Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[NL]

Shouldn't all the models go blank on the 21st?

Goes to show how cr@p the models are at prediction..!

[mountain shadow]

A sobering summary from Gibby.

All hopes then clinging to a SSW at the beginning of January. If it occurs then the lag time will take us to mid/late January.

In the meantime, nothing expected anytime soon.

[Tim Bland]

Here's a straw to clutch from CFS. Like many of the ensembles on GEFS it goes for an easterly around Xmas http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=288&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=10

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

How about this. Get into one's mind that its going to be a mild and green Christmas and New Year, that there's no prolonged real deep cold until end of Jan and into Feb. Then think we have Christmas to come [bRILLIANT] and any cold blocking or southerly tracking LPs we get it'll be a nice surprise and bonus....and if not then there'll be no disappointment? It works...honest

BFTP

[Frosty.]

All models are a prediction, as with the strat model, but at least it's something to cling onto at this morning for cold weather fans.

Yes PM, the only thing I cling to now is the next cold charts in FI because once this cold snap ends on friday, it looks milder and unsettled for at least the next 7-10 days but then maybe some disruption will bring another cold shot close to christmas, but it reminds me of that song from the 1980's, we're on a road to nowhere. I'm really disappointed with how the models have just gone horribly pear shaped when we were supposed to be heading into a prolonged freeze.

Edited December 12, 2012 by Frosty039

[Matty M]

ECM runs say it all really.

[Methuselah]

Goes to show how cr@p the models are at prediction..!

True enough, but they are not really there to predict; they're there to assist professional forecasters do their jobs?

Edited December 12, 2012 by Rybris Ponce
bad grammar!

[latitude]

How about this. Get into one's mind that its going to be a mild and green Christmas and New Year, that there's no prolonged real deep cold until end of Jan and into Feb. Then think we have Christmas to come [bRILLIANT] and any cold blocking or southerly tracking LPs we get it'll be a nice surprise and bonus....and if not then there'll be no disappointment? It works...honest

BFTP

Like it, but dont think anyone has the stomach to wait until Feb. That could be mean only one decent cold shot for the whole of the winter.

[Gavin Hannah]

Phhfffffftttttttt........

The only slight, minuscule, microscopic, shred of hope we have of avoiding a stagnant pattern is if the models are consistently wrong about the path of the LP. If we get to fri/sat, and it starts to undercut rather than retrogress north west-ish, then we may have a teeny tiny weeny bit of hope glimmering through the Foreboding Door of Despair.

[Frosty.]

Like it, but dont think anyone has the stomach to wait until Feb. That could be mean only one decent cold shot for the whole of the winter.

LOL true, and even that has plenty of time to go pear shaped too.

At least there are hints in the gefs mean for another dip into cold just before xmas but the run up to xmas looks milder and unsettled than recently with flooding risk returning.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Like it, but dont think anyone has the stomach to wait until Feb. That could be mean only one decent cold shot for the whole of the winter.

Carlsberg

BFTP

[Gavin Hannah]

Carlsberg

BFTP

If Carlsberg did winters..... they'd probably be the best winters in the world!

[bobbydog]

Carlsberg

BFTP

its a bit early in the day, but i do find carlsberg a comfort when the weather lets us down!

[TEITS]

its a bit early in the day, but i do find carlsberg a comfort when the weather lets us down!

Reach model output has made me want to reach for a bottle of Jack Daniels!

[Matty M]

That Azores/ Iberian High could be a real killer.

The overall synoptic is so frustrating, it as blocked as can be but everything is falling in place to keep is on the mild side.

[Frosty.]

Something tells me this won't be a carlsberg run, at least it looks colder in the scottish mountains. Becoming milder for most with temps into double digits then trending back down to nearer average next week but the main theme is very unsettled and windy at times, sometimes cooler and cyclonic with lighter winds. Maybe colder further into FI if the lows sink southeast?

Edited December 12, 2012 by Frosty039

[Methuselah]

Not exactly a scintillating run, this...the beast is both caged and on ice!

[The PIT]

Not exactly a scintillating run, this...the beast is both caged and on ice!

Sure it's not on the Bunsen burner?

[Frosty.]

Not exactly a scintillating run, this...the beast is both caged and on ice!

Yep RP, probably our best chance of a cold fix beyond thursday is to open the fridge/freezer door, the models are setting up an unsettled milder pattern, sometimes closer to average with any cold shoved well back into FI where it usually is.

Edited December 12, 2012 by Frosty039

[pureasthedriven]

That Azores/ Iberian High could be a real killer.

The overall synoptic is so frustrating, it as blocked as can be but everything is falling in place to keep is on the mild side.

Back to the jet problem. We have heights to the east, heights in Greenland (though that's only a surface high) and LP in the med. But it's all irrelevant with the jet on that trajectory, squeezing through the blocks like a boy racer diving between the fast and the slow lane on the M25!

[Snowman.]

Its a good run if you look high enough...

Not as good as the 6z run yesterday had -4 in their!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yep RP, probably our best chance of a cold fix beyond thursday is to open the fridge/freezer door, the models are setting up an unsettled milder pattern, sometimes closer to average with any cold shoved well back into FI where it usually is.

Is 2013......anyway it looks concerning on how wet it could become, and also its worth keeping an eye on Friday into Saturday it could get a tad windy and a tad wet. I suppose it'll feel chilly in the wind until the double digit temps kick in

BFTP

Edited December 12, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[tonbridgemole]

372hrs miles out into Fl...A sorry state of affairs!

Edited December 12, 2012 by moley66

[bluearmy]

very unlikely but something to look for is the following evolution in week 2.

the vortex having drifted to siberia decides to split itself in two and ejects half back towards the pole (on its trip back to ne canada). (thats not conjecture btw, it seems likely)

the conjecture bit comes as we begin to see a growing signal for another aleutian ridge to be thrown up at the same time. heights over the canadian arctic are reasonably high week 2 and its just about feasible that the aleutian ridge will build fast enough to connect to the canadian heights. this would have effect of pushing that tumbling vortex towards our part of the NH. could be greenland, could be further east than that depending on the behaviour of the russian ridge. the 06z fi hints at this and manages to push the trough pattern our side of the NH further south. even that might be enough to tip the balance for us. you never know .........................

[Weathizard]

Dreadful runs this morning I'm at 3/10 on the Nick Sussex optimism scale, that Azores high is rearing its ugly head again, either ridge north or we don't want you there so, quite frankly, go away you are not wanted. The thing is with the runs at the moment that's annoying is that its not full blown Atlantic steam train its a pathetic half hearted attempt from the Atlantic but it still manages to win because everything that can get in the way of cold, indeed does. Curse you Azores high and Atlantic lows.

Positive head - errrrrm some of the GFS 0z ensembles were quite good after the 21'st, and I've got cheese on toast for breakfast!