Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[Frosty.]

well i'm gonna stick it out there i think this time we WILL get a good cold spell

When?

I think we may have a shot the week after next if the lows can move south/southeast because the cold block looks like it will still be lurking over northeast europe and all it needs is for our band of low pressure to sink and bingo. Next week it looks like we have a controlling low to the west of the uk but at least it won't be mild.

[Buriedundersnow]

When?

I think we may have a shot the week after next if the lows can move south/southeast because the cold block looks like it will still be lurking over northeast europe and all it needs is for our band of low pressure to sink and bingo. Next week it looks like we have a controlling low to the west of the uk but at least it won't be mild.

go and read my post in the mayhem thread on sunday night

would link it to here but dont know how to

Edited December 11, 2012 by Buriedundersnow

[Frosty.]

nurse !!!!

Matron

As for the models, there are signs of hope emerging in the mid range for another cold plunge as shown at the end of the ecm 00z and in FI on the gfs 06z, lets hope the 12z can keep the momentum going.

[Paceyboy]

Again, if anyone has noticed, the GFS is edging everything south or south/sotuh west with every run, now continuing on the 12z. Litterally just 30-50miles each time.

Just shows the stoic nature of the cold dense air over the continent! Lovely!

[MR EXTREMES]

Again, if anyone has noticed, the GFS is edging everything south or south/sotuh west with every run, now continuing on the 12z. Litterally just 30-50miles each time.

Just shows the stoic nature of the cold dense air over the continent! Lovely!

your right it is slightly south than yesterday

[snowmadchrisuk]

Again, if anyone has noticed, the GFS is edging everything south or south/sotuh west with every run, now continuing on the 12z. Litterally just 30-50miles each time.

Just shows the stoic nature of the cold dense air over the continent! Lovely!

Was just going to say that , I rarely comment at such an early stage of a model run , but on the 12z it is obvious ... I am liking this trend and hopefully it will continue , I don't think we have enough time to stop it coming in to the UK at all , but if it sinks South eventually we could get a Colder setup quicker than we think .

Edited December 11, 2012 by snowmadchrisuk

[MKN]

Again, if anyone has noticed, the GFS is edging everything south or south/sotuh west with every run, now continuing on the 12z. Litterally just 30-50miles each time.

Just shows the stoic nature of the cold dense air over the continent! Lovely!

Looks like to little to late tho imo. Which is a shame had the low gone under the block the UK would be very cold and very snowy.

[Summer Sun]

Before the 12Z's get fully underway here's another longer range model to throw into the mix

That's the updated November chart no idea when Decembers is out

Edited December 11, 2012 by Gavin.

[Methuselah]

Was just going to say that , I rarely comment at such an early stage of a model run , but on the 12z it is obvious ... I am liking this trend and hopefully it will continue , I don't think we have enough time to stop it coming in to the UK at all , but if it sinks South eventually we could get a Colder setup quicker than we think .

Everyday, it seems, someone makes the claim that 'everything is shifting southwards'...By that reckoning, the Atlantic HP should be over the Canaries by the end of the week...

Edited December 11, 2012 by Rybris Ponce

[snowmadchrisuk]

Off topic but its snowing here in coventry

Off topic but its snowing here in coventry

It is probably Snow grains caused by the Freezing fog that is currently in your area , If we have any chance of keeping a Cold surface instances of that would become more common.

[stainesbloke]

Frosty you're getting as melodramatic as me! I think I'm a bad influence!

Just for you:

IMO one of the greatest songs ever, featuring my all time favourite female artist and puts to shame most of the tosh that masquerades as music today!

I think I'm showing my age here!

You never know Frosty whats round the corner, if we can slow down those lows and a bit more energy heads se then things may change quickly!

You know Kate Bush did a whole album about snow! so shes one of us! I'm glad the mods didn't delete this, no one messes with KB! lol

Lol...love the Bush! I'm still hopeful of cold/snow by Christmas...each run edging lows further S/SW, not by a great deal but its movement in the right direction.

[Snowman.]

Before the 12Z's get fully underway here's another longer range model to throw into the mix

Is there a up to date one it was released in November.

Edited December 11, 2012 by SN0WM4N

[winterof79]

Before the 12Z's get fully underway here's another longer range model to throw into the mix

Scratches head....... Is that showing only above normal everywhere.Most of mainland europe is below now.

[MR EXTREMES]

Before the 12Z's get fully underway here's another longer range model to throw into the mix

sorry got to lol about this model i think its already wrong.

certainly nothing mild at t96 on the gfs and i take back the more southerly track but it is on hell of an alantic storm.

but it would suggest possibly cold and snowy in the far north of scotland.

will the block to our east hold it back....

Edited December 11, 2012 by badboy657

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Lol...love the Bush! I'm still hopeful of cold/snow by Christmas...each run edging lows further S/SW, not by a great deal but its movement in the right direction.

Oh how I love a good bush!!!!

[Summer Sun]

Is there a up to date one it was released in November.

That's the updated November chart no idea when Decembers is out

[Snowman.]

T108 looks as if its hit that brick wall and is losing energy!

That's the updated November chart no idea when Decembers is out

Ok thanks anyway.

[AWD]

Oh how I love a good bush!!!!

Just don't forget the strimmer.

[PLANET THANET]

I guess we just need to keep believing and keep reading what GP and others who know more, the alternative is to just give up.

I agree but where is he

[bluearmy]

second upstream shortwave is 400 miles slower. thats a positive sign and might help the initial depression to disrupt more before it arrives to bolster the feature.

EDIT: its quite usual for stewart not o post when there is not much to say. the month is running several degrees below average. his forecast remains intact althoughi it was clear he expected this easterly to deliver and did not expect the pattern to end up 400 miles north of where it was modelled to be.

EDIT 2: the slowness of depression 2 means that depression 3 may not get caught behind the hudson bay ridge. one step forward may mean 2 back and shows how tenuous the pattern may be to generate an atlantic ridge

Edited December 11, 2012 by bluearmy

[Summer Sun]

Northern blocking is still showing on GFS tonight

Most of the rain looks like staying on the western side of the UK

After a brief warm up colder air filters back in again

I agree but where is he

GP was on the forums this afternoon but hasn't posted since Friday

[shotski]

I agree but where is he

Rumour has it he was last seen in a top secret Cobra meeting with the PM.

[Snowman.]

Jet remaining further south on this run.

Undercutting?

Edited December 11, 2012 by SN0WM4N

[PLANET THANET]

Northern blocking is still showing on GFS tonight

Most of the rain looks like staying on the western side of the UK

After a brief warm up colder air filters back in again

GP was on the forums this afternoon but hasn't posted since Friday

many thanks, looking forward to his next post (hope its positive and still on track)

[Snowly does it]

For cold, generally positive movements out to T168, heights remain, the Atlantic lows are less intense and it generally looks much more amenable to a cold outcome. We really do need to wait for another 48 hours before a clear pattern once the low starts to decline or fragment is within the 90 hours area