Wales Cymru Cold Spell Regional Discussion

[Panayiotis]

Yes check this latest video for the SW from Ian F, shows snow showers for Cardiff.... http://news.bbc.co.u...000/7760862.stm

Edited January 11, 2013 by Panayiotis

[andymusic]

Your all concentrating on the detail a little too much - all the models don't have a handle on this - too difficult to predict - only thing now is radar - head out of window - watch lampost! - ALL I CAN SAY IS IT'S BONE CHILLINGLY COLD OUTSIDE UP HERE IN THE CROWS NEST - THE LATEST NAE IS SHOWING SNOW ON THE TOPS OF MOUNTAINS - I WOULD SAY THAT IS SUBJECT TO VAST AMOUNTS OF CHANGE BETWEEN EVEN NOW AND TOMOZ!

On a slightly "warmer" note - I recieved a letter yesterday from non other than the HOUSE OF COMMONS - it seems my two revolutionary ideas for the NHS are UNIQUE and are being valued by the powers that be up in London - not sure what to make of it - but I'm getting the idea that I might be asked up for tea by the PM in the next letter - who knows eh! I'm sure me and David can enjoy some tea and hob knobs and put the UK to rights there and then!

Edited January 11, 2013 by andymusic

[J10]

Latest Ski Blog now out, with Synoptic analysis from GFS for the coming week.

http://forum.netweat...h-january-2013/

Latest Synoptic summary taken from Alps Blog

Synoptic Charts

The charts shown are based on the GFS run of 12Hz on Friday 11th Jan.

Sat 12 Jan

So if we start the Synoptic Analysis on Saturday. There is deep low Pressure to the North of Scandinavia, feeding some very cold air into northern parts here. A surface High over Greenland with Low Pressure over the western Atlantic, there is a high pressure over Scandinavia and this is feeding in some very cold air for much of Northern and Eastern mainland Europe. There is low pressure to the SE f the UK moving South Eastwards over the southern parts of the UK, introducing the easterly to give colder air to the UK, and a wintry mix of weather to southern areas.

Sun 13 Jan

By Sunday the low pressure had moved into Europe and a colder Easterly flow has set up over the UK. A easterly feed over much of Northern Europe giving cool or cold conditions over the Alps. A low pressure system is establishing itself to the NW of the UK.

Mon 14 Jan

Monday seeing the low pressure mentioned above move South Easterly across the over the UK, with the chance of widespread snow over the UK, at his stage more especially for eastern area, although this is currently uncertain. Over Europe a NE feed is set up over the Alps, turning very cold here. Further to the west of the UK the Azores high is ridging further north giving a tenuous block to Greenland..

Tue 15 Jan

On Tuesdays chart you can see High Pressure to the Azores and over Scandinavia with low pressure over the UK running though much of Europe. To the west there is milder weather attempting to push in from the Atlantic.

Wed 16 Jan to Fri 18 Jan

After this point there is huge model uncertainty and things are likely to change a number of times, at this stage GFS keeps it cold with a NE flow over the UK before collapsing the High to the south and allowing SW winds to start push in from the west. In contrast the ECM keeping the High Pressure closer to the UK, so still cold but drier.

Despite the synoptic uncertainty, looking very cold over the Alps and much of mainland Europe.

Whatever happens these charts can be used to see how well GFS has done at the end of the week.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Jackone

[welshwizard]

this is the place to be guys South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013 all very happy in there and all rushing about to get some extra bread and milk. be nice if they get it as we will know that the models do work coz from what I have seen they are rubbish at making decisions in fact they worse than my wife when she is wondering what to do to her hair ha ha

[Jayfromcardiff]

Hope it snows Monday as it's my birthday - what a present that'll be! personally i think it will, we've been unlucky this winter so far.

[J10]

this is the place to be guys South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013 all very happy in there and all rushing about to get some extra bread and milk. be nice if they get it as we will know that the models do work coz from what I have seen they are rubbish at making decisions in fact they worse than my wife when she is wondering what to do to her hair ha ha

I do hope she doesn't have access to this thread.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Jackone

[andymusic]

this is the place to be guys South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013 all very happy in there and all rushing about to get some extra bread and milk. be nice if they get it as we will know that the models do work coz from what I have seen they are rubbish at making decisions in fact they worse than my wife when she is wondering what to do to her hair ha ha

Models are totally crap at these types of set ups - and I'm betting the snow is now not far away!

[Ms_Natalie]

Evening ladies and gents!

Still looks uncertain for us...I remember a few years back watching this thread as we were absolutely hammered by the snow. I remember walking my dog over the local field and it was certainly blizzard conditions. Couldn't see infront of our noses it was that bad! Had a good half an hour of really extreme snow! Loved it!

Looking forward to watching this thread unravel this weekend...fingers crossed for some snow, but hoping I can get to the hospital Tuesday as we have our first baby scan!

So, if anyones having a beverage this friday evening, have one for me!

[gareth moo]

Where's Jamie?

If you're out there, how do you see this developing?

[J10]

Just looking at the latest fax chart for T72hrs, interestingly the UKMO have removed the warm sector with just an occlusion clearing se.

This probably also ties in with Ian F's comments on the BBC where he hinted at the snow risk perhaps extending further west.

Note how the front has occluded and there is a trough pushing into the West.

In the same way that the snow warnings were reduced today as expected, tomorrow may see the snow warnings increase IF the UKMO 00Hz charts are similar to the tonight's 12Hz UKMO.

[Ms_Natalie]

Just thought Id post a piccy of that crazy snow! Fingers crossed we get a dumping like this!

[Jackfrost]

When was that picture taken Natalie? December 2010? Amazing month.

Two of my pictures from the 17th. Good day, that.

The rest in my gallery:

http://forum.netweat...wales-17-12-10/

Edited January 11, 2013 by Jackfrost

[Ms_Natalie]

Yep this was 18th December 2010! My cousin got married on the 27th November 2010 and I remember having to take 7 trips to the venue because a coach couldn't get up the hill due to the ice on the roads!

Amazing photos Jackfrost!! Really enjoyed looking through them. Even more in the mood for this now! Thanks for sharing

[welshwizard]

I am having a few Newcastle brown ales for you,and they are bloody lvly fair play.

Evening ladies and gents!

Still looks uncertain for us...I remember a few years back watching this thread as we were absolutely hammered by the snow. I remember walking my dog over the local field and it was certainly blizzard conditions. Couldn't see infront of our noses it was that bad! Had a good half an hour of really extreme snow! Loved it!

Looking forward to watching this thread unravel this weekend...fingers crossed for some snow, but hoping I can get to the hospital Tuesday as we have our first baby scan!

So, if anyones having a beverage this friday evening, have one for me!

[pyrotech]

Some more good news

Have a look at 12z monday surface pressure charts, the 528 dam is now completely around Wales, The fronts are over us too.

The previous charts for same time show them back towards Newport and along the Wales / England border.

So that changes percipitation likelyhood of being snow.

[Ms_Natalie]

Glad you're enjoying them Welsh Wizard!

I'm working tomorrow so shall be looking out the windows all through my shift! My colleagues think I'm weather crazy anyway...I still havn't stopped talking about being in the Dominican when Hurricane Sandy passed! Thanks to this forum aswell, I let them all know on Tuesday that we were in for a cold spell..way ahead of the media!

Any ideas of when we can start to expect some flakes?

[keithlucky]

Some more good news

Have a look at 12z monday surface pressure charts, the 528 dam is now completely around Wales, The fronts are over us too.

The previous charts for same time show them back towards Newport and along the Wales / England border.

So that changes percipitation likelyhood of being snow.

When asked were it will snow in the UK on Monday met replied ANYWHERE say it all really ,interesting watching the fax charts noticed how the occluded front never makes it to the east coast let"s see on the next fax if it stalls further west. Edited January 11, 2013 by keithlucky

[virtualsphere]

NMM has sleet for areas in mid and east Wales tomorrow, with a chance of some snow later on in the evening in SE (probably light and showery in nature). Sadly looks like rain here in the west at the moment. Sunday looks like a drier day. Jury is out on Monday at the moment in terms of specifics - all depends what happens with that front!

[TonyH]

Given the model fluctuations of recent days, regardless of what the ECM says nothing is decided tonight.

It's the same most times we have snow potential is it not? Never truly know until you see it snowing outside.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Will provide more analysis on Saturday's possible snow event after NAE 18z has come out later this evening.

Just looking through the 12Z GFS data and you can see how the 0C Isotherm drops as we pull in an easterly feed off the continent. 0C isotherm basically represents the height at which the temperature is 0C.

http://cdn.nwstatic....degisotherm.png < GFS @ 30hrs

http://cdn.nwstatic....degisotherm.png < GFS @ 33hrs

Precipitation charts for the same time:

http://cdn.nwstatic....2/30/ukprec.png < 30hrs

http://cdn.nwstatic....2/33/ukprec.png < 33hrs

Now lets take a look at the dew points for the same time:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs308.gif < 30hrs

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs338.gif < 33hrs

So we can see dew points dropping close to freezing for most in S/SE Wales as we enter the later evening tomorrow, indeed precipitation distribution is uncertain and how heavy especially as we see the cold air get introduced from the east. Precipitation modelled to be over S/SE Wales for a few runs now, indeed heavier more so towards the SE.

My current thinking is that as we go into tomorrow evening quite a few places in south Wales away from immediate coasts should see some light snow falling, not likely to be sticking other than the higher ground.

[ourson]

Just been out in the garden - it's very mild. A blanket of cloud overhead - looking very grey. Had some quite thick frost on the car this morning which was a change. Haven't had to scrape the windscreen for quite a while. It seems unlikely to me that we can go from mild and boring (re. the weather for the last month) to something exceptional in the matter of 24/48 hours.

On a more positive front, I am 99.9% certain of seeing snow in the next few weeks. I'm off to the Alps for a week's skiing. Bring it on!

[pyrotech]

Jackone

You were right last night, for tomorrow the evaporative cooling (lack of) seems to have made a difference.

Not put us out of it, but less percipitation, longer to turn to snow and perhaps only sticking at higher elevations.

Good call by you

[J10]

It's the same most times we have snow potential is it not? Never truly know until you see it snowing outside.

Just wish the same applied when rain is forecast.

[J10]

Jackone

You were right last night, for tomorrow the evaporative cooling (lack of) seems to have made a difference.

Not put us out of it, but less percipitation, longer to turn to snow and perhaps only sticking at higher elevations.

Good call by you

I still hope I am wrong !!!

[freeze for all]

Apparently it's snowing in churchvillage now! Don't know how true this is but it was on facebook just now by 1 of my mrs' friends