Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Because it activates with shortwave trough from W later and that's part of the forecast complexity

Thanks for all your insight Ian , your a big help to us weather freaks ! When you hinted that it could be 2cm or more , did you mean the uncertainties are not just the areas affected, but it actually may be a lot more troublesome than first thought? Sorry to ask .

[fergieweather]

Exactly. It's falling as snow now into Nottingham area towards Derbyshire

[lfcdude]

Ian you got any money on a white Christmas? You think its a good punt this year? Our not?

[AWD]

Exactly. It's falling as snow now into Nottingham area towards Derbyshire

Suggestive to me that the NAE could be nearer the mark here then, with the main risk of snowfall a tad further east focussing on Central Southern England & into South East.

[fergieweather]

Thanks for all your insight Ian , your a big help to us weather freaks ! When you hinted that it could be 2cm or more , did you mean the uncertainties are not just the areas affected, but it actually may be a lot more troublesome than first thought? Sorry to ask .

Both, albeit highest totals progged in any of the 4km suite only tallying 3cm to spot 5cm near London; dusting at most for many but we give 2-3cm a 30% prob based on MOGREPS-R running off NAE, but broad areal scope makes detail impossible in local forecasts

[slinky1989]

Because it activates with shortwave trough from W later and that's part of the forecast complexity

Cheers for that Ian, as already said, always interesting and an advantage to have your input!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Exactly. It's falling as snow now into Nottingham area towards Derbyshire

On right well that's earlier than thought .

I'm guessing as it reacts with the troughs almost anything can happen , ie increase in size and intensity, or neither !

[AWD]

Meto have an advisory out for much of southern England;

http://t.co/Nj3Ej9l9

[fergieweather]

On right well that's earlier than thought .

I'm guessing as it reacts with the troughs almost anything can happen , ie increase in size and intensity, or neither !

Well, the diurnal temperature fall obviously plays a key part but actual settling into early am anywhere will also have a ppn intensity component to bring WBFL right down to the deck for more prolonged phases of snowfall

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well, the diurnal temperature fall obviously plays a key part but actual settling into early am anywhere will also have a ppn intensity component to bring WBFL right down to the deck for more prolonged phases of snowfall

Right ok , albeit things do look less marginal this evening than first thought , which is a nice supprise, I'm going for 10cm been 700ft Asl !! Only kiddin everyone , wouldn't wanto start that rumour would I !!

[124alex]

whens it due to arrive this band of rain/sleet/snow etc?

[fergieweather]

Latest update continues focus to E with significant escalation to N-NW of London but with innumerable uncertainties remaining

[PolarWarsaw]

Hi Ian - completely the wrong thread here, but what do you think about prospects up towards Birmingham and the surrounding areas? The 18z NAE showed a spell of 'pink' or 'snow' over the central swathe of the Midlands at around 5-6am. Is this something you'd concur with?

[A.J]

well, it's a rain/sleet mixture here, which given the parmeters and elevation here is quite disapppointing...Everything is to the east towards London & the SE....oh, how I loathe them....lol

[Snowangel-MK]

well, it's a rain/sleet mixture here, which given the parmeters and elevation here is quite disapppointing...Everything is to the east towards London & the SE....oh, how I loathe them....lol

It's snowing in MK ...........*runs and hides*

[farmeryellow]

First snow of the winter!

Not a lot but its snow

[lfcdude]

All east. Damn

[Iceberg]

Yep se has hogged it all. Damn them....

Still plenty of opportunities lie ahead and the sw will come good with the bands running up against the great easterly beast, then the sw will have days of steady snow whilst the rest of the country gets nothing..(only half joking)

[bellanite]

Dense rain is about as good as it got here. Hey ho it's only 5 days into winter :-)

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Plenty up here - 4>5cms "Deep and crisp and eeeeeeven......"

[Nights King]

Yep se has hogged it all. Damn them....

Still plenty of opportunities lie ahead and the sw will come good with the bands running up against the great easterly beast, then the sw will have days of steady snow whilst the rest of the country gets nothing..(only half joking)

What a let down! I expected a flurry at least! I don't think south west has much a snow chance to be fair in coming week at least or so, channel lows or just lows stalling in right position doesnt't happen very often, we shall get dry cold followed by milder wet incursions is my bet with brief transitional snow possible if lucky at times.

Back to FI chasing the dream at +200 odd

Edited December 5, 2012 by mullender83

[Iceberg]

What a let down! I expected a flurry at least! I don't think south west has much a snow chance to be fair in coming week at least or so, channel lows or just lows stalling in right position doesnt't happen very often, we shall get dry cold followed by milder wet incursions is my bet with brief transitional snow possible if lucky at times.

Back to FI chasing the dream at +200 odd

I am very optimistic tbh for the next 2weeks, its the kind of set up the sw excels at. No doubt Kent will be measuring snow by the ft, but before Christmas we will be fed with snow and cold in the sw.

[Polar Bear]

Yes I can confirm that we have some snow falling from the sky. A wee dusting on the surfaces but mainly icy more than anything. I think that has only happened in last fifteen mins. I doubt it will last much longer... Good thing is means I can wear my coat I bought especially for when it was This cold! Hurrah!!

[coram]

Yes I can confirm that we have some snow falling from the sky. A wee dusting on the surfaces but mainly icy more than anything. I think that has only happened in last fifteen mins. I doubt it will last much longer... Good thing is means I can wear my coat I bought especially for when it was This cold! Hurrah!!

Well, if you got something where you are Polar, I would expect to get something here in north Hampshire by 7.30am. The precipitation is moving on a south-east trajectory however and therefore I might just miss out. Keep us posted on what's happening with you.

[coram]

Snowing now. Decent sized flakes and lying. I don't suppose we will get much here in north Hampshire, but I am hoping for a covering.