Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012

[Continental Climate]

http://www.meteociel...H1-144.GIF?01-0

Awsome- the First deep cold block to the NE thats made it to 144-

come on undercutter at 168 with pressure building towards Greenland as well-

how can the houdini cold escape the UK this time?

S

I have every faith in the UK snow shield steve

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120112/ECH1-144.GIF?01-0

Awsome- the First deep cold block to the NE thats made it to 144-

come on undercutter at 168 with pressure building towards Greenland as well-

how can the houdini cold escape the UK this time?

S

Steve I was thinking that myself surely this can go only one way now ?

[The PIT]

http://www.meteociel...H1-144.GIF?01-0

Awsome- the First deep cold block to the NE thats made it to 144-

come on undercutter at 168 with pressure building towards Greenland as well-

how can the houdini cold escape the UK this time?

S

If there's a way there's a way. As we know by now. I'll wait until it gets to T96 then get excited.

[AWD]

The ECM is keen to spawn rather potent little depressions off the eastern seaboard into the southern arm of the jet too;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Another little storm being developed in the East Atlantic there.

[cold snap]

Not quite as good at 168 now some of more intelligent people might say I'm wrong

[SMU]

Well 168 is good, not initially, however the Greenland high is there- infact everything is there-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012120112/ECM1-168.GIF?01-0

Amazing how we can wedge ourselves in the only milder bit!

192 please!

[chris55]

That little southerly tracking Low is going the wrong side of the ridge at 168, we need it up the Western side and were away,

Edit, but as Steve says it should just fill to the south and then we might get the ridge, we need the one behind it up the Western side though.

Edited December 1, 2012 by chris55

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Not bad Siberian/Russian high

[AWD]

The JMA at T192 has the UK under an HP influence with signs of it starting to ridge up into Greeland, and a depression in the Mid Atlantic which would need to undercut the HP and head into Southern Europe to maintain colder prospects;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

[TEITS]

Just catching up and my word what on earth has CH done to the PV!

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-384.png?12

Incredible.

Looks to me as though cold could be replaced by bitterly cold by around mid month.

[nick sussex]

The models are all at sea!

Here the ECM makes a dogs dinner of the set up with that low to the sw phasing with yet another further south and throwing the whole thing further north.

The GFS looks the cleanest transition but hard to have faith in any output past 120hrs.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

So close!

Edited December 1, 2012 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[Continental Climate]

well all the ingredients are there folks height rises to the north and a southerly tracking jet and lowish pressure over europe http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif!! Its all still a bit underwhelming though!!

Maybe this is better though as plenty of time for upgrades as is happening now with the T96 timeframe!! All in all im pleased and the trend is our friend in this situation.

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=0&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Not bad but it's a slow evolution might still get there

Has to be said its messy but if it produces the good we want complain

Edited December 1, 2012 by cold snap

[snowmackem]

Well I for one am much more confident of a deep cold spell occuring now due

to the actual warming we are now seeing in the upper troposphere and strat.

The regions where the warming is taking place is not to disimilar to that

of January 2012 and as we see real heights(yellows and oranges) are starting

to be modeled and again similar to that of the end of Jan this year.

Exciting times ahead.

Hmmmm, up here in the NE we didn't get a single flake last winter after December (at lower levels anyway !), but, I think that this winter is shaping up quite nicely......for everyone that likes the white stuff, not just Scotland and the North,

Karl

[chris55]

I think the chances of actually getting a cold easterly in are higher looking forward at the moment, than they were when we were looking at this weekend last week. If that makes sense.

[london-snow]

Now i know why i am sitting this one on the fence. Others may not be happy to see me being cautious however nothing is a certain and straight forward for the Uk to get cold conditions and this chat is the perfect reason why...

Edited December 1, 2012 by london-snow

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Low to far north for some but we have some sort of easterly

ECM making hard work of this

[Continental Climate]

Another okish chart from ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif!! Snow for scotland blocking round southern iceland not bad and better than last year thats for sure

[cold snap]

Another okish chart from ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif!! Snow for scotland blocking round southern iceland not bad and better than last year thats for sure

Okay best word to describe we what I seen so far today the bar has been raised upto this point small bit deflated I feel

[Frosty.]

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

Low to far north for some but we have some sort of easterly

ECM making hard work of this

This is the time when someone would say, let's wait for the De bilt ensembles to get a better idea of where things stand rather than taking the op run as gospel, not that I am accusing anyone of doing that but we have had some excellent models showing a cold or very cold outlook today so lets not let an op run tarnish that.

And the NOAA discussions, they might favour the gfs evolution.

Edited December 1, 2012 by Frosty039

[Continental Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif!! Decent!! And that about sums up the ECM for this evening folks

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Well nice ending very frantic in the middle

Easterly again shown ,nice trend setter

[Weathizard]

Dont like this run its a very messy way of getting to a cold outcome, lets see the Ensembles because its last 3 runs have all been different after 168'ish

[Frosty.]

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

Well nice ending very frantic in the middle

Easterly again shown ,nice trend setter

Yes but we want the cleanest route to cold, not the convoluted spaghetti junction version.