Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12

[chris55]

This easterly based chunk of the PV and Greenland High scenario has popped up as a theme relatively quickly!! I don't remember seeing this kind of pattern being forecast in the far reaches of FI!

Edited December 19, 2012 by chris55

[Lakes Tom]

UkMO 12z and GEM 0Z looking extremely similar for Christmas day 12pm. The GEM Oz evolves into a significant northerly flow.......

[nick sussex]

That wretched Russian high looks like it hasn't annoyed us enough and wants to rebuild west at 168hrs!

[EML Network]

I don't think the ECM Wants to play ball, it's taking that LP North East and not SE like the control GFS does ,might be a good ECM post +192 though ...we'll soon see

[chris55]

Everything further east on the 12z, decent trend!

[cooling climate]

Exciting times I think as we head towards the end of the year and then

on into the new year.Strat charts suggesting heights to the northwest

move east over Greenland and the GIN area in the extended range. Hopefully

over the coming days we will start see some much colder charts for the UK

with blocking to the north. I for one feel very confident towards this type

of solution.

[chris55]

Exciting times I think as we head towards the end of the year and then

on into the new year.Strat charts suggesting heights to the northwest

move east over Greenland and the GIN area in the extended range. Hopefully

over the coming days we will start see some much colder charts for the UK

with blocking to the north. I for one feel very confident towards this type

of solution.

Plenty to chat about this winter so far, but little action on the ground, so to speak, lets hope we can actually pull something out of the hat as we move forward!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Worth mentioning that an absence of heights to the south is also in keeping with the MJO phase - therefore, would be surprised to see these become a significant problem.

Edit: And ECM T+120 has lower heights to our south and the trough is pushed further east to reinforce this.

Hi Chiono, it's not necessarily the more immediate time frames I'm concerned with. It's the persistence of the GFS towards FI to promote these heights to the south that is concerning me.

You can see the progression on the ECM between 144 and 192 hours with the high being pushed east into Spain

We'd be in a stronger position IMO with these heights toned down.

EDIT: 216 hrs...

Edited December 19, 2012 by CreweCold

[Harsh Climate]

Look at all that WAA about to run up the eastern seaboard of america into the western side of our greeny high, It would be only a matter of time before it inflates and gives us a northerly or north easterly flow!

[lesta_snow]

Hi i've been trying to follow lol! so is it not looking like its going to be mild on christmas day now?

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm not sure I totally understand the criticisms of the forecast setup tonight if I'm honest. Considering the kind of charts in FI we were looking at a few days ago, of endless SW-NE tracking lows with only occasional cooler interlude and certainly a blowtorch Christmas, this looks perfectly fine:

Nothing staggeringly impressive and obviously it would be significantly colder if we could get the pattern backed further southeast (which very much remains an option) but we could've ended up in a far worse place than this.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Look at all that WAA about to run up the eastern seaboard of america into the western side of our greeny high, It would be only a matter of time before it inflates and gives us a northerly or north easterly flow!

That's an unlikely progression (in the immediate time frame) from this point IMO.

There is a large cold pool of air around the Greenland/Iceland area with attendant low heights. This, by now, has promoted the inflation of that HP to the south.

However, like TEITS says below, the whole set up may change over the next few days so we'll just have to keep monitoring the situation.

Edited December 19, 2012 by CreweCold

[TEITS]

Simple summary from me this evening.

Very little chance of snow prior to xmas. However a small chance we may see colder temps from the NW late xmas day but this may occur later around Boxing day/27th. Very difficult to predict what happens between 25th Dec - 31st because a shift W or E can mean the difference between a mild SW,ly or a cold NW/N,ly. Based on all the output I would say cool/cold but the colder temps more likely in N England/Scotland.

Bound to change over the next few days and whilst the output isn't amazing I have seen alot worse!

Respect to John Holmes because the above is what he said a few days ago when I disagreed with him. Fully admit to being wrong.

Edited December 19, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[lorenzo]

Please just go away you borefest of a Block.. !

[Jason M]

With the Iberian high in place there won't be any northerly post Christmas as demonstrated by the ECM 216 chart. The trough won't get far enough south so the best we could hope for would be a cool northwesterly. That's not to say it will work out that way come the time, but regardless of whether its the chicken or the egg, with heights over Spain and France there simply won't be any notable cold spell outside of northern Scotland.

People need only look at late jan and feb 2010 charts to illustrate this point.

One glimmer is that charts often trend systems east as the time approaches in our part of the world. Sod's law that won't happen here though when we need it.

As always this year, very close but a distinct lack of cigars looking at the output tonight.

Jason

[nick sussex]

Overall a disappointing run from the ECM with yet again the Azores high being pushed ne towards the UK.

There maybe some interest for northern areas but at this range shortwaves won't be picked up near Iceland which often scupper any cold heading south in this type of set up.

Low heights remain swathed running sw/ne in the mid Atlantic and with this the Azores high has nowhere to go but ne, overall a very underwhelming picture.

We can just hope theres some decent ensembles and the models show some mercy and go with one of those options.

[Chess01]

With the Iberian high in place there won't be any northerly post Christmas as demonstrated by the ECM 216 chart. The trough won't get far enough south so the best we could hope for would be a cool northwesterly. That's not to say it will work out that way come the time, but regardless of whether its the chicken or the egg, with heights over Spain and France there simply won't be any notable cold spell outside of northern Scotland.

People need only look at late jan and feb 2010 charts to illustrate this point.

One glimmer is that charts often trend systems east as the time approaches in our part of the world. Sod's law that won't happen here though when we need it.

As always this year, very close but a distinct lack of cigars looking at the output tonight.

Jason

one question why are you taking 216hours to heart

[Jason M]

one question why are you taking 216hours to heart

A fair question, but this option has significant support elsewhere. The GFS ensembles for instance have been churning these sorts of charts out for days. It may not happen (as I made clear), but its a clear trend at this point and cannot simply be wished away because its not what we want. It's also a fairly common pattern in our part of the world.

For what it's worth (not much tbh :-)), my own view is that we're looking at a poor winter for cold weather, although even in poor winters most places will get a decent fall of the white stuff at some point (probably end jan early feb).

Jason

[chris55]

The Iberian high and the Greenland high are both just forecasts at 144+, maybe one will be stronger or weaker than suggested, who knows? but as we have learnt over the past few weeks (and years) it's way to far out to be making any firm calls.

[phil nw.]

Yes the ECM again showing those heights over the Canadian side as we go through the run.

A better jet angle with a tendency to dig the UK trough deeper into Europe.

http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?19-0

It looks colder later on as lower uppers spread into Scotland as the jet eases further south.

http://www.meteociel...H0-168.GIF?19-0

Overall the 12z`s show an Atlantic driven pattern with lots of rain through the next week with temps.not far from normal but trending a little colder later.

It does seem we are going to experience this unsettled period until the promise of possible height rises further north west can move this way and we can get on the colder side of the current Atlantic trough.

[Cheshire Freeze]

A fair question, but this option has significant support elsewhere. The GFS ensembles for instance have been churning these sorts of charts out for days. It may not happen (as I made clear), but its a clear trend at this point and cannot simply be wished away because its not what we want. It's also a fairly common pattern in our part of the world.

For what it's worth (not much tbh :-)), my own view is that we're looking at a poor winter for cold weather, although even in poor winters most places will get a decent fall of the white stuff at some point (probably end jan early feb).

Jason

Exactly....I don't think it helps that it's a pattern supported by the seasonal models.....HP to south and LP to the north. Let's hope the potential SSW changes the picture somewhat.

[Ian Brown]

Overall a disappointing run from the ECM with yet again the Azores high being pushed ne towards the UK.

There maybe some interest for northern areas but at this range shortwaves won't be picked up near Iceland which often scupper any cold heading south in this type of set up.

Low heights remain swathed running sw/ne in the mid Atlantic and with this the Azores high has nowhere to go but ne, overall a very underwhelming picture.

We can just hope theres some decent ensembles and the models show some mercy and go with one of those options.

Yes, ironic how after all the chopping and changing and inconsistency in the NWP, we can now have reasonable confidence in where we are likely to be by days 8-10. And it's not a good place if your looking for cold.

[chris55]

Yes, ironic how after all the chopping and changing and inconsistency in the NWP, we can now have reasonable confidence in where we are likely to be by days 8-10. And it's not a good place if your looking for cold.

That comment can only be validated in 8-10 days time though!!!

Also to add, I think the GFS ensembles are not reasonably confident of anything at day 8-10

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Edited December 19, 2012 by chris55

[SMU]

Very poor outlook tonight from the models.

And no sign of anything sustantial in the way of cold and possible snow other than the odd transient affair for the north.

ive reduced my posts daily as I feel that as well as their being no signs of cold some are clinging on to the ensemble means from the NAEFS

that they clung onto last cycle.

a west based NAO is developing with blocking over canada, the axis of the high is WAY wrong for the uk.

To far North and to west with the CAA struggling to get south of iceland.

This pattern is MILD for the Uk because the teleconnection pattern is low pressure south of iceland and high pressure close to the SW of the uk.

We are nearly the point where the models can well and truly finish December off mild and miserable and with the CET leaping up towards above normal values.

I think we are pinning all hopes on a major warming event in the stratosphere delivering the blocking that it has the potential to do for the UK, if not I would revise my comments in the jan discussion of the in depth thread.

A ten degree mild xmas here and no sign of cold till jan unless the NAO can swing east, which is unlikley

s

[chris55]

Exactly....I don't think it helps that it's a pattern supported by the seasonal models.....HP to south and LP to the north. Let's hope the potential SSW changes the picture somewhat.

Seasonal models are pretty useless and experimental. They mean little IMO.