Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[snow freak]

It's so wierd when the model watcher's say "it's exciting times ahead" when none of the charts have shown anything conclusive. We all know that 99% of the time the weather is most likely to be mild and wet so what's the point in actually getting excited until such a time (24 hours ahead) when the charts can be more or less nailed when it comes to cold/snowy weather? The way this winter is panning out I will be glad to see the back of it and at least start to get some warm sunny weather in the Spring/Summer. Although saying that, come the Spring and Summer we will probably get the ideal conditions for cold and snow if the same set ups had happened several month earlier. Just our luck (or bad luck)!

[liam300]

So does this mean this event once again?

I dont see the point in looking at other charts if he ECM is so consistent why do we do it?

[Bradowl]

It's bound to turn wintry this weekend.

I'm going abroad for a few days.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Bradowl

[tonbridgemole]

RAMP RAMP RAMP RAMP i feel better now

[mezzacyclone]

Svaalbard Low`s throughout?

Far from convinced over this cold spell,,,,but my roof let`s more daylight in than a greenhouse so can`t say I want a dump

[Floatylight]

I can say it as i am in the right place

Everytime we get told 'we need more agreement'

We also need it showing in a reliable timeframe.

We need consistancy.

We need it to show for more than one run.

So for folkes to come on here and now start spouting the models are overcooking the cold and they'FEEL'

There will be no snow what so ever this weekend.

Are you serious?????????

What the point in anaylising anything if it all comes down to how you feel??

Have you any idea how stupid you all sound.

What more do you want a skywritten note from god??

If the weekend and onwards downgrades from here then so be it,but to be so negative with all we have staring us in the face after sitting here waiting all this time.

I think you all just scared to be happy incase.

Well be happy now i say !!!

Happy is good even if followed by sad )good luck all!)

[Weather-history]

10 years today

[Weather-history]

I do feel for Ian Brown, he gets lambasted for saying the ECM op is more likely to be correct, yet when Ian Ferguson says the METO are saying the same he is lauded and everyone agrees with him.

Here lies the problem, is ECM op run based on the current 12z run, more likely to be correct now? The ECM 0z op run is different from the mean ECM 12z. So was 0z more likely to be correct to begin with?

The answer has to be "no" because of the model uncertainties.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Weather-history

[Crystal Memories]

I had a little bit of pop about the forecasting models being inaccurate past 48hrs & was jumped on saying how much they have improved. Have a look at what this forecaster says about the models at the end of the forecast for this weekend http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_7760000/7760862.stm ( the models are at there lowest confidence they have ever seen ) lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I do feel for Ian Brown, he gets lambasted for saying the ECM op is more likely to be correct, yet when Ian Ferguson says the METO are saying the same he is lauded and everyone agrees with him.

Signs of the negative Ian again now, wont be long before 'except Staffs and Shrops' start creeping in,

[Lukey]

Well, having put winter tyres on my car back in November I knew i'd jinxed this winter (just like i jinxed the summer when I bought a convertible!) but maybe I may finally get some use outta those damn tyres after all!

L

[snowblizzard]

BBC Weather at 10pm

Nina Ridge says there are signs that it might turn a little colder over the weekend!?

Surely, given the charts tonight, they should be saying turning very much colder?

Confused!!

Edited January 8, 2013 by snowblizzard

[SnowObsessor90]

BBC Weather at 10pm

Nina Ridge says there are signs that it might turn a little colder over the weekend!?

Surely, given the charts tonight, they should be saying turning very much colder?

Confused!!

We'll see come tomorrow, the latest set of GFS ensembles show enough reason to stay on the side of caution for the time being.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Anonymous21

[TheWeatherGirl]

To do my bit I will refrain from buying a snow shovel in ASDA this week - doing so will almost certainly jinx away any chance of snow ..

[Bluebreezer54]

Well he certainly wasn't right about his' winter modern' theory was he? You only have to go back a five years or so to find that he was agreeing with that idiot from the climate research unit at UEA who said back in 2001 that heavy snowfalls in the uk were a thing of the past and that children wouldn't know what snow was. Back then Ian was banging on about how a sub zero cet month was impossible as well high latitude blocking and a southerly tracking jet. Thankfully the winters of 200/8/9, 9/10 and 10/11 kicked that fallacy out of the window.

I can't recall who it was that made that statement so I won't criticise them directly, but I certainly remember that statement being made.

[Jan]

Carol on BBC weather;- Eastern and coastal counties will see some snow but not enough to build a snowman, are the beeb playing it down?

[Great Plum]

Two words: Shannon entropy...

[Neiller22]

I'm afraid I only see this going one way today! Mild! Expect ECM and ukmo to follow suit. I just think this winter was doomed since December. Ain't getting the brakes I'm afraid.

[Bobby]

Meltdown in the model thread and this is just after the GFS 06z OP. Imagine the carnage tonight if the 12z runs and ensembles follow suit!

Anyone got the number for Samaritans ready...

[Carl46Wrexham]

Models starting to go belly up? Shortwaves appearing out of nowhere?

Yup it's that December feeling coming again!....But...but....but...it looks good in 10 days time...etc etc...

Lets just get the sodding sandbags ready again....this winter is gonna be a busted flush! (Yep a pretty wild statement to make I know...but if the hated zonal train rolls into town again, then thats another sizable chunk of the winter written off)

Edited January 9, 2013 by Carl46Wrexham

[TyphoonNow]

I just wondered if there is any plausible reason why models change so drastically? Is it really a science of prediction only? The weather is volatile and fluctuating so I don't see any model being able to be accurate at +90 hours. It's all guess work based on many factors of past events and patterns.

So yes i am unhappy that the snow may not arrive or amount to much but then again why let myself build my hopes up for a probable fall in the first place? It's like thinking your horse will win when it is leading after half the race.

Edited January 9, 2013 by TyphoonNow

[Rose]

I'm trying very hard not to get excited (again) as I can't stand the let down BUT I have just watched the BBC video update & I wish I hadn't, no mention of snow just rain, rain!! Grrr

[Bobby]

Models starting to go belly up? Shortwaves appearing out of nowhere?

Yup it's that December feeling coming again!....But...but....but...it looks good in 10 days time...etc etc...

Lets just get the sodding sandbags ready again....this winter is gonna be a busted flush!

Let's hope the Atlantic freight-train doesn't get started and we get the Block because if it does get going I can't see much stopping it for the foreseeable future, just like early December.

[Southender]

Complete and utter skcollob from this GFS run IMO.

Shortwaves I can buy into to an extent.

But firing up the PV and giving us raging zonality for the next 2 weeks?

Behave!

[Bobby]

Complete and utter skcollob from this GFS run IMO.

Shortwaves I can buy into to an extent.

But firing up the PV and giving us raging zonality for the next 2 weeks?

Behave!

The UKMO and Ian F has always suggested an active and strengthening Atlantic influence, the hope is that a block would deflect the energy to our S possibly giving us battleground snow events and reinforcing the easterlies as they undercut in which case the Atlantic influence would be a good thing. The models have also been consistent in showing a strengthening Atlantic with time. But if we don't get the block around Greenland there's no undercut and the Atlantic just ploughs straight through us.

As I said if it does get going then I can see little stopping it for some time.

Hopefully we get the block. I want blizzards.