Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[latitude]

Far too early to talk of this, FI is around 120 atm, could go either way yet.

Yeah your right. But it seems a slack NE flow for next week could happen. That means any showers in the East will not make our region. Then we could be looking at a wet breakdown with transitional front edge snow. We want the cold block to stay strong, I havent seen it yet. Even in 2010 the cold spell ended the day after boxing day with an Atlantic system. Right now we are knowhere near 2010 synoptics.

[Nights King]

Well seems my prediction was right. An Atlantic breakdown next week, with snow to rain. Disappointing once again for us in the SW.

It is far too early to think like that although I would favour the atlantic sadly, lets wait though until it starts before we throw in the towel.

[latitude]

Shoot me down if you like. But this is the way I see it. Some cold days on Monday to Wednesday. Breakdown Thursday with southerly winds after maybe a bit of wet snow. This is turning into a non event for us in SW. Very disppointed once again.

[124alex]

Hate the east 7.5c and blue sky here!

[fromey]

Morning all,

here we go again, talking about a break down before anything has happened!!

it may happen like some people have said but then again it might not, nobody has a crystal ball, so just chill out and see what happens.

fromey

[Bristawl Si]

Shoot me down if you like. But this is the way I see it. Some cold days on Monday to Wednesday. Breakdown Thursday with southerly winds after maybe a bit of wet snow. This is turning into a non event for us in SW. Very disppointed once again.

"Turning into a non event" - i think you're talking about next week - it hasn't actually happened yet.

And looking at the charts for next Thursday/Friday/Saturday .......at the moment there seems to a potential snow event that will probably change over the next few days of model runs. IF it did happen it would have varying outcomes for South Westerners, depending on how far any less cold air gets.

Let's just wait and see and enjoy this weekend for some chill out time.

Ciao...for now.

[latitude]

"Turning into a non event" - i think you're talking about next week - it hasn't actually happened yet.

And looking at the charts for next Thursday/Friday/Saturday .......at the moment there seems to a potential snow event that will probably change over the next few days of model runs. IF it did happen it would have varying outcomes for South Westerners, depending on how far any less cold air gets.

Let's just wait and see and enjoy this weekend for some chill out time.

Ciao...for now.

Fair enough. Thursday next week is a long way off, but I remember the more experienced members saying how important it was to get the cold synoptics within 144. The 'supposed' breakdown is within 144. If the cold can hold out we could be in for lots of snow. Im just saying how I feel, I hate snow to rain events, thats why I say it could be a non event. A few days of sunny cold weather and frosts then snow to rain in a few hours is definately a non event in my book. I hope this wont happen, snow to snow will suit me just fine.

[Dean E]

Why are people saying that this cold spell is going to break down... It's only 2 runs! GFS tends to move things towards the west with time and I think in the SW, you guys could be in the sweet spot, if the Atlantic breaks through. Being on the battle ground is a tricky situation and a high risk, but it cold deliver high rewards.

I think you guys could do very well from this...

SM

[kernowman]

Is this forum going to be split into two with the upcoming event as previous years, i.e a real South West region and a real South Central region?

[latitude]

Is this forum going to be split into two with the upcoming event as previous years, i.e a real South West region and a real South Central region?

Haha yes. I have said this before, cornwall and the Cotswolds are worlds apart!! But all taken as the SW!

Edited December 7, 2012 by latitude

[latitude]

UKMO view based on 00z data:

" 3. Days 8-10 - Friday to Sunday : WEATHER: S’ern, E’ern and some central areas are most likely to continue to see a mix of bright spells and wintry showers at first. However, signs are that temperatures may start to recover a little from the SW, with an increasing chance of more unsettled conditions starting to edge N and E across parts of the UK through this period, initially the far SW most likely to be affected. This may also lead to further significant snowfall on the boundary between the two markedly different airmasses. Mostly light or moderate winds at first, but perhaps turning windier at times from the SW. Temperatures widely below normal initially with widespread frost, and icy patches, but perhaps a gradual recovery towards nearer-normal temperatures from the SW.

4. Trend for Days 10-15 : Most areas probably staying colder than normal, but with unsettled weather more likely to spread N and E at times. Most unsettled conditions probably in the S and W. This leads to a risk of snow at times, especially, but perhaps not exclusively, on hills from the Midlands N’wards.

5. Discussion : Update based on 07/00Z data: Very similar signals. Increasing spread though slightly better overall ENS agreement for an increasingly cyclonic type and a possible transition to a slightly more progressive type. This implies frontal systems pushing up against the blocking pattern over western Europe with potential for significant snowfall though details very uncertain. Longevity of any change in type is also very uncertain and at this stage the trend is left mostly unchanged."

Read Ian F's post below your post - that gives a Pro's view and is NOT without some encouragement!

All sounds like a wintry mix for the SW Bristle boy. Not the proper cold we were expecting.

[Andrew snow hope]

Hi People, I am located in Reading and never really know if i should be on the South East pages or Central Southern. Can anyone give me some direction.

[Bristawl Si]

All sounds like a wintry mix for the SW Bristle boy. Not the proper cold we were expecting.

Agreed. But the "proper cold" was only really showing up on a couple of days' runs.

I would agree though that even some of the more experienced posters on NW have been getting a bit over excited with some model runs, in last couple of weeks (and maybe they should know better).

Anyway just try and chill this w/e - get out with your mates, have a few beers, a laugh, a dance and grab a kebab or Miss Millies at 3 in the morning! I'm off down Glos Rd (bristol) tonite for a bite to eat, a few bevvies and some live music in one of the bars.

Ciao

[latitude]

Agreed. But the "proper cold" was only really showing up on a couple of days' runs.

I would agree though that even some of the more experienced posters on NW have been getting a bit over excited with some model runs, in last couple of weeks (and maybe they should know better).

Anyway just try and chill this w/e - get out with your mates, have a few beers, a laugh, a dance and grab a kebab or Miss Millies at 3 in the morning! I'm off down Glos Rd (bristol) tonite for a bite to eat, a few bevvies and some live music in one of the bars.

Ciao

Have a good night mate. Things could look very different on Sundays 0z's!

[Wilxy]

There was a bit change overnight in terms of charts.

The way i see it the atlantic wants to come back and that shortwave over europe never helps, so the high never gets going strong enough, things can still change again tho.

[latitude]

There was a bit change overnight in terms of charts.

The way i see it the atlantic wants to come back and that shortwave over europe never helps, so the high never gets going strong enough, things can still change again tho.

It was the so called pub run that spotted the shortwave over europe. No more binning of the 18 and 06 anymore then!

[Iceberg]

I think people need to read Ians post a bit more he says "but perhaps a gradual recovery towards nearer-normal temperatures from the SW."

i.e he says that 8-10 days away we might see a slow recovery to normal temperatures, but equally from that you can read you might not and its so very far away. Now if says day 5 warming up to average i'll think any cold spell is drawing to an end.

Edited December 7, 2012 by gottolovethisweather
changed type so easier to read

[Wilxy]

It was the so called pub run that spotted the shortwave over europe. No more binning of the 18 and 06 anymore then!

Yep and its followed on in recent runs, intresting times either way.

[Polar Bear]

Hi People, I am located in Reading and never really know if i should be on the South East pages or Central Southern. Can anyone give me some direction.

Both is your best bet! Although I do tend to favour this one the South west and central southern england as peeps tend to be alot more knowledgeable, helpful and courteous.

[Sungirl]

Is this forum going to be split into two with the upcoming event as previous years, i.e a real South West region and a real South Central region?

That would be ideal altho I like the posts from people in Newbury as the weather often hits them before it hits me!

Hi People, I am located in Reading and never really know if i should be on the South East pages or Central Southern. Can anyone give me some direction.

I am in Bracknell so slightly further east than you, but I wouldn't say I am east... I am south central...

[AWD]

Judging by the hysteria in the Model Thread I take it our easterly is disappearing then?

To be honest, with the obvious ups & downs in there it's fast becoming a pointless thread. Think ill stick to this, much more mature thread and our very own Ian for next weeks events.

Less cold here today but definetly not mild.

Edited December 7, 2012 by AWD

[latitude]

Judging by the hysteria in the Model Thread I take it our easterly is disappearing then?

To be honest, with the obvious ups & downs in there it's fast becoming a pointless thread. Think ill stick to this, much more nature thread and our very own Ian for next weeks events.

Less cold here today but definetly not mild.

There was never and easterly. A slack NE flow, but the cold uppers do make it across the country just.

[AWD]

A couple of notes from Ian on twitter;

Many of you ask re headlines of cold in papers today. For W Country, progressively much colder next week but largely bright, dry & frosty...

...but with considerable uncertainty about how conditions will then shape-up for our region towards end of next working week & weekend.

Maxima from Tuesday onwards likely only 1-3C as cold establishes; hard frosts; now definitely a good window to check antifreeze etc...!!

Very cold temperatures likely after Tuesday then, with interest still to be decided at the end of next week.

As long as it is cold, there is always a chance of snow unlike when it is mild.

[Wilxy]

Lets see what the 12z shows, i still think there may be some more twists yet whether thats for cold or less cold(Not mild).

I like the idea of lows trying to attack from southwest, if the pattern shifted further south it would be perfect for a undercutting low, and still time for that to happen yet.

[khodds]

I'm remaining positive. Its all swings and roundabouts. Its going to get cold. That's a bonus already IMO. Hopefully the 12z will bring an upgrade, and the toys will remain in the pram!