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Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Christ if anything like this verified then the UK would be shut down due to hurricane force winds crazy.gif

post-9615-0-16959500-1355252651_thumb.gi

Nope everybody would go to work as normal unless it snows of course then it just stops. At least the low would give us something to talk about and actually get worried. Needless to say unlikely to be there next run.

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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted (edited)

Well, It will be interesting to see how the remainder of the month pans. Just watched netweather winter forecast and they are going for cold spell from mid january, in line with wave activity affecting our weather in 6 week cycles. Goes someway to explaining the cold spell we've just had. Chiono may be able to clarify what exactly they are relating to. I'm not the person to ask lol.

But the the pressure charts looked favorable for mid january. High pressure in Northern Europe and LP in Southern Europe. Picture the LP undercutting at the weekend and that's what it resembled.

They also forecast below avg temps for december, and as it stands, it looks like remaining avg temps at best which would be a feather in the cap for the Netweather team as the December monthly CET would come in below average.

Edited by IBringTheHammer
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

But as I said it isn't wrong yet. So he has the first 11 days in the bag - the rest is only a forecast. So why don't you wait until the end of the month before criticising?

That's the thing though Chiono, there was no criticism; unlike some of the posts on here today. I've actually said (if you re-read) that he'll probably be pretty much spot on in the grand scheme of things (which is praise is it not?). Some of my post was also based on supposition RE model output- something which I admitted within the post itself.

Forecasting for our tiny island is no mean feat so I have nothing but admiration for those who present their forecast clearly and concisely, utilising a plethora of forecasting tools and signals......i.e GP

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

And your mean chart also shows how decent the cpc charts have been, despite most not appreciating what they are showing.

The problem is ba, is that everyone looks at the 500 hPa anomaly charts but many fail to read them properly. An anomaly is just that - greater or less than normal to a certain degree. That degree does not necessarily lead to large differences on the ground but sometimes it does which is why the CET is down 1.9ºC according to Philip Eden - some would lead you to think that we are above for the month!

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

But as I said it isn't wrong yet. So he has the first 11 days in the bag - the rest is only a forecast. So why don't you wait until the end of the month before criticising?

Agreed , the models are only forecasting , they were so so wrong recently so why will they will be right now ?? Granted we are to see a period of milder weather with wind and rain, but what happens in a wks time or less is open to debate isn't it? After all we all mo how quickly the models can drop or pick something up don't we?

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

Tonight's ECM ensembles are out, plenty of cold member starting to appear and with increased precipitation..............

15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png?6767676767

PLUIM_06260_NWT.png?6767676767

Edited by Gavin.
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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

post-16336-0-28991300-1355261362_thumb.p

ECM ensembles are a lot better tonight, haven't got 00z to compare for certain but there are more colder options in the longer term tonight.

post-16336-0-52963700-1355261487_thumb.p

Same can be said about GEFS this evening, trending colder in the long term.

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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted

Tonight's ECM ensembles are out

15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png?6767676767

PLUIM_06260_NWT.png?6767676767

ECM temps trending colder towards the end of the month, while the precipitation trends up... time to dig out the brolly again.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

ECM temps trending colder towards the end of the month, while the precipitation trends up... time to dig out the brolly again.

Brolly? You mean sledge! :);)
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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted (edited)

He said brolly as Sledge may curse it lol

Exactly. I'm taking my GF to Aviemore in January so I can go snowboarding (She skis wacko.png ) . My board only got used twice last year, so there will be no jinxing lol. tease.gif

Edited by IBringTheHammer
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Tom Montalbano Maestro

Tom Montalbano

Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
Posted

Looking to see the track of the low that exits the eastern seaboard at around t144, could aid in throwing a ridge ahead of it in the Atlantic and help change the pattern re. the stubborn trough to west and over UK.

Regards,

Tom.

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CanadaAl Enthusiast

CanadaAl

Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
Posted

Low splitting at T+72, does anyone know what implications this could have?

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Low splitting at T+72, does anyone know what implications this could have?

2 seperate lows?

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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted (edited)

Low splitting at T+72, does anyone know what implications this could have?

Will help to keep temps a touch lower as it recycles colder air to us faster than a cell further out west. As for FI.... no clue.

The cell center transfers to over the UK which flattens the northern flank of the LP. Keeps colder air closer to us.... interesting to see what happens down the line. Not as much amplification either.

Edited by IBringTheHammer
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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

We need to give the models a good 3 days I believe before we begin to see some consistency in the likely evolution as we head towards christmas, until we see the change to atlantic low pressure take over on Friday, the models are very likely to continue to show various scenarios and therefore reliable timeframe at present is very short - 96hrs tops. I suspect by the weekend the models will start to show the trough edging SE as we see height rises over the mid atlantic and more importantly over Greenland for the days leading up to christmas. There are hints of this in the ECM chart for the 21st.

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

do u think two lows could help spiral each other down to the continant.

prob a stupid question but had to ask

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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted (edited)

do u think two lows could help spiral each other down to the continant.

prob a stupid question but had to ask

The Jet stream is trying to send it under the HP block. But, the LP just isn't squeezing by.

Edited by IBringTheHammer
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

Shortwave sent east into the seaboard. This will have a real knock on effect in FI, this has also seem to weaken the low as its taken a bit more energy east.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

This run looks close to an undercut at 102? Am I right? Shortwave to the south trying to pull energy under the block but low W of Greenland looks to strong?

Apologies if talking rubbish haha

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