Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[PolarWarsaw]

I think it's fair to say, of Steve explains that there is no hope for cold fans within at least the next 7 days and the patterns we are now in are poor - then we should take a weeks break away as he points out.

The Synoptics looks oh so very poor and despondent in comparison to this time 7 days ago.

[Panayiotis]

The run to run model variations continue to intrigue today.

I think what scuppered the chances of colder air arriving by now was the strength of the Atlantic jet and the models suffered much confusion over this. But one thing that has persisted from run to run over a few days is that big Russian HP and while that is still lurking, I sense there is a high probability of a more stable blocking pattern setting up and consequent arrival of cold air.

Am i right in saying that this will also cool the air around the region where the high pressure is, so *if* we have an easterly it would be a colder one? Edited December 11, 2012 by panayiotis

[lorenzo]

hopefully we scots see the cold next week

Are you an eskimo BUS? it is currently -10 in some areas up here !

People this is a CR*P pattern to be in. I hope things can change soon as it all looked so rosie 5 days ago...

S

It certainly looks like another nuisance pattern, seems that each winter we have to experience a limpet something, even in 09/10 we had limpet blocks and a limpet high anchored off the west coast of the UK. Blue Army spotted the PV reformation over Greenland again in week 2 on GEFS and this is certainly showing on GFS. We do need a kick from somewhere to get that Jet moving, here is the 7 day mean highlighting the problem..

I can see Nick S lining up the Nukes soon, am sure he won't be putting up with much more of this.. whilst it might be a 'borefest' right at the end of each GFS run there is something worth watching if you haven't dozed off by round 40 of Atlantic vs Block.

[UV-RAY]

Ed

Correct in your reply BUT for me its about synoptics....even if we get a very mild second half to give me a 6.3 CET...my overall Dec forecast is bust....the synoptics thus far I'm out of kilt. GP has forecast HP from East extending to NW UK/particularly S Greenland, if models projections are right GP is way off the mark.....BUT only for Dec at thkis stage [but I'll have a friendly wager that will be bust too]...though as you say / reply to CC...yes things haven't happened yet....but many are 'hankering' on that forecast and its under severe pressure.

I'll wager anyone that GP's forecast for December ends up a country mile off, both synoptically and temperature wise. The residual energy from the displaced PV has caught all off guard.

[Davey80]

I honestly think people are kidding themselves. We are going to be stuck in this pattern for a while now I believe. Think we can write off the next 4 weeks for any proper cold and if it doesn't happen by mid Jan then we all know its starting to look like game over for the winter! Hopefully my move to Canada will be complete by end of 2013 so I'll get my snow then.

[Long haul to mild]

A reading below 5 signals imminent danger and we'll have to do some emergency straw clutching operations!

Does that involve regularly wheeling out the NOGAPS and that Brazilian model Nick? :o)

[OldMetMan]

Am i right in saying that this will also cool the air around the region where the high pressure is, so *if* we have an easterly it would be a colder one?

Yes I think so, while the HP persists, the air is growing colder anyway as we move towards January (temps below -30C kind of thing) but the thickness charts bear this out.

I know an awful lot of things need to happen for this to take off but I remain convinced that we are entering that "kind" of winter with some significant blocking at some point. Goodness knows we have had enough LP dominated weather this year! Time the hP got a look in.

[Bristawl Si]

Does that involve regularly wheeling out the NOGAPS and that Brazilian model Nick? :o)

Roll out any Brazilian model at the mo - of much greater interest than any weather model output at this time!

[Cheshire Freeze]

People this is a CR*P pattern to be in.

No blocking over greenland, ( there hasnt been any yet so far - irrespective what charts people want to post or anomalies)

Blocking to far east & residual heights west of scandi to low & always moving NW- which is allowing the lows to stay in situ-

People may as well scrub the next 7 days out of the calender winter weather wise ..... Im taking a break for a few days.

Its clear the December forecasts over Greenland are a bust-as out to day 8 there is no blocking- so that takes us to 20th.

I hope things can change soon as it all looked so rosie 5 days ago...

S

Exactly what I've been trying to say, summed up succinctly right there. Except I've been getting flak for saying it!

No point trying to big up a turd as a diamond!

[NL]

I've already started!

http://modeles.meteo...om-0-240.png?12

Thats not a million miles away for what the 500Mb cpc 8-14 day show for the 22nd.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I honestly think people are kidding themselves. We are going to be stuck in this pattern for a while now I believe. Think we can write off the next 4 weeks for any proper cold and if it doesn't happen by mid Jan then we all know its starting to look like game over for the winter! Hopefully my move to Canada will be complete by end of 2013 so I'll get my snow then.

Emotionally driven nuisance I'm afraid , the models can't predict next wk but you can write off the whole winter on the 11th December , that's brightened my mood up thanks for that mate !

[TEITS]

Exactly what I've been trying to say, summed up succinctly right there. Except I've been getting flak for saying it!

No point trying to big up a turd as a diamond!

Yes but we have to interpret the model output for the whole of the UK (well I do anyway) and potentially parts of Scotland could be in a far more favourable position next week than say Kent!

[Continental Climate]

I would say thats correct about out to day 8th with no cold insight atm within this timeframe however I think closer to Xmas is a possible shout if the jet becomes more amplified, needs to be more amplified on the 18z for me. Overall, not a bad output with potential longer term once more. I think we're all going to need a break soon Steve, been a long few weeks but its sure been exciting more to come!

Im not sure i would call it exciting more frustrating than anything else, no point in constant excitement only to see it go pear shaped all the time. I agree with SM no real cold this side of xmas i think!! remember folks this pattern can eat up precious days of winter which we cant afford!! I will never critiscise people when their forecast does not go right as i never even produced one, but i think people who did forecast a cold blocked december have probably got it wrong this time unfortunately.

[nick sussex]

I've already started!

http://modeles.meteo...om-0-240.png?12

Oh its that bad you're wheeling out the BOM, I was hoping the CPTEC Brazilian model might show some interest but its stuck on 132hrs!

Apparently the offices were raided by CARMU! Crimes Against Reliable Modelling Unit! In the mayhem the Commodore Computer which runs the programme crashed to the floor!!!!!

My final review of the evening outputs,short, sharp and to the point regarding cold/snow potential off tonights operational runs!

GFS12hrs Okay GFS 18hrs CRAP

ECM Crap

UKMO Crap because it looks like the ECM at that point and its colder 144hrs runs never verify against the others, always the sheep never the shepherd!

The models hoping to someday be a part of the big 3

GEM Fair to middlin

NOGAPS Crap

JMA Fair

The model that doesn't care the CPTEC CRAP but please see the disturbing news above.

Strawclutch inspired possibilities, the GFS 12hrs is right, the ECM at 168hrs sends the energy se and then doesn't decide to find a piece of the PV ejected from the north pole!

New and by popular demand my new the Russian high is getting on my wick rating!

This has jumped this evening to 7/10!

[Buriedundersnow]

Are you an eskimo BUS? it is currently -10 in some areas up here !

It certainly looks like another nuisance pattern, seems that each winter we have to experience a limpet something, even in 09/10 we had limpet blocks and a limpet high anchored off the west coast of the UK. Blue Army spotted the PV reformation over Greenland again in week 2 on GEFS and this is certainly showing on GFS. We do need a kick from somewhere to get that Jet moving, here is the 7 day mean highlighting the problem..

I can see Nick S lining up the Nukes soon, am sure he won't be putting up with much more of this.. whilst it might be a 'borefest' right at the end of each GFS run there is something worth watching if you haven't dozed off by round 40 of Atlantic vs Block.

i should have said lengthy cold spell lol

[Ice Day]

I honestly think people are kidding themselves. We are going to be stuck in this pattern for a while now I believe. Think we can write off the next 4 weeks for any proper cold and if it doesn't happen by mid Jan then we all know its starting to look like game over for the winter! Hopefully my move to Canada will be complete by end of 2013 so I'll get my snow then.

Here it is, the first 'Winter's Over' post of the season.......it's the 11 December!!

[Continental Climate]

Perhaps a new thread can be created entitled "why i hate the russian high"!!!

[peterf]

as still hanging on for me 1 snowflake xmas day at Albermalle.

[OldMetMan]

People this is a CR*P pattern to be in.

No blocking over greenland, ( there hasnt been any yet so far - irrespective what charts people want to post or anomalies)

Blocking to far east & residual heights west of scandi to low & always moving NW- which is allowing the lows to stay in situ-

People may as well scrub the next 7 days out of the calender winter weather wise ..... Im taking a break for a few days.

Its clear the December forecasts over Greenland are a bust-as out to day 8 there is no blocking- so that takes us to 20th.

I hope things can change soon as it all looked so rosie 5 days ago...

S

I agree this LP will be swilling around for a few days and, while I freely admit to being an eternal optimist and am willing to stretch credulity sometimes with the things I say, this has been such a highly unusual year as have the patterns this autumn and winter so far. In my view, this is why there have been such massive swings in model output recently as they are having a hard time really getting a handle on the developments.

Get your sledge dusted off for January!

[Long haul to mild]

Oh its that bad you're wheeling out the BOM, I was hoping the CPTEC Brazilian model might show some interest but its stuck on 132hrs!

Apparently the offices were raided by CARMU! Crimes Against Reliable Modelling Unit! In the mayhem the Commodore Computer which runs the programme crashed to the floor!!!!!

My final review of the evening outputs,short, sharp and to the point regarding cold/snow potential off tonights operational runs!

GFS12hrs Okay GFS 18hrs CRAP

ECM Crap

UKMO Crap because it looks like the ECM at that point and its colder 144hrs runs never verify against the others, always the sheep never the shepherd!

The models hoping to someday be a part of the big 3

GEM Fair to middlin

NOGAPS Crap

JMA Fair

The model that doesn't care the CPTEC CRAP but please see the disturbing news above.

Strawclutch inspired possibilities, the GFS 12hrs is right, the ECM at 168hrs sends the energy se and then doesn't decide to find a piece of the PV ejected from the north pole!

New and by popular demand my new the Russian high is getting on my wick rating!

This has jumped this evening to 7/10!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=300&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

CFS looks nice at T300 Nick..................

[pyrotech]

Im not sure i would call it exciting more frustrating than anything else, no point in constant excitement only to see it go pear shaped all the time. I agree with SM no real cold this side of xmas i think!! remember folks this pattern can eat up precious days of winter which we cant afford!! I will never critiscise people when their forecast does not go right as i never even produced one, but i think people who did forecast a cold blocked december have probably got it wrong this time unfortunately.

I think the forecast my Chono is read wrong on here, looking at the models and what he said would happen did happen, Correct me if i am wrong but when he talked about the PV i am sure he was talking about blocking that would produce cold to engulf Europe, potentially effecting us. Look at the models and the snow charts for Europe and that has happened. It just missed us out. Obviously most of us do not care what Europe gets but care about us and our back yard.

I think his forecasts were very close, perhaps much more accurate than models were at that range. Just to give an idea to how close it came to be that his forecast would have effected us too, can i remind you what the models ECM Et Al showed a week ago.

It pretty much happened but we were a little too far West and shortwaves seemed to first spoil this pattern.

[Stu_London]

Dec 2010 was synoptically different as it was northerly based largely via a scandi trough. The current high pressure is simply too far to our east. Even with a decent undercut it wouldnt be easy to get the coldest air back this far. A decent easterly in the uk will nearly always come from a seperate high pressure cell over scandi. These beasts can also be very stable. The early 80s had a few good examples.

Jason

+1

The Russian High has delivered once in the last 30 years. Most of the time it just stagnates the pattern with us too far west to get anything other than depressions bumping into it and winds from a southerly or westerly vector. Before you know it, half of winter is wasted watching the -15C isotherm move 20 miles west or east over Norway.

Give me a scandi trough and mid atlantic high any day. They don't always work out, but at least you have the possibility of link to a greenland high and/or the transfer of heights to scandinavia. At worst you usually get a toppler and even they can be fun (Jan 2003!)

[Tom Montalbano]

Latest fax for t120, METO goes along with their own model.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/metoimages/20121211/12/met.120.png

Quite a bit different to the 18z GFS, which has the main body of low pressure just south of Iceland.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121211/18/114/h500slp.png

Regards,

Tom.

[Panayiotis]

So last it year it was the Azores high that scuppered our winter, i hope its not the Russian high this winter!

[Catacol]

Just for fun...

With all the gloom on here let's take a look at the same calendar moment in the most famous winter of all time: 1962/63. This was the NH image on 17th Dec 1962

Not a very pretty image, is it? Strong looking azores high and lots of vortex energy coming out of Canada and Greenland, and on a more northerly tack than we have at the moment. I doubt anyone in 1962 looking at that saw anything remarkable. Wind it forward 6 days:

Wow - look at that. Massive ridging of the Azores high up and over to Scandy, and end to any vortex influence in the atlantic sector. The rest is history.

For now it is hard to see a pattern change, and while the atlantic/siberian battle was correctly called in the NetW forecast the location of the battle lines has not gone our way. However people need to keep some perspective and recognise that, with the vortex set to weaken further, there is every chance of height rises where we need them, and a zonal winter at present looks impossible.

I quite like the "faux zonal" comment from earlier today because it does rather tell the story: we have a weak atlantic at present and a trough about to stagnate in just the wrong place. However the models are weakening the cut off low very quickly after the weekend and what happens at that point is still very uncertain.

Hang tough. Wait for the low pressure to blow itself out and then let's look for some surprise height rises after that.