Model Output Discussion: 12Z (22/11/12) And On...

[Downburst]

I know someone whose wife is quite big at the MetO and apparently all the main forecasters are away next week at a conference. We may well see a rather "lighter" than average week from them while these folk are away!

over her eon telly Ireland one of the more senior presenters showed the December 1st map and outlined the polar air mass. Said why not check you elderly neighbours heating system out as it will be several degrees below normal for the next 10 days according to the medium range forecast. So that's the Irish all set for the cold It better happen now

[chionomaniac]

New thread coming soon, so finish posting now.....

[chionomaniac]

New thread here

Hurry up Phil!

[phil nw.]

The 12z NAEF`s ht.anomls show the Atlantic ridge/Svalbard high link up cemented by T156hrs and keeps the pattern through the rest of the run.

some reassurance that inspite of any operational differences around T96-144hrs it looks likely that a colder north easterly flow will emerge.

GFS/ECM T240hrs ht anomls also confirm this picture.

As TEITS alluded to earlier a deep cold easterly is not yet suggested with the low ht anoml around the UK we are likely to be under the influence of the trough for a while.

We need that to ease a little further south to allow a colder flow to develop but let`s get the change in and then see how the pattern evolves.

OK ED.i`l stick it on the new one.