Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[snow freak]

Yesterday the models were showing some fantastic scenarios taking place with severe cold and snowfall for many parts of the UK. Guess what, this morning's run backtracks...yet again and reduces the cold threat. This happened back in December and this winter seems like offering much but actually delivering nothing. If this cold spell fails to materialise I really will give up on looking at any charts as it is a complete waste of time in this country and just raises hopes only to be dashed at the last moment. This winter is rapidly turning out to be one of the worst for a number of years. Back to plain old boring mild snowless winters I think.

[snowblizzard]

Frustrating and very annoying!

There's absolutely no point in looking at any of these prediction models when they can swing from one extreme to the other within 12 hours - it's ridiculous!

I'll only believe that we have a decent cold spell coming when I hear the BBC Weather Presenters saying "it will be very wintry next week, with some disruptive snowfall" just like they did about a week before the Dec 2010 outbreak.

Edited January 9, 2013 by snowblizzard

[DanDorsetUK]

lol just seen the gfs charts and what a come down! That is one HUGE swing back to warm! Got a bad feeling this winter may go down as the most disappointing! Obviously the charts cant be believed 3 days ahead at the moment!

[Carl46Wrexham]

lol just seen the gfs charts and what a come down! That is one HUGE swing back to warm! Got a bad feeling this winter may go down as the most disappointing! Obviously the charts cant be believed 3 days ahead at the moment!

I say dump the models in the bin, and resort to the old fashioned way....looking out the window and checking the pine cones and seaweed. Couldn't do any worse!

[Jan]

Personally looking at the models yesterday and the latest GFS run, I don't think we will get the very cold/snowy weather that was showing up but maybe a bit more watered down version. Must admit I did watch every run yesterday, something I don't normally do, and I did start getting a bit excited, but think I will just stick to looking at the 0z and the 12z as usual.

[garbagebags]

Personally looking at the models yesterday and the latest GFS run, I don't think we will get the very cold/snowy weather that was showing up but maybe a bit more watered down version. Must admit I did watch every run yesterday, something I don't normally do, and I did start getting a bit excited, but think I will just stick to looking at the 0z and the 12z as usual.

Im not so sure, I dont think a "halfway house" here is an option. We are either blocked and protected from this apparent shortwave or we are not. Its going to be cold or mild in my eyes.

[Jan]

Im not so sure, I dont think a "halfway house" here is an option. We are either blocked and protected from this apparent shortwave or we are not. Its going to be cold or mild in my eyes.

Not a halfway house as such, just not as cold or widespread snow, as was being predicted yesterday, its not going to be that mild just not as cold. As for snow, I was forecast a 50% chance yesterday for saturday night but thats a bit extreme for my area as I am too near the coast and very low level, I will wait and see. It's like gambling you are never certain if you're gona win or not till it happens, like if you're given a tip on the horses.

[snow freak]

Time to stop looking at charts until 24-48 hours before any event as they are just guesswork and I really can't see the point in trying to determine which pattern the weather may or may not take but basically making a guess. Might as well just stick your head out of the window which in my opinion, is a far cheaper and more reliable indication of the weather situation than these multi million pound models and computers, which only make predictions relating to past weather information.

[Optimus Prime]

Might as well just stick your head out of the window which in my opinion, is a far cheaper and more reliable indication of the weather situation than these multi million pound models and computers, which only make predictions relating to past weather information.

Lol your new here aren't you?

[Jan]

Sometimes sticking your head out of the window is the best way, instead of sitting on a computer searching and searching for something that may or may not happen, instead get out and enjoy the weather that you've got. If you happen to get snow it's a big surprise!!

I don't think the computer models rely on data from past weather patterns to determine what is going to happen, they look at what is actually happening with weather all around the globe including stratosphere and troposphere as well, that why the forecasts don't get it spot on over a week away. Stick to 5 days or less

Edited January 9, 2013 by Jan

[snowblues]

Looking forward to sat evening up to monday at the moment and no further.Cold uppers will be there,just hoping there is at least a good steady wind flow to push any covection well inland and dont end up with a flabby low setup after the initial undercut.

Edited January 9, 2013 by snowblues

[fulham snow]

Model watching driving me mad,one minute snow the next rain and mild,not sure if any of the

models have a clue which way it is going to pan out.

Lets hope for the later.

[alan776600]

Hoping that Reading,Berkshire will see some of that white stuff this weekend Thank you all for your explanations of how snow is forcasted

[Ali1977]

Alex Deakin talking about possible snow later on weekend, early next week...Nothing about Saturday being a possibility though!!

[gareth73]

Just great! As things start to get interesting I an jetting to the Canaries tomorrow. Just heard that Toronto is expecting a record high of +13 on Saturday. I shall be following you all for two weeks while away so good luck with the outputs for the coldies and snowies out there!

[Bobby]

Just for fun

Let's hope it doesn't happen this time!

[stainesbloke]

Just for fun

Let's hope it doesn't happen this time!

LOL....love this, its exactly whats been happening on here this Winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Will be game over on 12Z's, that 06Z has it right, 2 day cold with snow south of m4 on Saturday, ice day sunday then mild, looks like me still being snowless

dreading ECMWF 12Z to go way of 06Z GFS

[sparky1972]

good afternoon everyone, well here we go again in the hunt for cold and snow. im hoping for a nice long cold shot but have this bad feeling its going to go wrong.

[Peter H]

good afternoon everyone, well here we go again in the hunt for cold and snow. im hoping for a nice long cold shot but have this bad feeling its going to go wrong.

After a run of really promising charts for the next couple of weeks, it's now flip flopped again with the Atlantic braking through.

Still, at least all the weather forecasts are going with the persistant cold spell theme now, so at least that's something. We'll just have to wait and see how things devlop.

[Great Plum]

Will be game over on 12Z's, that 06Z has it right, 2 day cold with snow south of m4 on Saturday, ice day sunday then mild, looks like me still being snowless

dreading ECMWF 12Z to go way of 06Z GFS

Erm... Look at the 12z gfs...

[Wilxy]

Erm... Look at the 12z gfs...

Step in right direction delayed atlantic better heights no complaints from me on latest run UKMO is a beaut.

[Snowly does it]

Medium to longer term GFS atrocious for cold weather. T168 is a mild strait jacket.

For sustained cold we need to see ensembles holding and backtrack continuing.

[snowstorm445]

Truly atrocious GFS run in the longer term. It has the most bizarre obsession with ensuring south westerlies when there is ample opportunity to ridge northward. I will be interested to see if this operational run is part of the trend or just the mild obsessed outlier.

[Barry12]

Medium to longer term GFS atrocious for cold weather. T168 is a mild strait jacket.

For sustained cold we need to see ensembles holding and backtrack continuing.

Its called fantasy ireland for a reason..anything can happen in 168 hours - especially because of caos theory

Truly atrocious GFS run in the longer term. It has the most bizarre obsession with ensuring south westerlies when there is ample opportunity to ridge northward. I will be interested to see if this operational run is part of the trend or just the mild obsessed outlier.

im not following you i swear!