Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[Shunter]

well ...............according to the GFS 06z Op run the SE of England does not get any further sub -5c 850hpa temps after tonight until 27th December.....

[Troubleatmill]

That Azores/ Iberian High could be a real killer.

The overall synoptic is so frustrating, it as blocked as can be but everything is falling in place to keep is on the mild side.

Yep blocked as can be, apart from one little gap for the lows to track through, slap bang through the middle of the uk.....talk about frustration like you say, think i would rather see a raging deep PV anchored over Greenland and start a whole new fresh as this set up isnt looking like changing and we have been so incredibly unlucky for a number of weeks now, which is worse than having no chance! at least the ensembles hold a degree of hope, personally i think its time the block to east cleared off and we got some mobility back.

[latitude]

That Azores/ Iberian High could be a real killer.

The overall synoptic is so frustrating, it as blocked as can be but everything is falling in place to keep is on the mild side.

Where is the blocking? There is a high near scandy but nothing over Greenland.

[bobbydog]

whilst easteries appear to have been ruled out for a while and even height rises where we would like them are looking less likely, the projected pattern is not our typical zonal winter outlook. prolonged cold might not be on the cards (for now...)however, i think we might get a few cheeky northerlies thrown in within this pattern, as the GFS gives us an example of-

we might just be pleasantly surprised.....

Edited December 12, 2012 by bobbydog

[Snowman.]

Really think that are main cold will happen in January as the next 10 days or so are really going to be the z***l steam train which is unfortunate plus MJO phases aren't really in are favour at all going to some time for that to change not writing of Winter just the Next 10 days until we start to see some change in the models.

I will leave you with this pretty picture.

[Matty M]

Really think that are main cold will happen in January as the next 10 days or so are really going to be the z***l steam train which is unfortunate plus MJO phases aren't really in are favour at all going to some time for that to change not writing of Winter just the Next 10 days until we start to see some change in the models.

I will leave you with this pretty picture.

Way to kick us when we are down with that infamous ECM!!

[Snowman.]

Way to kick us when we are down with that infamous ECM!!

[IDO]

GavinPartridge

Brazilian midel also suggests zonal for Dec-Feb; http://t.co/PympjSUa

12/12/2012 10:54

GavinPartridge

UK Met Office seasonal model suggests a zonal set up is likely for Jan-Mar. #Mild http://t.co/23xbF27v

12/12/2012 10:47

The ECM also suggests Azores High with zonal to our north.

Not calling it yet but I think this Winter is not looking optimistic from a trend point of view.

[Gavin Hannah]

Really think that are main cold will happen in January as the next 10 days or so are really going to be the z***l steam train which is unfortunate plus MJO phases aren't really in are favour at all going to some time for that to change not writing of Winter just the Next 10 days until we start to see some change in the models.

I will leave you with this pretty picture.

This is what the Netweather forecast is hinting at for mid January. Would be lovely to see this develop by the end of the weekend however.

[latitude]

Really think that are main cold will happen in January as the next 10 days or so are really going to be the z***l steam train which is unfortunate plus MJO phases aren't really in are favour at all going to some time for that to change not writing of Winter just the Next 10 days until we start to see some change in the models.

I will leave you with this pretty picture.

How can anyone say the real cold will be in Januray? The last two weeks 'should' of been pretty cold with snow, all the signals were there, blocking etc etc. Now look where we are. With that massive high pressure over Scandi and no height rises to Greenland showing, we are in for LP after LP bumping into the block out east and giving us mildish muck. A true Greeland high will give us what some of us want, that Scandi High could be a problem.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

How can anyone say the real cold will be in Januray? The last two weeks 'should' of been pretty cold with snow, all the signals were there, blocking etc etc. Now look where we are. With that massive high pressure over Scandi and no height rises to Greenland showing, we are in for LP after LP bumping into the block out east and giving us mildish muck. A true Greeland high will give us what some of us want, that Scandi High could be a problem.

Not ALL......the planetary magnetic field and solar/lunar affect point to end Jan into Feb with Dec being up and down with coldest period likely12-18........now isn't that a thing. Plenty/indeed 84% of winter left and by the looks of it plenty of weather to be had too.

BFTP

[latitude]

Not ALL......the planetary magnetic field and solar/lunar affect point to end Jan into Feb with Dec being up and down with coldest period likely12-18........now isn't that a thing. Plenty/indeed 84% of winter left and by the looks of it plenty of weather to be had too.

BFTP

Sorry, forgot about the planetary magnetic field and solar/lunar, always forget about that one

Edited December 12, 2012 by latitude

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Sorry, forgot about the planetary magnetic field and solar/lunar, always forget about that one

Yep and his LRF is one of the only ones holding up at present......the models and others are so so good aren't they? Clearly you did, otherwise you wouldn't be so upset over the failed beast and what is really ONLY weather

BFTP

Edited December 12, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[snowbob]

Could these next ten days or so

Not be what gp was alluding to

As a false dawn by models

Just a thought

Edited December 12, 2012 by snowbob

[Chris K]

This is why I'm more optimistic if the long range forecasts during autumn are going for mild because it will then flip to the reverse like its doing now.

Oh but of course, when it forecasts mild it will be right hahaha.

Seriously though, I don't see how people can write off winter 12 days in (if you go from the 1st Dec that is!). Its difficult enough forecasting and modelling what will happen a week away. One small change can change everything...think chaos theory and the butterfly effect...

I'll continue to take the weather as it comes and treat any snowy weather as a bonus. Walking to the bus this morning at 6.30am in -5c temps and everything white from frost is winter in my books.

Edited December 12, 2012 by Chris K

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Could these next ten days or so

Not be what gp was alluding to

As a false dawn by models

Just a thought

Was the false dawn relating to the Atlantic dominating? or the BFTE?

BFTP

[snowbob]

Was the false dawn relating to the Atlantic dominating? or the BFTE?

BFTP

good point

But hopefully it was related to the Atlantic dominating the models ever since

That ecm

Edited December 12, 2012 by snowbob

[NorthernRab]

The trajectory of the Atlantic low at the end of the week is fairly unclear, so I wouldn't worry about any Azores High for at least another few days. I would bet money that it won't happen anyway.

[Ian Brown]

Yep and his LRF is one of the only ones holding up at present......the models and others are so so good aren't they? Clearly you did, otherwise you wouldn't be so upset over the failed beast and what is really ONLY weather

BFTP

Fred, anybody who regularly issues LRFs is going to be wrong at some point and Roger and yourself also fall into this category.

I’ve been pointing out that the failed easterly episode at least occurred very early in the winter and there is plenty of time..however the other side of that is like saying well it’s OK about these missed chances, we will score in the second half. We know that things don’t always work out like that. At least the December CET is running below average – an above average Dec CET has invariably boded very badly for cold in Jan/Feb over the last 25 years.

Back to the 06z, not sure of it’s evolution in the mid-range that puts us on the cold side of the PFJ for a time. Later on it gets worse and another run that brings the PV back with a vengeance, admittedly this is deep FI and it may just be the model bias to default to zonality at the back end, but if anyone thinks the charts are poor today, then let me tell you the set-up shown at day 15 or so is much much worse.

[nick sussex]

Morning all

Pretty uninspiring model outputs this morning, the GFS 00hrs though takes star billing for horror run of the season so far.

The GFS 06hrs pulls back from that precipice but still looks very unappealing in the higher resolution. The Azores high orientated like that is something you certainly don't want to see and if it links up with pressure rises to the east with jet going over the top then its curtains for cold before Xmas.

The ECM isn't that great but does send more energy se later with a bit of interest at 240hrs but really even that is hardly worth highlighting but really is the best of a very sorry looking bunch of operational outputs this morning.

The ensembles show a bit more interest which wouldn't be hard!

The ECM ensemble spreads at least continue to show a cluster of solutions that send energy a bit further south:

Which lead onto this:

So a little support there for low pressure anchored to the west and sw, lower heights over the northern Med and higher pressure to the nw.

I think we're reaching a crunch point in terms of seeing anything festive like in terms of weather on the run upto and over Xmas.

You really have to start to see more energy going se around 168hrs.

My optimism rating now stands at 5.25/10 down 0.25 from last night!

It would have sunk lower but I'm waiting for tonights outputs before going into emergency overdrive!

We'll see if we can get that bit more energy heading towards Iberia.

[EML Network]

This particular run pretty much sums it up for the next 7 days at least.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

One could say it's gonna be average for the next 15 days LOL

[warrenb]

Exactly, nothing Dire or shocking just average

[Snowman.]

How can anyone say the real cold will be in Januray? The last two weeks 'should' of been pretty cold with snow, all the signals were there, blocking etc etc. Now look where we are. With that massive high pressure over Scandi and no height rises to Greenland showing, we are in for LP after LP bumping into the block out east and giving us mildish muck. A true Greeland high will give us what some of us want, that Scandi High could be a problem.

Their is more signals for January than December in November many models pointed towards a Zonal December 11 days in its still below average.

[Adam lufc]

I know about weather in much detail but I can't get my head around what has gone so terribly wrong with the models...??? Why does this seem to always happen with us? It can't just be the Atlantic. Could anyone help to explain. It's extremely frustrating to see the models waste/ruin half the season.