Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 12th Dec

[JP1972]

Thanks a lot for the reply OMM.

Interestingly (or not as the case may be) there is no mention of note in the In Depth Thread of what the models are suddenly showing.

Another false dawn or a case of more runs needed no doubt ...

[AWD]

Control run does trend colder as per the ECM Op, just a bit later;

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

An outside chance, but a little more support than this mornings.

[Weathizard]

18z will probably throw another spanner in the works and kill the good vibes around here! Please don't GFS I'm not sure I can take another prozac attack!

[Matty M]

Long Range ECM EPS is much much better than this morning.

Lots of scatter there indicating much uncertainty.

It may not look good to most, but if you you had seen this mornings! Miles better

[phil nw.]

Thanks a lot for the reply OMM.

Interestingly (or not as the case may be) there is no mention of note in the In Depth Thread of what the models are suddenly showing.

Another false dawn or a case of more runs needed no doubt ...

Yes it`s more runs needed JP.

I think we are waiting to see which way the Atlantic troughing develops around T120-144hrs.

As ever a little adjustment of the whole pattern west would help -along with the undercutting of course.

At least we are in somewhat better shape than yesterday wrt to a slower Atlantic pattern.

[Geordiesnow]

I don't think what the models are showing are anything near being a farce. Its just doing what it normally does and that is showing different soloutions in the longer term. The trends I see at the moment is continued block to our East with the Atlantic perhaps slightly slowing down at the same time. I just hope people don't get all hung up on some easterly appearing at 200 hours though but hopefully we can get some sort of trend of the Atlantic starting to stall again though.

Looks like to me the PV will be quite strong across the Arctic, as it has been said, as cold lovers, let hope it does not end up in Greenland!

[Matty M]

Comparison

12z left / 0z right

[JP1972]

Yes it`s more runs needed JP.

I think we are waiting to see which way the Atlantic troughing develops around T120-144hrs.

As ever a little adjustment of the whole pattern west would help -along with the undercutting of course.

At least we are in somewhat better shape than yesterday wrt to a slower Atlantic pattern.

Well I think I'll check back in tomorrow lunchtime and see what will accompany my Ham and Mustard rolls!

Here's hoping the seeds have been sown, and of course those seeds thrive and prosper.

One thing that sticks in my mind though is that if the models can suddenly "lose" an Easterly, then I'm sure a very different pattern can emerge at similar short notice.

[Isolated Frost]

Difference between the EC Op 168 and the EC ENS 168- less flat low around newfoundland, and accordingly, more of a link up of atlantic heights- low digs SE rather than being static

[Zenarcher]

For anyone interested in the wet and windy weather tomorrow I've made a post about it here

As for what the models are currently showing I've checked all their runs from the previous days still seeing small upgrades in the reliable time frame like high pressure systems being upgraded and lows being downgraded just time will tell as we get closer.

[Gavin Hannah]

GFS pushing everything further back by 3 hours tonight. Plus a strengthening of the Russian High. Milder air becoming ever briefer.

Edited December 13, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Paul T]

There was a key chart that was used to dispel the previous Easterly. ('Bobby' posted it)

When all models pointed to a fantastic Easterly, the chart below said otherwise: The NAEFS progged low pressure anomalies to the south west of the UK. This was proved to be correct.

This is the current chart for 240hrs. its showing low pressure anomalies to the west of Ireland. Not particularly great for cold lovers at the moment, but lets keep an eye on this one given its recent performance.

[Gavin Hannah]

The LP is breaking down into smaller shortwaves. By t.66, there are 4 individual cells, one of which is really tiny and gets reabsorbed, then reappears lol.

Edited December 13, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes it`s more runs needed JP.

As ever a little adjustment of the whole pattern west would help -along with the undercutting of course.

Hi phill

theres one thing that i have noticed over the last few days of model watching is that the lows have tended to track more of a SE shift than was progged to go barraging through the BI,the block to the east,and some hights to the north have done enough as far as i can see,and i feel there will be more of this to come,the point that OMM was stating earlier regarding that second trough out of the e'n seaboard,that's what we should be looking at as to amplify a ridge into greenland,that would open the door to the siberian flood gates

Si

[bluearmy]

There was a key chart that was used to dispel the previous Easterly. ('Bobby' posted it)

When all models pointed to a fantastic Easterly, the chart below said otherwise: The NAEFS progged low pressure anomalies to the south west of the UK. This was proved to be correct.

This is the current chart for 240hrs. its showing low pressure anomalies to the west of Ireland. Not particularly great for cold lovers at the moment, but lets keep an eye on this one given its recent performance.

the difference being that last weeks chart was when things changed for the worse from a cold perpective. this evening, we have hints of a solution that might give us a cold snap. its the beginning of a change so naefs will be playing catch up. naefs rarely changes quickly but the past few weeks have seen it more wrong than i can recall for a long time.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012121318/gfsnh-0-108.png?18

Im mildly excited by that chart

S

[Allseasons-Si]

I seem to recall that someone(cannot remember who it was)was saying look west for our weather,now at t+90 there is more amplification off the eatern seaboard than the 12z,now i don't know if it was about this scenario but keep your eye on it

Si

[Matty M]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-108.png?18

Im mildly excited by that chart

S

WAA shooting up over us. It will be mild for us at that time too, maybe not a few days after though..........

[Paul T]

the difference being that last weeks chart was when things changed for the worse from a cold perpective. this evening, we have hints of a solution that might give us a cold snap. its the beginning of a change so naefs will be playing catch up. naefs rarely changes quickly but the past few weeks have seen it more wrong than i can recall for a long time.

Appreciate what your saying, but that chart was 12hrs after 'That ECM'; therefore, if the models were then only just starting to change for the worse, you could argue the NAEFS was ahead of the game, as the models came into line with it!

All models have performed hugely bad in the last 2 weeks, so to single NAEFS may be a little harsh.

There is always an attitude to try to undermine and disprove a model when it goes for mild; I am just pointing out what i feel is a clear as day fact that this model was correct in a similar Easterly scenario last week.

[Matty M]

Nice straight isobars, we like straight isobars

[The Eagle]

Slightly further west on this run. Gonna be close in FI!

Edited December 13, 2012 by The Eagle

[Paul T]

The low that leads the undercutting is no where near as mature or developed @ 120hrs, more of a messy shortwave. How will this impact? delaying of Easterly, or no easterly at all?

[Allseasons-Si]

Look at that low deflate and undercut out of the e/seaboard at +117

don't know if that is a good thing though.

Si

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Has someone built a brick wall across our little Island? Looks to me like that low has screamed to a hold, never seen such a vertical line before.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

[TEITS]

GFS still has the LP further E than the ECM but the block to our E is further W and so is the LP compared to the 12Z GFS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png