South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 27th 2012>

[Mrsf16]

-4C as I drove through Keymer this morning - the cold really seems to collect there.

So come on Coast have you not found any snow prediction charts to warm our hearts down here in the SE?

This is the best I could find for tomorrow afternoon.

I take it back Robin - you posted one as I was typing!

I prefer yours, I'm in the pink in yours!

[afcone]

NMM is now showing light snow for Meopham on Saturday. Still in with an outside chance, it'll be down to nowcasting I reckon.

[Reefseeker]

Scraping ice off the car and -1c on the car temperature thingy this morning in Surbiton, rose to the dizzy heights of 0 degrees once the sun was up driving through Heathrow, and stayed the same at 9.30 in Uxbridge. Looking out the 3rd floor window all the frost has melted now, but a lovely blue sky day with a proper criss-cross of vapour trails across the horizon, any smoke or steam from the buildings rising straight up.

Have a nice autumny-wintry day everyone.

[Floatylight]

-4C as I drove through Keymer this morning - the cold really seems to collect there.

So come on Coast have you not found any snow prediction charts to warm our hearts down here in the SE?

This is the best I could find for tomorrow afternoon.

I take it back Robin - you posted one as I was typing!

Oh so close!only a fag paper in it!upgrade anyone???

[Snowangel-MK]

My berries are still frozen here....I'm going to scrape the ice off the car and go out to buy mulled wine and crumpets now

[Mark Neal.]

The overnight GFS Run had something interesting moving down from the North on Wednesday, One to watch?

[gottolovethisweather]

Morning all. Lovely start to the day with a nice frost, lowest temperature was -2C. Currently -1.2C.

GFS 0z ensembles strikingly show the cold pattern continuing well into December, with Monday the exception:

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

What a solid trend that is now from the GFS, drawing attention to the white line as the mean on Ben's chart. I use the 12z as guidance and mainly just take note of the mean for trends, of course, when the control is consistently closer, it is more likely to be closer to the actual weather on the ground. However, to get to my point, I don't have a recent 12z for London to hand, but everyone should be able to see the only SIGNIFICANT blip, i.e (milder than usual?) in Temperatures is on Monday. I can illustrate my point by using the UPPER AIR temperatures only as below.

Incidentally the precipitation is a fairly solid trend too, there will be days with wintry precipitation, but calling SNOW at this range would be folly, however the chance is relatively high, starting as soon as tomorrow but more especially further down the road.

Edited November 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Guest archiesmummy]

My berries are still frozen here....I'm going to scrape the ice off the car and go out to buy mulled wine and crumpets now

What a great breakfast!

Lovely frosty day today, my little boy was so excited this morning, he will be ecstatic when it snows!

Hope the mild Monday doesn't last.......

[Mark Neal.]

Again the GFS hints at perhaps some light snow/wintry precip to expand southwards through Tuesday into Early hours Wednesday.. Something i'm keeping an eye on

[gottolovethisweather]

Again the GFS hints at perhaps some light snow/wintry precip to expand southwards through Tuesday into Early hours Wednesday.. Something i'm keeping an eye on

See my post Mark, there will be many more of these type of charts popping up over the following days.

Ian F's post which I copied into this thread yesterday confirming that there will be chances, but they asr very borderline as confirmed by the GEFS (ensembles) guidance.

[Keraunic]

Much of the frost has gone now where the sun has melted it. Just a few frosted strands of grass remain where the sun has not yet reached. Lovely clear blue sky and sun in The Swich.

[gottolovethisweather]

My frost hollow remains at -0.9c currently and it had previously dropped to -2.1c. It truly is, a beautiful day out there.

Edited November 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

-4C as I drove through Keymer this morning - the cold really seems to collect there.

I take it back Robin - you posted one as I was typing!

There's a patch of about 100M down Spatham Lane that is like that, always colder than anywhere else.. I think any snow that does arrive tomorrow might be brief and in Essex+East Anglia and surrounding.

[Jimmyh]

wow first proper frost of the autumn/winter ice on thew tracks between beck junction and penge east made for an interesting train journey. Love this weather hate rain and drodd

[Snow Obsession]

This is the latest picture from Germany which arrived this morning. I think he's trying to torture me. Still, he's back tonight.

Beautiful frost here this morning

[gottolovethisweather]

It seems Stratospheric happenings are partly responsible for the current model suite confusion, see GP's post below.

http://forum.netweat...60#entry2422232

This in turn will reflect in our personal interpretations of the trend going forward, to which I eluded to earlier and over here in the CSE & SW thread.

http://forum.netweat...60#entry2422178

Borderline events are here to stay for the short-term but there is greater hope whilst uncertain, that the proper stuff won't be far away, we just need some consistency from all the differering models. GP and many other Strat guys remain hopeful and for that, I am most grateful.

Incidentally here is Ian Fergusson's post as he saw things panning out yesterday.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2421326

Edited November 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

This is the latest picture from Germany which arrived this morning. I think he's trying to torture me. Still, he's back tonight.

Beautiful frost here this morning

That is definitely more than 3 inches right now.

Edited November 30, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Dexter29]

Darren Bett on the latest News24 showed a small blue blob over our region tomorrow, the tiny blue patch on his graphic was moving through London towards Kent. He said a very small possibility of sleet.

Hoping for something more promising in the coming weeks

[Methuselah]

This is the latest picture from Germany which arrived this morning. I think he's trying to torture me. Still, he's back tonight.

Beautiful frost here this morning

You'll have to get a divorce, SO. On the grounds of emotional torture?

[Coast]

[West Sussex Kate]

Nice Coast!

lovely frost here in the garden today!

Bring on the snow.

Edited November 30, 2012 by West Sussex Kate

[john pike]

going by these wintry showers are more likely to happen between saturday 12 to sunday 00

lower ground may see some light snow-sleet showers

higher ground should have a better chance of some snow

gonna be a cold one

will update later as should be more accurate hopefully

warms up on the 3rd

straight back to cold on the 4th

gap in the ensembles apprearing on the 5th

thats still fi at present

[Dexter29]

going by these wintry showers are more likely to happen between saturday 12 to sunday 00

lower ground may see some light snow-sleet showers

higher ground should have a better chance of some snow

gonna be a cold one

will update later as should be more accurate hopefully

warms up on the 3rd

straight back to cold on the 4th

gap in the ensembles apprearing on the 5th

thats still fi at present

Looks good John, although the BBC say just very light rain in there TV forecast

Edited November 30, 2012 by Dexter29

[john pike]

Looks good John, although the BBC say just very light rain in there TV forecast

hi dexter

still reckon the chance is there if this comes in

later afternnoon or evening

update tonight

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Ice for London & South East England :

Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Hampshire, Milton Keynes, Reading, West Berkshire, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

Yellow Warning of Ice for East of England :

Peterborough, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Bedford, Central Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire & Luton

Valid from: 1630 on Fri 30 Nov 2012

Valid to: 1130 on Sat 1 Dec 2012

Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing overnight across many parts of England and Wales. Due to the recent wet weather there is an increased risk of icy patches, even on roads that have been treated with salt, where water run off/seepage may wash off any earlier salt treatment.

The public should be aware of the risk of ice on roads and pavements.

Issued at: 1232 on Fri 30 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=2648DFE0-8DDA-41FF-898D-514619D6CB8B_1_SE&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1354190460