Model Output Discussion: 12Z (22/11/12) And On...

[Cheshire Freeze]

The energy from that low to the west is already beginning to disrupt at 120hrs on the ECM.

It might not look as good as the UKMO for the same time but certainly looks like it will evolve differently from the GFS.

It's cutting it fine Nick!

[Geordiesnow]

it seems every single model doesnt know whats going on! there is a trend but the trend is for a weak cooler period or a short cold period followed by a break down. I certainly am not going to read anything further than 96 hrs. People following the charts must be having a break down there have been no consistancy in an overall pattern.

Also I must ask the question why people bin a milder run and strongly believe a 2010 or a similar event is going to happen. I think a step back and think short term is the way forward

It would seem more and more certain that we will get at least a cool(although not especially cold) Northerly for the beginning of next week but with low pressure near by, eastern areas could well be just cold and wet, but western areas will be in the slightly colder air with the risk of a few showers into Northern and Western parts. Detail is hard to pin down but the models has been at least consistent with this set up.

Its just what happens after that is where the uncertainty lies and there will be plenty of changes for sure so for that reason, I'm not concerned by the GFS charts, even if the ECM shows similar, I won't be too worried.

[chionomaniac]

Phew ECM takes the UKMO option

[January Snowstorm]

ECM @144hrs, pop the Corks!!

-16uppers over Norway

Edited November 23, 2012 by January Snowstorm

[Southender]

That will do nicely. What a lovely sight to see the PV smashed in half.

Edited November 23, 2012 by Shrimper

[Continental Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif LOL relief all round our friend the greenie low just melts away 2-0 to the euros

[Guest]

I won't spoil it but check out BOM

http://www.meteociel...bome_cartes.php

Biff baff BOM indeed

Not only has the model watching been interesting but watching the model watchers is also proving to be very interesting.

Still some lovely charts out there, although I can see where some of the concerns of the southern members might come from, these two from the NOGAPS 12z at +180hrs will look tasty or 'orrible depending where you live:

[Barry12]

LETS POP OPEN THE CORK, P.S I ALWAYS THOUGHT THE ECMWF WAS THE BEST ANYWAY.

ukmo + ecmwf = OUTNUMBERED GFS LOOSES THE FIGHT.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wow, my heart was in my mouth at 120 hours. Absolutely NO room for manouvre though now.....the 120hrs chart is as close as I'd like to see that SW thanks!

[Methuselah]

[phil nw.]

Phew ECM takes the UKMO option

You could almost hear the collective sigh`s of relief!

Seriously though it does show how fine a line it is to revert to a cold setup-what one little shortwave can do to alter the flow.

[Chris D]

Because of that weird low evolution on the UKMO that I mentioned earlier, I'd rather take the ECM at T144 defo!

Edited November 23, 2012 by Chris D

[Cheshire Freeze]

LETS POP OPEN THE CORK, P.S I ALWAYS THOUGHT THE ECMWF WAS THE BEST ANYWAY.

ukmo + ecmwf = OUTNUMBERED GFS LOOSES THE FIGHT.

Sometimes I despair. Stop tempting fate with certainties that aren't certainties! We're still at 120 hours out regarding this Atlantic low situation....champagne on ice until 72 hours out please

[Cloud 10]

Phew ECM takes the UKMO option

http://www.meteociel...12/ECH1-144.GIF

[weather eater]

I’m sure you are all breathing a huge sigh of relief but remember this is just the next instalment, it’s not closure more a kind of to be continued. Come back for the thrilling episode that is the 18z.

Edited November 23, 2012 by weather eater

[Southender]

[Snowmadsam]

OK folks, and breathe....

well that was VERY nerve wrecking.....

ECM looks fandabedoozy!

I have never laughed so much...hahahahahahaha...

on the floor..gone

[Duane S.]

More fantastic charts on offer today! No real change, a few spanners thrown in the works by certain models/runs and few taken back out of the yesterday's works from other ones!

GFS 12z powering up Atlantic low pressures again? Still looks like the best bet is to send a small shard of energy across SE to phase in with the low country's low pressure system, thereafter the mean trough should pull back NW and allow full on ridging. Thereafter nobody can assume any details!

One thing, I know the BOM is regarded as cannon fodder but it has been much more resolute of a cold setup in amongst much to'ing and fro'ing from its more illustrious contempories.No doubt though it will change its mind just as we see all the other models agree, the usual!

[bobbydog]

are we happy yet?

[ITSY]

moments like that make this forum totally worth it! Hilarious scenes!

[Dandy]

Yep

[nick sussex]

It's cutting it fine Nick!

Lol!

Yes but the key is that you had the energy disrupting north and south so less interaction with the troughing near the UK, however it goes downhill at 168hrs with the troughing too far north.

We need the Arctic high to be ridging south/sw, here it starts to head se to the right of the trough and looks a bit of a longhaul to get the colder uppers in.

The UKMO is far and away the best looking output of the big 3, the ECM and GFS both have their problems, after the initial relief at 144hrs its a bit underwhelming at 168hrs from the ECM.

[LomondSnowstorm]

ECM once again seems to take a slightly different approach to the trough, bringing in a northerly first:

similar to the 00Z:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

168 chart looks good (ish) uppers only around -4C, not great for convective snow at low levels

[Tim Bland]

It was always going to be the case when the GFS was shown to be out of kilt with the ensembles ESP the control run. I don't often view the GFS output just the ensembles and find that way it's less painful. GFS will continue to throw in shortwaves and move the HLB around, 18z could show -15c and 2 foot of snow but I wouldn't be jumping for joy until it was near the ensemble mean.