Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[LomondSnowstorm]

Probably worth pointing out (and i know it's obvious) but winters can be quite different comparing the North with the South.

Scotland and the North of England can often have colder, snowier winters than the rest of England and Wales - seen many of those winters in my lifetime.

Very true, at least a few of those 'modern' winter months would have been below the equivalent average for here, with January and February 2001 and February 2003 all being quite a bit lower than the long term average.

[DR(S)NO]

Very true, at least a few of those 'modern' winter months would have been below the equivalent average for here, with January and February 2001 and February 2003 all being quite a bit lower than the long term average.

Absolutely SS ,and worth pointing out that Dec 12 will be remembered for different things in different parts of the country.

For me,there's been a great array of different weather types in the month.....more than enough to keep me interested in the weather.The first 14 days or so gave mostly frosty nights and some snow.....so for my area it feels like a better than average start to winter.

Obviously there has also been horrendous flooding in many areas....just goes to show the many different weather types that can be experienced in our small country

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECMWF 12Z much betterr next week, typical 12Z's really with the GFS being aggressive with the Atlantic

[cerneman]

Yeah, sadly Jan to march has changed massively in the môdern era, even the settled spell is downgrading, meto going for rain on Sunday

My Sister been married to Norweign man for 30 years,they live in Oslo, Her husband being saying that he is seeing milder Norweign winters over past 20 years or so, His family live in Lofoten islands and they saying exactly the same,

[Bobby]

Meh I've got tired trying to calm the ramping in the model thread. SSW this, SSW that. Hopefully we get a big freeze and nobody is dissapointed after getting so carried away but I'll believe it when I see it.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Meh I've got tired trying to calm the ramping in the model thread. SSW this, SSW that. Hopefully we get a big freeze and nobody is dissapointed after getting so carried away but I'll believe it when I see it.

We should understandably urge caution, but a displacement SSW followed by secondary warming over Greenland and wave 2 activity leading to a split is a pretty stunning and relatively rare development, so the potential for the second half of January is quite something, which is why the Met Office are taking this so seriously even at this range.

[Snowplough33]

We should understandably urge caution, but a displacement SSW followed by secondary warming over Greenland and wave 2 activity leading to a split is a pretty stunning and relatively rare development, so the potential for the second half of January is quite something, which is why the Met Office are taking this so seriously even at this range.

How rare an event is this? Has it taken place before? I see some reference to 2009. Was this the cause of that cold spell. I understand that 2010 was not related to SSW.

[LomondSnowstorm]

How rare an event is this? Has it taken place before? I see some reference to 2009. Was this the cause of that cold spell. I understand that 2010 was not related to SSW.

I haven't studied this field in all that much detail but December 2009 was different in being a local wave breaking event over Greenland rather than an SSW, but early February 2009's cold spell was a direct result of a split vortex Sudden Stratospheric Warming. A SSW in itself isn't all that rare but the fact we have a secondary warming following and a vortex split means it has a greater chance of huge disruption of the vortex at our level. We do need other factors to hold well for us as Chiono noted but it's certainly a big help in getting a favourable pattern change.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Really its not so much the wait for sometihng seasonal that is grating its the almost endless grey leden skies and drizzle wind and rain,with summers virtually non existent now i think there is going to be quite a lot of folk getting really depressed looking out of their window virtually every morning to rain,maybe its not as acute in other parts of the country but its gone past ridiculous now round here..

[UV-RAY]

Really its not so much the wait for sometihng seasonal that is grating its the almost endless grey leden skies and drizzle wind and rain,with summers virtually non existent now i think there is going to be quite a lot of folk getting really depressed looking out of their window virtually every morning to rain,maybe its not as acute in other parts of the country but its gone past ridiculous now round here..

I've only seen six days of sunshine since the end of November, I'm beyond SAD now.

[cerneman]

I've only seen six days of sunshine since the end of November, I'm beyond SAD now.

Bit of sun certainly lifts the spirits, When weather like this there's another type of spirits need lifting, Couple Whiskeys might do the trick

[Methuselah]

I've only seen six days of sunshine since the end of November, I'm beyond SAD now.

Aye, I'm with you there, 7!

[UV-RAY]

Bit of sun certainly lifts the spirits, When weather like this there's another type of spirits need lifting, Couple Whiskeys might do the trick

That's not good for my ever increasing red nose though, I'm beginning to look like Krusty the Clown. Edited January 2, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Gavin Hannah]

Absolutely f**king typical that the two days I planned to go to Aviemore (Thurs, Fri) we get above avg temps!! I mean cmon!!!

GAAHAHGAHGAGAHAGAGHAHGAGHAGHAH!

[Peter H]

Absolutely f**king typical that the two days I planned to go to Aviemore (Thurs, Fri) we get above avg temps!! I mean cmon!!!

GAAHAHGAHGAGAHAGAGHAHGAGHAGHAH!

Yep, slushy snow's horrible to ski in.

[Dandy]

Absolutely f**king typical that the two days I planned to go to Aviemore (Thurs, Fri) we get above avg temps!! I mean cmon!!!

GAAHAHGAHGAGAHAGAGHAHGAGHAGHAH!

Go in about three weeks, perhaps you will not need to go that far to ski.......big changes are coming I think

[cerneman]

Could be quite few days of tedium while models sort out where we go from here

[cerneman]

Well almost 3rd January dosen't the year fly by when having fun

[Peter H]

Could be quite few days of tedium while models sort out where we go from here

Yep, exceptionally mild here tomorrow (13C) and for the next few days (up until Monday at least).

No sign of anything particularly cold on the horizon either (up until the 18th now), so this could go down as one of the mildest Januarys on record if this keeps up.

Dunno what everyone else is looking at, but they must be on the happy pills.

[cerneman]

We all know that entering fasinating period for model watchers and forecasters, Models will start churning out some exciting and suspect awfull scenarios in next couple of weeks, How the final outcome will impact on our tiny island will not be known for some while yet, After the December let down there is lots of skepticism about ( once bitten] We are in different time of year now so lets see what transpires this time around, There will be lots to learn from upcoming event from basic learners like me right up to top guys at Met office, Will winter 2012/13 be one to cherish or one to forget?? We will know for sure by end March, Winter is far from over and patterns can and do change, I will enjoy much needed dry murky weather for this week. Expecting some rain showers next week and back to some average temps for while, after that who knows

[Coast]

So this stratosphere and SSW malarky then.......

:ph34r:

[cerneman]

So this stratosphere and SSW malarky then.......

Yep Seaweed dried out so trying something new

[weather_it_will]

Some light entertainment from Feb 1991 and BBC Weather's Ian McCaskill

http://www.youtube.c...bed/Hd6DuebHliY

Is this what is to come?

[Stationary Front]

Even John Hammond on BBC weather has just mentioned: "events high up in the atmosphere, watch this space".

[SnowObsessor90]

There seems to have been a few Mood swings in the MOD thread and rollercoaster hasn't even gotten going yet. It begs the question why I bother venturing in there even in more interesting times but there you go.