Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[dancing daisy]

If we're guessing temps tonight then my money is on 1c IMBY. I had a few days of scraping frost off the car but now it's relatively balmy for the time of year.

[Iceberg]

Pretty nae charts coming up at 10am with a bit of luck. First indication from the mets short term models about what will happen on thurs for the sw(part from rain as some rain will definitely happen)

[gottolovethisweather]

What a let down! I expected a flurry at least!

Did you Mullender? You seem to change your mind as often as the err........ weather.

I had wet flakes before I woke as I can see some evidence and I would imagine the local downs (the real M4 barrier) achieved a brief covering.

Here's to other days.

[AWD]

Not a flake here unfortunetly, although it did look likely it was going further east late last night.

Ah well, at least the Model output is pretty darn good for next week, coming into the reliable timeframe now too. It does show these snow events can creep up out of no-where, west London areas could get up to 5cm, that didn't look likely 24 hours ago.

All eyes on Thursday now, then onto an interesting run up to Christmas. At least its keeping this thread going, if nothing else.

[gottolovethisweather]

I am very optimistic tbh for the next 2weeks, its the kind of set up the sw excels at. No doubt Kent will be measuring snow by the ft, but before Christmas we will be fed with snow and cold in the sw.

Indeed, lets leave him believing it never happens and when he's buried in the stuff and can't get out of his village, he'll wish he was a glass half-full chap like me and you.

Only jesting mull, I feel your pain, living just a minute south of that perceived barrier, which is the M4.

Your time will come, hell it'll probably snow in Penzance and on Southsea this year too.

Well, if you got something where you are Polar, I would expect to get something here in north Hampshire by 7.30am. The precipitation is moving on a south-east trajectory however and therefore I might just miss out. Keep us posted on what's happening with you.

Hi coram,

Here's a radar grab from about half an hour ago.

http://forum.netweat...60#entry2430447

Snowing now. Decent sized flakes and lying. I don't suppose we will get much here in north Hampshire, but I am hoping for a covering.

Whoops, I missed this. Well done you.

Edited December 5, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Wilxy]

Well are region just missed out this morning, ahh well its not gunna get me down, at least it we had a good fall of snow back in the beginning of november and the models looking very good for a easterly.

[AWD]

Bit of snow getting down into north Wales on Thursday. Think our best chance of anything could be some back edge snowfall Thursday night;

[Sungirl]

I GOT SNOW! Just a dusting but snow nonetheless.

Apparently it was around 7.30am - I wouldn't know as I wasn't quite up and rarely look out until I do the school run, unless I am expecting snow... which I wasn't!

[AWD]

Going to be a cold one tonight. A whiteout;

(a frosty whiteout of course).

[Nights King]

Bit of snow getting down into north Wales on Thursday. Think our best chance of anything could be some back edge snowfall Thursday night;

Ian F did post a comment reagrding this last night a couple of pages back saying that they don't expect anything from thursdays event except for rain.

[Wilxy]

Right so i think now is the time to get my weather station up and running again not sure where to put it tho.

Could see some very low temps tonight in some areas.

Edited December 5, 2012 by TomW

[AWD]

Wouldn't totally rule out back edge wet snowfall Thursday night yet;

Very marginal but it wouldn't take much to swing it either way. Lets see if we can muster up some short term upgrades over the next day or so.

If not, then not to worry, we have an easterly of epic proportions next week.

Edited December 5, 2012 by AWD

[slinky1989]

Well according to the radar it snowed here last night at 4:55am (so I certainly didn't see it) and only went on for half an hour.

All melted now of course though! You'd never have known it did at all!

Never mind, onto next week!

[gottolovethisweather]

Wouldn't totally rule out back edge wet snowfall Thursday night yet;

Very marginal but it wouldn't take much to swing it either way. Lets see if we can muster up some short term upgrades over the next day or so.

If not, then not to worry, we have an easterly of epic proportions next week.

Indeed AWD, as I suggested upon intimate studying of the ensembles, they never lie when within the reliable. It is only a risk but as you say, it is worth a heads up.

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2429442

Edited December 5, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

Wouldn't totally rule out back edge wet snowfall Thursday night yet;

Very marginal but it wouldn't take much to swing it either way. Lets see if we can muster up some short term upgrades over the next day or so.

If not, then not to worry, we have an easterly of epic proportions next week.

Easterlys are pleasant but they do just spell dry and cold for the west with occasional light flurry in east of our region. We need a decent trough embeded or a risky atlantic front? The east and south east always bed buried though.

[AWD]

Easterlys are pleasant but they do just spell dry and cold for the west with occasional light flurry in east of our region. We need a decent trough embeded or a risky atlantic front? The east and south east always bed buried though.

Dry & cold will do me for a while. Get the cold here, let it establish itself for a few days then start looking for snow.

Anyway, still a lot of twists & turns to come before any potential easterly. The fact the outlook is odds on to remain cold will always give us the chance for surprise snowfalls, as places further down the M4 have seen this morning.

[Wilxy]

Dry & cold will do me for a while. Get the cold here, let it establish itself for a few days then start looking for snow.

Anyway, still a lot of twists & turns to come before any potential easterly. The fact the outlook is odds on to remain cold will always give us the chance for surprise snowfalls, as places further down the M4 have seen this morning.

Agreed, amazing 06z run yes it doesn't show as much blocking towards scandi, but it still does and mainly its all gone west meaning theres a better block towards greenland which is a brilliant sign, overall i feel happy about it, can't help but get excited just affraid it will go pear shaped again.

[gottolovethisweather]

I know there is a relevant thread for this but I just wanted to copy this into this regaional.

UK Outlook for Monday 10 Dec 2012 to Wednesday 19 Dec 2012:

Through Monday, a band of rain is expected to affect central parts of the UK, edging south through Tuesday before dying out. Elsewhere, clearer conditions are expected on both days with sunny spells by day but some wintry showers affecting the north east. It will stay cold with widespread overnight frost and freezing fog in places. Thereafter, there is a greater level of uncertainty but wintry showers are possible in all areas, particularly the north and east, with perhaps some significant snow falls over eastern hills. Between these showers, it should be drier with some sunny spells. It is likely to remain cold, with widespread overnight frost and icy patches, and perhaps some freezing fog. There may, however, be some milder but wetter interludes towards the south and west.

Updated: 1113 on Wed 5 Dec 2012

Looks like a completely different winter is developing if compared to several over the last twenty years or so. Usual caveats apply of course but snow has been mentioned in every issued forecast for about two weeks now.

[AWD]

I know there is a relevant thread for this but I just wanted to copy this into this regaional.

UK Outlook for Monday 10 Dec 2012 to Wednesday 19 Dec 2012:

Through Monday, a band of rain is expected to affect central parts of the UK, edging south through Tuesday before dying out. Elsewhere, clearer conditions are expected on both days with sunny spells by day but some wintry showers affecting the north east. It will stay cold with widespread overnight frost and freezing fog in places. Thereafter, there is a greater level of uncertainty but wintry showers are possible in all areas, particularly the north and east, with perhaps some significant snow falls over eastern hills. Between these showers, it should be drier with some sunny spells. It is likely to remain cold, with widespread overnight frost and icy patches, and perhaps some freezing fog. There may, however, be some milder but wetter interludes towards the south and west.

Updated: 1113 on Wed 5 Dec 2012

Looks like a completely different winter is developing if compared to several over the last twenty years or so. Usual caveats apply of course but snow has been mentioned in every issued forecast for about two weeks now.

Certainly looking good. I wish they would get rid of that last sentence though, don't like that bit.

[Andy Bown]

What this morning shows, as did Sunday 4th November, is how difficult snow forecasting is!

Now a sparkling winter day with a harsh frost to come tonight after a day when we'll be luckyto see a 5c maximum. It's going to continue

to be a below average month temperature wise and at some stage we'll have proper snow potential rather than the slim chance it was today.

[Bristawl Si]

Certainly looking good. I wish they would get rid of that last sentence though, don't like that bit.

That last sentence though AWD could set us up for an attempt from the Atlantic to get back in - if we're on the 'boundary' of any attempt could mean snowfall...lots of ifs at this point but a plausible development further down the line.

[Iceberg]

Agree Andy snow forecasting is very very difficult, the enhanced feature in SE could so easily have come down our neck of the woods.

Longer term DP's are set to be 0 or below from T120 onwards, it will be a good indicator of whether the cold weather is pushed back or not to check this imho. 850's can be very misleading on an easterly as we pull in the very cold continental air, slider lows do not need 850s of -5 or above as its really all that happens below this level.

Its only worth talking about general trends for next week, but there is a persistent signal for a cold pool low to move across southern england(even though pressure might be high), this really is one of the best set ups for the sw. Also the signal for lows to come up against is a very cold setup as mentioned by the meto is fantastic.

Lots to be happy about and the serious chances start T120 and beyond, keep track and get your rest for a fantastic time when it comes.

[Dave Kightley]

Just watched the further outlook from BBC weather... no sign of a easterly between Monday and Wednesday with mild 14C

Looked pretty zonal actually.

[Dave Kightley]

12.45 Wednesday update on the bbc website is from one Sunday.... NO wonder! Must be putting on pat forecast to stop scarying the elderly

[fromey]

12.45 Wednesday update on the bbc website is from one Sunday.... NO wonder! Must be putting on pat forecast to stop scarying the elderly

Holy hell!!! dont do that, i dont think i can take much more

fromey