Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Barry12]

Model watching is completely pointless, all cold spells are watered down drastically by the time we get to the period. All models showing good charts yet it doesn't mean anything as the Met Office are completely going against what the models show...

All the models are clueless don't even know what the point of looking at them is, we can have cross model agreement of a cold spell and everyone get's excited using phrases such as 'booom' 'nailed on' '90% sure' and then 12 hours later it can be game over like the failed easterly in December.

[lawrenk]

Model watching is completely pointless, all cold spells are watered down drastically by the time we get to the period. All models showing good charts yet it doesn't mean anything as the Met Office are completely going against what the models show...

All the models are clueless don't even know what the point of looking at them is, we can have cross model agreement of a cold spell and everyone get's excited using phrases such as 'booom' 'nailed on' '90% sure' and then 12 hours later it can be game over like the failed easterly in December.

Presumably this will be your last post then?

[Hammer]

Model watching is completely pointless, all cold spells are watered down drastically by the time we get to the period. All models showing good charts yet it doesn't mean anything as the Met Office are completely going against what the models show...

All the models are clueless don't even know what the point of looking at them is, we can have cross model agreement of a cold spell and everyone get's excited using phrases such as 'booom' 'nailed on' '90% sure' and then 12 hours later it can be game over like the failed easterly in December.

Barry. Models & ensembles should be used as a guide, to see the trend. Perhaps your expectation of them needs resetting.

[Paul_1978]

Wow a two day easterly of sorts then back to the Atlantic, as per ECM. Excited, not.

[snowblizzard]

Where were you for all of 2010? December 2010 was the second coldest December in the entire 350 odd years of the CET and 2009/10 was the coldest winter since 1978/79 for England (since 62/63 for Scotland).

I was referring to this winter! (2012/2013!)

[bradymk]

Just some stats from me so far this winter which i thought should be in here because they are truly horrendous at face value........lowest temp -2.9c in early December. Since then we have only had 3 nights below 0c which even for my area is truly shocking. However we have had some very cold maxima also (0.7c was the lowest maxima) and the reason behind no low minimum temperatures is because of the extensive cloud cover in the January cold spell which caused low maxima but the temperature hardly dropped at night. Even in the january cold spell, we only here managed a few hours of snowfall and most days the temperature was 3/4/5c...........at the end of all this, i think i may move locations but saying that, summer is beautiful here.

[andy100]

I'm expecting 3 ft of snow before the winter ends

[greybing]

yeah...hope/

[Peter H]

We had around 5 inches of snow on Tuesday morning. All gone by early afternoon.

That's really been the story of this winter. There's been plenty of snow, but it hasn't really been cold enough for it to stick around for any length of time except on higher ground, which is quite strange.

Still, the charts for mid February really do look encouraging now !

[Weather-history]

Why do some people presume what the next chart might show instead of waiting for that chart to come out then making an assessment?! It will be out within a few minutes or even less with GFS, you know!

Edited February 7, 2013 by Weather-history

[bobbydog]

I see funny side!! Just object to the comparative remark of children akin to our forecasters. That's belittling their skills and equally the very stressful responsibility they endure whenever delineating warnings of this type of marginality via PWS conference and having to go public with it.

not to mention the extensive training they have to undertake to reach that position.

[TyphoonNow]

I can't understand that in 2013, the professional meteorologists cannot give any certainty, within a little over 24 hours, as to weather it will snow and where it will snow. Utterly frustrating for people who have plans for the weekend and need to know the weather forecast to a reliable degree of accuracy.

Man on the moon? Weather tomorrow?

[Love Snow]

How come winter is over. Once the snow misses the south ?? Up in Leeds two weeks back we had some ofthe heaviest snow I've seen in my lifetime I'm 26 btw!!

So remember its not all about the SE

[Weather-history]

How the track of a low and how far the precipitation can be wrongly forecast even less than 12 hours out.

From 18th November 1996 and the precipitation was predicted by David Lee to reach southern Northern England later on. If you look at the next broadcast and the radar, where did the precipitation get up to later on? Southern Scotland and that was by midday

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not quite fit for the MT I feel by my god, another insane CFS run for March:

A sub zero month for the west of Scotland:

Just for fun of course.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I would just like to say something regarding the snow this wkend.

It's all well and good all of us speculating where in the uk will get the snow , and guessing how much it looks like ones may get , but yet again , the weather looks like making fools out of all of us, and by that I mean , us lot on hear , the bbc , the met office , and the computer models which in all fairness has absolutely know idea until at the most 24hrs before the event , because it was only 2 days ago , the met o put warnings out for very high totals of snow , not just on Sunday , but again on Monday , I heard 25cm of snow been mentioned at one point , but now , not only has the computer models bought everything much much further south , including the bbc , who this morning has it getting to the midlands , where as yesterday it was touching far northeast England , but aswell as that its becoming a fairly weak affair , the bbc just said disruptive snowfall , maybe as much as 2-5cm in the midlands ????? Disruptive snow ?? Having a laugh as far as I'm concerned , as much as I understand why they get it wrong , which is simply because they follow computer models , as much as any of us lot on hear do . To save the embarrassment of them looking fools and having people complaining when they get it wrong , why not simply just hint at the possibility of snow , but go no further than that? No speculation of where , and certainly no speculation of amounts , because people prepare for the worse , when people read the Met warnings , they may rearrange travel plans , change flight days , cancel appointments , only to see the next day an inch of snow been forecast .

This goes on all to often , we see this year in year out .

This has to be said , sorry if it offends others , but it's the truth , and really don't understand speculating on what a computer is saying when it changes every 6 hours or so.just leave the forecasting to much nearer the time .

Edited February 9, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[That ECM]

I would just like to say something regarding the snow this wkend.

It's all well and good all of us speculating where in the uk will get the snow , and guessing how much it looks like ones may get , but yet again , the weather looks like making fools out of all of us, and by that I mean , us lot on hear , the bbc , the met office , and the computer models which in all fairness has absolutely know idea until at the most 24hrs before the event , because it was only 2 days ago , the met o put warnings out for very high totals of snow , not just on Sunday , but again on Monday , I heard 25cm of snow been mentioned at one point , but now , not only has the computer models bought everything much much further south , including the bbc , who this morning has it getting to the midlands , where as yesterday it was touching far northeast England , but aswell as that its becoming a fairly weak affair , the bbc just said disruptive snowfall , maybe as much as 2-5cm in the midlands ????? Disruptive snow ?? Having a laugh as far as I'm concerned , as much as I understand why they get it wrong , which is simply because they follow computer models , as much as any of us lot on hear do . To save the embarrassment of them looking fools and having people complaining when they get it wrong , why not simply just hint at the possibility of snow , but go no further than that? No speculation of where , and certainly no speculation of amounts , because people prepare for the worse , when people read the Met warnings , they may rearrange travel plans , change flight days , cancel appointments , only to see the next day an inch of snow been forecast .

This goes on all to often , we see this year in year out .

This has to be said , sorry if it offends others , but it's the truth , and really don't understand speculating on what a computer is saying when it changes every 6 hours or so.just leave the forecasting to much nearer the time .

Now turn it around and think of the implications of doing what you suggest. No warnings, snow up grades nearer the time and they start putting out warnings giving the public little notice. They can go with what they see, explain it is uncertain and keep the public upto date. The fact is you have read to much into their warnings, disregarded the bits of uncertainty and are now disappointed because you feel that you are not going to get as much snow. Stop having ago at the meto in a situation that is a forecast nightmare.

Edited February 9, 2013 by That ECM

[mr snowman]

Well a nice Shepard's warning sunrise here in sw london as to whether or not its for snow sleet or rain is another question.

Looking forward to todays runs to see if that LP tracks further sw.

Just seen the latest BBC forecast and it does seem to track further sw but it also seems to fizzle out pretty quickly. Quite a change from yesterdays BBC forecast

[Zastruga]

I would just like to say something regarding the snow this wkend.

It's all well and good all of us speculating where in the uk will get the snow , and guessing how much it looks like ones may get , but yet again , the weather looks like making fools out of all of us, and by that I mean , us lot on hear , the bbc , the met office , and the computer models which in all fairness has absolutely know idea until at the most 24hrs before the event , because it was only 2 days ago , the met o put warnings out for very high totals of snow , not just on Sunday , but again on Monday , I heard 25cm of snow been mentioned at one point , but now , not only has the computer models bought everything much much further south , including the bbc , who this morning has it getting to the midlands , where as yesterday it was touching far northeast England , but aswell as that its becoming a fairly weak affair , the bbc just said disruptive snowfall , maybe as much as 2-5cm in the midlands ????? Disruptive snow ?? Having a laugh as far as I'm concerned , as much as I understand why they get it wrong , which is simply because they follow computer models , as much as any of us lot on hear do . To save the embarrassment of them looking fools and having people complaining when they get it wrong , why not simply just hint at the possibility of snow , but go no further than that? No speculation of where , and certainly no speculation of amounts , because people prepare for the worse , when people read the Met warnings , they may rearrange travel plans , change flight days , cancel appointments , only to see the next day an inch of snow been forecast .

This goes on all to often , we see this year in year out .

This has to be said , sorry if it offends others , but it's the truth , and really don't understand speculating on what a computer is saying when it changes every 6 hours or so.just leave the forecasting to much nearer the time .

And you don't ever speculate?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Now turn it around and think of the implications of doing what you suggest. No warnings, snow up grades nearer the time and they start putting out warnings giving the public little notice. They can go with what they see, explain it is uncertain and keep the public upto date. The fact is you have read to much into their warnings, disregarded the bits of uncertainty and are now disappointed because you feel that you are not going to get as much snow. Stop having ago at the meto in a situation that is a forecast nightmare.

Erm the fact is your completely wrong, yesterday I wasn't in the fireing line . Now I am . So please don't tell me the way I feel?

The facts are I'm never against warnings of some sort , or advisories , but speculating how much when it always changes is wrong , mentioning the possibility is one thing , but talking of nearly a foot is another , when they have know idea , one thing I NEVER do is read too much into a snow event some 4 days away so be carefull when you throw accusations around next time , and for the record I wasn't having "a go" at the met , I'm simply saying it how it is .

One thing to warm , yes , but another to talk of a poss 24 hour event leading to lots disruptive snow , when infact , going by experience , they should all know better.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[snowblizzard]

BBC weather presenter seemed very down beat this morning probably because they've got it wrong yet again!!

Track of the low on Sunday appears to be much further South/West and fizzles out quite quickly with the risk of significant snow virtually gone.

They are now playing it down with possibly 2-5cm of snowfall.

Egg on those Meto faces yet again!

[chicken soup]

I would just like to say something regarding the snow this wkend.u

It's all well and good atll of us speculating where in the uk will get the snow , and guessing how much it looks like ones may get , but yet again , the weather looks like making fools out of all of us, and by that I mean , us lot on hear , the bbc , the met office , and the computer models which in all fairness has absolutely know idea until at the most 24hrs before the event , because it was only 2 days ago , the met o put warnings out for very high totals of snow , not just on Sunday , but again on Monday , I heard 25cm of snow been mentioned at one point , but now , not only has the computer models bought everything much much further south , including the bbc , who this morning has it getting to the midlands , where as yesterday it was touching far northeast England , but aswell as that its becoming a fairly weak affair , the bbc just said disruptive snowfall , maybe as much as 2-5cm in the midlands ????? Disruptive snow ?? Having a laugh as far as I'm concerned , as much as I understand why they get it wrong , which is simply because they follow computer models , as much as any of us lot on hear do . To save the embarrassment of them looking fools and having people complaining when they get it wrong , why not simply just hint at the possibility of snow , but go no further than that? No speculation of where , and certainly no speculation of amounts , because people prepare for the worse , when people read the Met warnings , they may rearrange travel plans , change flight days , cancel appointments , only to see the next day an inch of snow been forecast .

This goes on all to often , we see this year in year out .

This has to be said , sorry if it offends others , but it's the truth , and really don't understand speculating on what a computer is saying when it changes every 6 hours or so.just leave the forecasting to much nearer the time .

. Exccellent post and i agree with all of it....disruptive snow my backside....take a look at new york thats disruptive snow.

[andy100]

Well it's a non event for the whole of the UK now surprise surprise

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Dont forget me CMA is saying , i am upgrade .

As i said earlier alle options on the table please.

[chionomaniac]

Just a polite reminder - this is the moaning / ramping thread - not the arguing thread.

Please respect other members with the way you post.