Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Tony Beets]

Well we'll well, that is a bit of a turnaround and look north presenter paul Hudson may have just made a rite tit out of himself by saying there's no chance of a white Xmas!!

[chris55]

When was the last time we had heavy snow over a large swathe of England on Christmas day~???? Anyone know? I know 2010 and 1981 had snow lying and 2004 saw the odd snow shower on the big day. But a Christmas day Blizzard?

I have a feeling (hopecast) that with the trends from ECM and GFS today, if an easterly does get in then a breakdown attempt may well appear around the 25th!!!!!

[chris55]

Great post! Anything could happen after Xmas. No need for depression just yet IMHO.

Anything could happen BEFORE xmas!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

This feels like deja vu, but in reverse, didn't the models start properly backtracking this time last week.

The models are turning into the met-office's nightmare before Christmas

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well just a word of warning from me , the Easterly modeled is much more likely to fail than all the others put together , and it would be very brief as there is nothing there to support it , It would be a bonus for some if it came off , possibly making the ground nice and white for Christmas , but I think we will have to wait till January for our next big Cold spell . Regarding this weeks Cold spell , we have been very unlucky regarding Snowfall, as I have to say it has been very very Cold, and I would not be surprised to see at least a couple of hours of Snow somewhere during the early hours as a Frost should have time to set in across most places.

[daboss]

What does an undercut actually do, in terms of weather, see a lot of talk on here but not really sure what afftect it has.

[Isolated Frost]

What does an undercut actually do, in terms of weather, see a lot of talk on here but not really sure what afftect it has.

An undercut is a low pressure system that goes 'under' a block of high pressure. Usually it means that an atlantic low pressure system goes beneath a cold high pressure system in Siberia/Scandinavia. This 'undercut' means the UK is on top of the low pressure system, and usually in the colder continental air

[daboss]

An undercut is a low pressure system that goes 'under' a block of high pressure. Usually it means that an atlantic low pressure system goes beneath a cold high pressure system in Siberia/Scandinavia. This 'undercut' means the UK is on top of the low pressure system, and usually in the colder continental air

Cheers, so the warmer air sinks then.

[WhiteFox]

Cheers, so the warmer air sinks then.

I initially read that as "the warmer air stinks" to which I would heartily agree.

This thread is perfect for this post...

What irritated me about the recent cold spell was not the longevity or how cold it was, but the fact we saw no snowy breakdown. It looked ideal: deep cold in place and a favorably aligned attack from the Atlantic. What we got was some light snow over SW Scotland (I happened to be driving from Glasgow to Reading yesterday) and a slow seeping of warm air from the south, followed by heavy rain. Ridiculous!

[AWD]

Here comes our Greenie high to see in the new year;

Lol.

[Sara1988]

the sight of the rain is depressing me already, the last few days have been great, nice frosts, cold, lovely winter scenes through the window, filled me with festive cheer...now i look outside and it makes me want to go back to bed hmmm sooo miserable out there

just keeping fingers crossed for returning to colder conditions before xmas....not going to get excited just yet though, im not going to be bitten again lol

[swfc]

How is it awful, High pressure building over the UK , trying to link with the Scandi High , can only be a good thing and would likely lead to some cold getting in from the NE / E eventually ... much better run than what we have seen lately.

likely why?looks like its heading to full blown zonality at 192 hrs.selective fi timescales apply but it's about opinions on what people see in the model output.i hope your correct "I'm a novice" but the strat warming'pv splitting ,tanking nao and the trending are platitudes I'm sick of hearing.like I said I'm know "pro"and if I see a bad set of charts then ill call it I'm afraid!!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Some say it's not to bad some say it's bad, I say most of you don't have a clue

[polarlow2]

Some say it's not to bad some say it's bad, I say most of you don't have a clue

I concur.

[cerneman]

Some say it's not to bad some say it's bad, I say most of you don't have a clue

Wonder what the Weather will do? Hope it snows dont you [ poets corner]

[SnowObsessor90]

I should be well into my model watching break by now and even though I realise that the slight potential first hinted at by the ECM last night will most likely come to nothing for some reason I'm still here, more fool me I suppose.

[BorrisB77]

I should be well into my model watching break by now and even though I realise that the slight potential first hinted at by the ECM last night will most likely come to nothing for some reason I'm still here, more fool me I suppose.

I know exactly what you mean..After the failed BFTE it was a real cracker in the nuts!! Said to myself then leave the models fora week but that still hasn't happened!! Lol ( not knocking the cold spell we did have tho,cracking frosts )

[cerneman]

Last few winters.apart from last year have raised expectations that snow can still indeed fall and stay around for more than just few hours, I was born one year after 1947 winter, My parents always used 1947 as there bench mark for following winters, Had some good winters in my life time. but would like see another 47 type winter,If only to find out if as good as they said it was

[coram]

Forecasting is a pretty easy task for the Met Office at the moment. There is no real sign of any cold, it will either be mild, average or slightly below average. There is lots of straw clutching on the MT at the moment, but it's pretty obvious that the next couple of weeks will be predominantly zonal with perhaps an outside chance of a bit of cold/snowy weather in northern Scotland from time to time. GP will only appear on the MT when there is a good chance of some cold weather. He better hope that this happens soon or his December forecast will look pretty poor.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Faint hopes of a northerly toppler 28th-31st Dec, may see my first snow then, but most likely back to zonal trash on 01 Jan

[cerneman]

Faint hopes of a northerly toppler 28th-31st Dec, may see my first snow then, but most likely back to zonal trash on 01 Jan

After the december 2010 snow, I put large snow ball in my freezer, Still there. very sad really

[Tony Beets]

Nice programme on quest on sky about snow!!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z for Wednesday shorts out! balmy air for the SW, hope its dry, get the bbq out

[cerneman]

18Z for Wednesday shorts out! balmy air for the SW, hope its dry, get the bbq out

Fishing Tackle out, chase the winter Pike,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Nice programme on quest on sky about snow!!!!

yeah am watching wouldnt mind some of that over crimbo