Heavy Rain, Flooding, High Winds - 21st November onward

[Gibby]

Severe Weather Warnings have been issued for Saturday and Sunday now for heavy rain and gales down here in the SW. Worrying times for some folks down here.

I have issued a further weather warning to my website covering my little patch.

[J10]

Julian-the NMM rainfall charts are 'back to front'?

Indeed they were

Now Corrected,

[VillagePlank]

Well it's certainly blowing strong up here on Bluebell Hill! And it's not even in the warning: somewhere between Beaufort 6 and 7 at the minute. Wouldn't be surprised to get to 8/9 poss gusts to 10 before the evening's out.

All quiet here. Panic over :lol:

[knightrider]

Well all I can say is what an end to the working day it was for me, I managed to stay relatively dry for the most part then around 2pm I noticed the sky starting to turn darker then at about 3pm the heavens opened and the wind really started squalling up gusting to around 45mph (my guess)! Looks like tommorow afternoon things could start gettting pretty wild here in SE. Met Office have gusts of upto 45-50mph for my location tommorow evening but I'm actually looking towards Saturday night's/Sunday's low with particular interest as it comes directly up from the south around the Bay of Biscay area and with a central pressure of 984mb as things stand and it could intensify more in the next 48 hours, that's still some way off though so let's just get through tommorow 1st.

[IanM]

I'm supposed to be heading to the Cotswolds tomorrow to film the Winter Forecast video with GP - I can see this being one of those 'check the charts endlessly before I actually get in the car' trips. It's looking very grim, saturated ground and 70mph+ gusts normally lead to trees coming down - on top of the expected torrential rain. Potentially a very bad situation for any areas prone to flooding, or already under water.

[Chris K]

roads in south gloucestershire are atrocious this evening with many country lanes and even main roads closed. just took me 1.5 hours to do a 20 minute journey home from work....

Tomorrows forecast will certainly be worrying for my local area as some homes today already flooded, especially those living near catchment areas.

[peterf]

anyone know if the chap with the mobile weather station and live stream is still on here.

weather events i think?

[Paul]

Hi Peter, he's still about, I just dropped him an email to see if he has any plans to stream tomorrow, so will let you know if so

[peterf]

thanks Paul.

[Zenarcher]

Here's my thoughts on Thursday using the high res model NMM

4am Thursday - Gusts across Ireland and Western Scotland touching 55mph,

10am Thursday - Front moves East and gets stronger gusts now around 65mph but look to the far South West of England around 70mph there,

1pm Thursday - Gusts around 65mph move more inland,

5pm Thursday - Gusts still around 65mph head more South East,

A lot of rainfall totals over the next 24 hours,

As for Sunday's low ECM still shows it something to watch,

[Matty M]

Hi Folks, i think Sunday poses a serious risk to some parts of the UK.

Obviously still an outside chance but possible for a severe storm to push northeastwards.

A few GFS Ensembles are quite extreme.

This one the most extreme for my region but numerous extreme for many parts of England.

[WorsleySnow]

Looks like my weekly drive home from Wiltshire to Manchester tomorrow evening maybe best postponed for a couple of hours!! Avon is flooding badly at Staverton, water heights at Bradford-on-Avon are as high as I've seen them without flooding the town. Still plenty more to come tomorrow and the weekend!!

[pyrotech]

Well here it comes, Thursdays unwanted rain and gales

[andy100]

Well here it comes, Thursdays unwanted rain and gales

i want it

[Liam J]

Wind speeds are increasing all the time over western areas, getting quite windy around many of the coastal locations now with mean speeds around 30mph and even stronger over the Western Isles.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Quite a lot of strikes being detected on the satellite analysis ahead of the front.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Liam J

[pyrotech]

i want it

I love any exciting, unusual or just interesting weather too, I mean unwanted in respect of water table and those already or at risk of flooding.

I can not imagine how distressing it will be for those affected and unlikely to get cleared before xmas.

The weather itself is fantastic, just the effect i feel this will have on many lives.

I expect fairly widespread flooding by tomorrow night and if that comes off on weekend i would expect more to be in misery.

Myself i expect a full evening of flooding with multiple call outs with our pumps going full pelt, Maybe even our high volume national ressilence pumps deployed.

[pyrotech]

Ship at 47.90 -10.60 reporting wind speeds of 36.9KNTS

http://www.floodwarn.co.uk/buoys.htm

Edited November 21, 2012 by pyrotech

[TonyH]

i want it

Me too! Love heavy rain and gales!

[AWD]

You can see here;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

The weekends developing low which could cause yet more trouble for areas that really don't need it.

[Convective]

What are the chances of the sferics still being emitted from this system approaching now when it's passed over Ireland?

[Nick F]

Have just issued a severe convective forecast for tomorrow's squall line - MODERATE risk:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Liam J]

Not seen a moderate warning for quite a while, certainly going to be wild tomorrow.... Be careful what your all doing tomorrow guys!

Winds are really beginning to increase here and over many western locations .

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Liam J]

Severe weather weather warning issued by TORRO - http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2012/019

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 23:40GMT on Wednesday November 21st 2012

Valid from/until: 00:00 - 02:00GMT on Thursday 22nd/Friday 23rd November 2012 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Eire

N Ireland

England, Wales, Scotland, IoM, Channel Is

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 70mph; torrential rain; isolated CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

A large upper trough to the west of the British Isle will move slowly eastwards whilst a well-marked cold front also moves eastwards. A powerful warm conveyor belt ahead of the front will tend to back as the upper trough sharpens, increasing low-level lift up and over the frontal surface. Forced line 'convection' is expected along the surface front, although the evolution of this is expected to be complex, and it may break up into several lines. Strong flow ahead of and along these lines may allow for misocyclones to run up the frontal zone - where any low-level convergence/lift is maximised, tornadoes are possible. The highest threat appears to be across parts of Eire, Wales, and SW England.

Very gusty winds are also likely along and ahead of the frontal zone.

Given the uncertainties over the evolution and also instability ahead of the front, a discussion has been issued rather than a watch. However, this forecast is unlikely to be updated on Thursday, due to work commitments - however, it is possible that a somewhat higher tornado threat could develop, should the line convection become well-organised.

Forecaster: RPK

[Convective]

Sounds like its all happening tomorrow while guess where I'll be!? School -,- No doubt if anything happens, I will miss it...

[Liam J]

SkyWarn UK - http://www.skywarn.org.uk/

Last Update: 2230UTC Wednesday 21st November 2012

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #064

ISSUED: 2230UTC WEDNESDAY 21ST NOVEMBER 2012 (GJ/SG/RB/SM)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

ENGLAND

WALES

NORTHERN IRELAND

WESTERN SCOTLAND

CHANNEL ISLANDS

IN EFFECT FROM 0000UTC THURSDAY 22ND UNTIL 0600UTC FRIDAY 23RD NOVEMBER 2012

MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPPER JET BRINGING STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...GALES...STRONG GUSTS...BRIEF FUNNELS/TORNADOES

DISCUSSION:

A STRONG AND MATURE LOW CENTRED BY ICELAND, COUPLED WITH A CYCLONIC UPPER JET FORCES A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UNITED KINGDOM. WIND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CREATE SQUALL LINE CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED KINGDOM. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS OF UP TO 45MPH OVER HIGH GROUND IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH WEST ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSE RAINFALL RESULTS IN 20MM ACCUMULATIONS IN 3 HOURS WITH TOTALS OF OVER 40MM LIKELY FOR THE SOUTH-WEST, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ENGLAND WHILE 50MM CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WALES AND THE WEST MIDLANDS. STRONG HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF FUNNELS/TORNADOES OR OTHERWISE ENCOURAGE STRONG GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.