Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[Stoxs]

If you look on the net weather forum there is a whole area for learing and understanding what things are and how they work,

John Holmes explains things much better than i do best to read what he has written.

As said there are many factors to understand to see if there is potential for snow, any way i am off back to the models to see the 18z stagger home,

[khodds]

Oh god... Anyone seen Ian's post in the MOD thread... What could this mean?! I can't stay up for this.... It's past my bedtime I have model fatigue!

[legritter]

Was talking to one of our receptionists today who hates the cold and snow, but recounted the events of 1962-63 to me, her and her husband had gone to the Bristol Hippodrome on Boxing Day 62 and they left and went to catch the bus home, however they got to the bus station and there was a sign up saying that all buses over the mendips had been cancelled due to heavy snow, at this point there was no snow in Bristol! They managed to get a B and B for the night, and next day, still no buses, so they walked all the way home from Whitchurch to Bristol Hill - it took them all day through deep snow! By the time they were half way down the Bristol hill to Wells, they met her cousin who was driving a digger, digging the road out who gave her a lift down to the village they lived in the other side of Wells....

Can you imagine that? Amazing. If something like that happened now... I really don't know what we would do!

Like to see it happen though!

i remember it well ,lived in bristol then ,rain was replaced by snow mid evening and it snowed all night and most of following day .it finished i think tea time on 27th december .the 28th and early 29th it was a little milder with a slight thaw ,during the day on 29th the wind again turned into the east ,a deep low over biscay moved north/east then east along channell resulting in blizzards and vast amounts of snow most parts cut off .further falls followed and most days were below freezing even by day .further snow early in feb was followed by high pressure clear skys and v low temp ,but then mostly dry .the boxing day snow was brought about by a complex trough of low pressure moving down from north ,the colder air undercutting the system well ahead of the trough i can remember the size of the flakes huge , so much moisture in the air with the temp not excessively cold allowing flakes to stick to each other . i can remember my mother shouting out ,get back in bed ,i was lamp post watching all night .it does look a fair bet for next week for some fun and games,hope everyone gets a bit of the white magic .but could be an interesting day later tomorrow if synoptics pan out but they would have to be spot on .cheers

[lfcdude]

Oh god... Anyone seen Ian's post in the MOD thread... What could this mean?! I can't stay up for this.... It's past my bedtime I have model fatigue!

Am anticipating a key step change in UKMO modified output and will update on this before midnight when the 4-5d full analysis is with us. Interesting times, folks.

Here we go again....

[khodds]

Cheers LeGritter, I love hearing tales of the good old winters

[khodds]

Did anyone else see the national beeb weather? A hint to a long winter maybe?

[coldframe]

I'd love to try and explain... But I wouldn't be very good - sorry! Basically there are certain weather charts that show the different ' lines' of DAM... Basically we need to be under the 528 DAM line or it needs to be past us to allow for snowfall.... Ill let somebody else explain it better though! Sorry!

I'm new to this really, but the Fax chart is a good example- it shows the DAM lines as dashes.In winter,lLook for the 546 as the mild air usually just in front of an area of low pressure then look (usually) northwards for the 528 (behind the cold front).

[-uksnow-]

Did anyone else see the national beeb weather? A hint to a long winter maybe?

I didnt, what did they say?

[mrsmall]

Did anyone else see the national beeb weather? A hint to a long winter maybe?

Also the graphics stopped before the ppn got too far into the east of the region. Poss uncertainty as to what may happen?

Edit. Points west fcst

Hmmm dew points look high and surface temps so I am probably talking out of my xxxxx

Edited December 5, 2012 by mrsmall

[khodds]

The national forecast said stay tuned to your local radio stations for weather updates (meaning tomorrow) then said something like (can't rem exact words) we would be wise to keep doing so as there is a long way to go yet.. Meaning winter

[katemart]

I'd love to try and explain... But I wouldn't be very good - sorry! Basically there are certain weather charts that show the different ' lines' of DAM... Basically we need to be under the 528 DAM line or it needs to be past us to allow for snowfall.... Ill let somebody else explain it better though! Sorry!

No probs, guys - I will carry on reading without understanding and just grab hold of the things I want to read - like "wow" and "dump" :-)

Just trying to give my brother- and sister-in-law in NZ a heads-up as they are supposed to be flying into Heathrow on the 15th! If this comes off they'll be lucky to get any closer than Marseille....

[mrsmall]

Also the graphics stopped before the ppn got too far into the east of the region. Poss uncertainty as to what may happen?

Edit. Points west fcst

Hmmm dew points look high and surface temps so I am probably talking out of my xxxxx

Seems there's a chance.... Gfs 18z for Friday morning showing......

[Dampdorset82]

Seems there's a chance.... Gfs 18z for Friday morning showing......

Nice to see the whole of dorset missing out once again!!

On the upside Dorset could get a lot of snow from the easterly set up

[Dampdorset82]

Nice

Well I don't know about you lot, but after todays charts, I think a small Sloe gin is in order

You guys in Hampshire have small measures lol

The charts look great a long way off but its rare we even see charts like this so defo worth making a fuss over

[SupaSnowy]

Don't think we have any chance down here and me being right on the coast. Everything against us down here. Bring on next week.

[kumquat]

For info guys, DAM in the context of 528 Dam air is not "Dry Air Mass". It stands for decametres (a unit of 10 metre distance) and is a value given to the "Thickness" between two boundaries of air at different pressures - usually measured in HectoPascals (hPA). 1 hPA=1 millibar (or thereabouts). It's all to do with the relationship between pressure, density and temperature of air masses and the distance between differing pressure boundaries.

We're usually talking about the 1000hPA (1 bar or relative sea level pressure) to 500hPA pressure layers so, for example 540 dam would mean a distance between the two layers of 5400 metres and 528 dam would give 5280 metres between the boundary layers. As variables of pressure, density and temperature change, so does the dam. Generally lower dam air is associated with colder temperatures within this layer so we see snow chances increased as the dam value decreases.

Or something like that. (very simplistically put and I'd have to dig the text books out for better!)

Edited December 6, 2012 by kumquat

[lfcdude]

Well of to bed now.. How low will it drop tonight? -3.9 as of 2.10 am...

[kumquat]

Hey lfcdude - you're always in a better place than me for lower temps (further inland and bit better altitude). About -2.5 here probably reaching -3.5/-4.0 by morning I'd say. - 6c for you?

All looking good for later next week. I'll be dreaming of channel lows bumping into the cold air mass that looks likely to settle in. Catch ya later.

[Iceberg]

For us in the sw everything is still all systems go for next week, Monday is the start and only t96 away and coming down, on Tuesday we start to get they temps struggling to get much above freezing and by wed everywhere inc Cornwall still proved to be bloody freezing.

For today and Friday morning, looking less and less likely tht we will see snow IMHO,always a slim possibility and even then only after rain so unlikely to settle.

[fromey]

Morning all.

-4.0c here a bit lower than i was expecting.

fromey

[AWD]

Cold & frosty start to the morning.

Temperature currently -2.1c

[jessandjon]

Everything covered in frost but garden temp says 2 ?

[khodds]

Minimum of -4.1c currently -1.7c ...sure I saw a stray snow flake a few mins ago... Tired tho so probably imagining, and there is nothing on the radar!

[Frosty_wsm]

Nice frost this morning, puddles frozen so certainly slippery out there at the moment, I know car temps aren't accurate but currently reading 0.5 on Weston seafront.

[Andy Bown]

Everything covered in frost but garden temp says 2 ?

Frost can form at a temp as high as +4c in my experience if the surface is cold enough.