North West England Regional Thread

[Backtrack]

P.s BT your little sig at the bottom of your posts looks a little bit outdated now

I know. Really doubting GP now. Starting to think he's got December completely wrong, that leaves the rest of his forecast open to some serious questioning. Think the odds of his forecast coming off are now sky high.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I know. Really doubting GP now. Starting to think he's got December completely wrong, that leaves the rest of his forecast open to some serious questioning. Think the odds of his forecast coming off are now sky high.

He has got some fundamentals wrong up to this point BUT we can't blame GP....that's the weather for you and no matter how strong signals may be, nothing is set in stone. I remember from his winter forecast video he was extremely confident of his December thoughts. How quickly things can change!

[itsnowjoke]

well temp now 2c bored in here on my own lol

[SouthPennine88]

2007

2008

Thanks for that

[Backtrack]

He has got some fundamentals wrong up to this point BUT we can't blame GP....that's the weather for you and no matter how strong signals may be, nothing is set in stone. I remember from his winter forecast video he was extremely confident of his December thoughts. How quickly things can change!

I guess, still pretty gutting.

Not that Easterlies are any good anyway. We're usually cold and dry where as the easterners are shouting about 40ft of snow.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Backtrack

[Cheshire Freeze]

Thanks for that

Not a problem mate

[Cheshire Freeze]

P.s the ability of people to bury their heads in the sand over in the Mod thread is astounding! Spitting dummies out if someone dares to say the next 7-10 days look like a write off AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME is pathetic to see. It's impossible to write an impartial post in there if your view happens to suggest no deep cold for the next week or two.

What most people don't know (due to the fact that I've never ever mentioned it until now) is that 2 years ago I got approached by a commercial weather forecasting agency in respect to a paid forecasting position, which I turned down. I never propose to have amazing forecasting abilities or expert understanding but I believe I can read charts proficiently enough.

[Isolated Frost]

I know. Really doubting GP now. Starting to think he's got December completely wrong, that leaves the rest of his forecast open to some serious questioning

12z GEFS suite is very strong on blocking to our N and NE, with an equally strong (if not stronger) signature for block to retrogress towards Greenland in the extended frames as the pv is transferred towards Siberia (which has been a consistent signal now for a few days).

Spot on- the heights towards Svalbard have retrogressed towards Greenland in recent days, the blocking to the North and North-East is infact extensive as you can see throughout the GEFS and ECM ENS-

Indeed the vortex signal moves from Canada to Siberia imminently with the support of a change in stratospheric conditions- note the pressure rises likely STILL in Greenland- similar to the timeframe GP indicated-

A good composite showing the expected low heights o/ Europe and strong heights o/ Svalbard/Novaya Zemlya, expect this composite to further strengthen the Greenland signal in upcoming days, and reduce the atlantic +ve signal-

At the D20 mark, I'm expecting GP to be very similar with his forecast indeed- afterwards a lot is in the air.

It seems that many are getting confused at the combination of the lack of snow and current NWP output and confusing it with the obvious legitimacy of a perfectly sound forecast so far.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Isolated Frost

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I am down to -3.2°C, but feels a waste when there is no snow due, and rain due

[SP1986]

There will be a severe frost here tonight. It is only 0.0C at the moment, however it is relatively stable.. on a clear night this means an inversion is building. When this lowers, then we could conceivably get below -5C here.. exactly the same setup the brought the severe frost (and record breaking frost) of december 2010..

That's why some place are already near -5C.. if the inversion stays put then those areas could see near -10C.

Certainly will happen here tonight, but it's whether those conditions can stay true or whether they will change.

Such conditions such as the night in December that delivered the record lowest temperature of -10.5C here saw the temperature at -3C at 3am.. by 6am it had dropped 7C..

[SP1986]

BT will like this one.. Right on the coast in Morfa Nefyn on the Llyn Peninsula is currently -1.2C.. they rarely see air frost there so that's quite a big deal. Also Holyhead harbour is -1C.. also not a frequent occurrence (but nowhere near as unusual as Llyn)

[itsnowjoke]

0c now but suprisingly i have my bedroom window open

[Backtrack]

Spot on- the heights towards Svalbard have retrogressed towards Greenland in recent days, the blocking to the North and North-East is infact extensive as you can see throughout the GEFS and ECM ENS-

Indeed the vortex signal moves from Canada to Siberia imminently with the support of a change in stratospheric conditions- note the pressure rises likely STILL in Greenland- similar to the timeframe GP indicated-

A good composite showing the expected low heights o/ Europe and strong heights o/ Svalbard/Novaya Zemlya, expect this composite to further strengthen the Greenland signal in upcoming days, and reduce the atlantic +ve signal-

At the D20 mark, I'm expecting GP to be very similar with his forecast indeed- afterwards a lot is in the air.

It seems that many are getting confused at the combination of the lack of snow and current NWP output and confusing it with the obvious legitimacy of a perfectly sound forecast so far.

Granted that the background signals LOOK good, but it's not translating to the weather they point towards on the surface. I certainly don't see any signal on those anomaly charts for the SW'erlies that the MOGREPS has been predicting for some time now.

BT will like this one.. Right on the coast in Morfa Nefyn on the Llyn Peninsula is currently -1.2C.. they rarely see air frost there so that's quite a big deal. Also Holyhead harbour is -1C.. also not a frequent occurrence (but nowhere near as unusual as Llyn)

And here we're above freezing.

No breeze, no cloud, a thick frost and it's above freezing. Oh Runcorn, you truly do suck.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Backtrack

[martinj2]

Granted that the background signals LOOK good, but it's not translating to the weather they point towards on the surface. I certainly don't see any signal on those anomaly charts for the SW'erlies that the MOGREPS has been predicting for some time now.

And here we're above freezing.

No breeze, no cloud, a thick frost and it's above freezing. Oh Runcorn, you truly do suck.

Yup same here - above freezing with crystal clear skies (+0.7C!) - Jupiter looking spectacular

[Backtrack]

Yup same here - above freezing with crystal clear skies (+0.7C!) - Jupiter looking spectacular

Weather station on my roof says it's 0.4C and I usually adjust that down 1C, so looks like we're now below freezing at -0.6C.

[SP1986]

Frost hollow characteristics coming into play on top of a hill now (work that one out).. currently the coldest in merseyside by miles.. currently -1.5C and dropping like a 500 tonne rock. I think -5C is a possibility but more likely to be -3C

I think this week we could come within 3C of the temperature record here, which is impressive given there is no snow on the ground

Edited December 10, 2012 by SP1986

[Chris.R]

0.2c here on the coast and dropping very slowely, don't think it will get below -2c here but you never know.

[Backtrack]

Frost hollow characteristics coming into play on top of a hill now (work that one out).. currently the coldest in merseyside by miles.. currently -1.5C and dropping like a 500 tonne rock. I think -5C is a possibility but more likely to be -3C

I think this week we could come within 3C of the temperature record here, which is impressive given there is no snow on the ground

HAHAHAH

Mate we have to go for a pint one day.

[johnwirral]

Blizzards from the 21st on tonight's run, may be the Mayans did no a thing or too....

[bridgechad]

-0.1oC here!

[loubie_4]

-1.2 here now. Sky is crystal clear

[carl1980]

-2.8 here sky was very clear last night before I went to bed seen a bright meteor

[SP1986]

HAHAHAH

Mate we have to go for a pint one day.

Ill take you up on that

I see Runcorn failed to see exceptional cold, around -2C at best ?

Here low so far, -2.6C.. which is about normal for a night like this.

The north coast of Wirral got very cold.. Meols -3.2C

Chester city centre is -5.0C

Edited December 11, 2012 by SP1986

[Chris.R]

As I thought temp felt to -2.2c overnight, now -1.8c.

[pip22]

This week is a huge disapointment for me because of the biggest low I ever seen just coming in from the west. I really hope it will hold out for another week atleast but I think it wont happen at this time. The snow to rain event scenario is just doesn't count for me. I was hoping for a strong easterlies but since it wont happening I am very saddened by it. Hopefully the cold weather probably trying its very best to reach us from the east by Christmas.