Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13

[UV-RAY]

Solar Max within a maximum that is overall low was my understanding if that makes sense CH.

I think it's at it's lowest for three years now, hopefully we've surpassed Solar Max and the trend will be one of even more diminishing sunspot numbers.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well watching breakfast news and forecaster shows temps dipping sharply come Thurs and also said 'it looks like being the sign of things to come as we head through rest of January'

BFTP

[from russia with love]

roll on the gfs 6z!!!

[Summer Sun]

Good runs...ones that keep the hopes up high and raise the expectations a little...the potential definitely remains.

One observation regarding the GFS... a good run in terms of potential...but if we were looking at it to verify, there might be a suspicion that the infamous Abingdon snow shield had got itself a little empire in the southern UK!

Deep in FI this precipitation chart is awesome...rain but very very close to a huge dumping and perhaps indicative of the kind of battleground scenarios what could develop in the projected set-up...

As was the case in the last cold spell the south west is shown to hang on to the milder air meaning that falls as rain where as further north it all falls as snow

Edited January 5, 2013 by Gavin.

[nick sussex]

Calling Nick Sussex,

Newby here but even I can see all the potential building up on the models this morning, this really is a great forum and so addictive that I have to keep coming back on here to have a read..

Anyway back to my question and I know that nick seems to be the expert on this subject but is it possible we could get (dare I say it) a short wave develope like before and spoil everything or do you think we are in a much more stronger position this time round? Thanks.

PS-

Keep up the good work everyone on here especially , Glacia point, Eye in the sky, Steve Merr, Ian Ferguson , Nick Sussex , John Holmes and everyone El's .. You all give this forum/ thread a great place to be in.

Sorry if my post is not model related, I will now go back into to background and carry on reading this thread.

I'm not the expert on shortwaves but probably suffer from an obsessive disorder with them ! lol

I think this easterly then transitioning into a ne/n has a much better chance because of the background strat warming, in a sense the momentum is with you because of the reversal of zonal winds above 60N.

Many of the easterly implosions we've seen in the past have not been modelled with a background SSW, so although there are no certainties with the weather there is certainly a good chance.

I think initially its whether we can see enough energy digging se under the building ridge to help pull the coldest air west to you guys in the UK.

So an easterly type outcome I'd put at 80%, the matter of deep cold uppers and any convective snow potential is still much more uncertain.

After that the pattern may retrogress so we'll just have to sit tight and hope for the best.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Agreed. This is all off topic now... but my little inserts last night were just to suggest that if GP is right about December then a solar boost of activity, expecially at time of max, could still be a factor. Thankfully at present the sun is steady.

the current suspot cycle is lower than cycle 5 [sO VERY LOW] and is definitley having an affect on the climate. Any burst will likely affect the jetstream and the signs are of it splitting and energy shifting south.

BFTP

Edited January 5, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[UV-RAY]

As was the case in the last cold spell the south west is shown to hang on to the milder air meaning that falls as rain where as further north it all falls as snow

All conjecture at this moment in time, but that as the looks of a classic 79 winter setup. We saw copious amounts of snow from such a set up.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As was the case in the last cold spell the south west is shown to hang on to the milder air meaning that falls as rain where as further north it all falls as snow

Interesting. Dates I've mentioned 8-10 for northern blocking to be showing/setting up. 16-22 attack from SW against the block, winter period of note. Last week of Jan Greenland block to strengthen and some serious low temps. Thats how I've seen it and models are really clicking into this.BFTP

[Frosty.]

Nothing noteworthy with that example frosty, all I see there are average temps........

It's the trend i'm happy with, we have cross model agreement for a relatively colder spell starting from the middle of next week, colder with frosts becoming widespread and temps really starting to struggle. The current mild spell will be fading out by tuesday night. The Gfs 00z shows a major cold outbreak for the north but the models are only in the early stages of building a picture of the mid/late month period and I think we are going to see some epic wintry charts popping up in FI and then advancing closer.

Edited January 5, 2013 by Frosty039

[The Beast From The East]

Calling Nick Sussex,

Newby here but even I can see all the potential building up on the models this morning, this really is a great forum and so addictive that I have to keep coming back on here to have a read..

Anyway back to my question and I know that nick seems to be the expert on this subject but is it possible we could get (dare I say it) a short wave develope like before and spoil everything or do you think we are in a much more stronger position this time round? Thanks.

PS-

Keep up the good work everyone on here especially , Glacia point, Eye in the sky, Steve Merr, Ian Ferguson , Nick Sussex , John Holmes and everyone El's .. You all give this forum/ thread a great place to be in.

Sorry if my post is not model related, I will now go back into to background and carry on reading this thread.

What I would say to start with SX, is that there is no clear synoptic development going forward from day 5/6. It is not a question at the moment of shortwave spoliers because we don't know if or where the High pressure will develop.

What we do see this morning is the jet being pulled back West as High pressure tries to build in the vicinity of the UK. As more runs come out we want to see the jet energy going South under emerging High pressure. However to get the cold uppers we need a high latitude block, which is shown as possible on some of the GFS and presumably ECM ensemble members, these will always be more difficult to achieve and model, and any shortwave development could be picked up nearer the time.

I'm not the expert on shortwaves but probably suffer from an obsessive disorder with them ! lol

I think this easterly then transitioning into a ne/n has a much better chance because of the background strat warming, in a sense the momentum is with you because of the reversal of zonal winds above 60N.

Many of the easterly implosions we've seen in the past have not been modelled with a background SSW, so although there are no certainties with the weather there is certainly a good chance.

I think initially its whether we can see enough energy digging se under the building ridge to help pull the coldest air west to you guys in the UK.

So an easterly type outcome I'd put at 80%, the matter of deep cold uppers and any convective snow potential is still much more uncertain.

After that the pattern may retrogress so we'll just have to sit tight and hope for the best.

Thankyou both so much for taking the time to get back to my Question. :) Keep up the good work.

[chris55]

ECM ens, temps reducing with snow risk increasing, det on the cold side.

[bluearmy]

The ens seem to be converging on the cold intensifying for next weekend and then easing a bit later in week 2. Is that just natural scatter or reflective of a mean attempted incursion from the south/southwest which will undoubtedly be successful on some members, raising the mean.

Naefs week 2 lifts the battelzone trough across the uk. Too far north? the auto cpc charts later will reveal how much tweaking fridays output had.

[TAFKAP]

I for one hope for cold with no snow. A long spell of sunny frosty weather will help dry us out a treat. Just what the doctor ordered!

[fergieweather]

As was the case in the last cold spell the south west is shown to hang on to the milder air meaning that falls as rain where as further north it all falls as snow

That sort of mesoscale, let alone regional, detail shouldn't be accepted at this range. When we get within t+24-48 we can understand where WBFL's will lie, etc.

[TEITS]

Something to consider is generally over the past few days the 06Z has been the most eastward bias of all GFS runs in the overall pattern. So in my opinion any correction W shown by the 06Z is a good omen.

[That ECM]

The ens seem to be converging on the cold intensifying for next weekend and then easing a bit later in week 2. Is that just natural scatter or reflective of a mean attempted incursion from the south/southwest which will undoubtedly be successful on some members, raising the mean.

Naefs week 2 lifts the battelzone trough across the uk. Too far north? the auto cpc charts later will reveal how much tweaking fridays output had.

With regards to your first paragraph. The scatter, I think, will impart be due to the different modelling of the high pressure over or near to us at the time range you talk. Much to be sorted before that tho.

[TEITS]

Not bad so far although if I was being picky I would like to see the trough in the Atlantic digging a little more further S.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

[Summer Sun]

The ensembles are showing lots of scatter this morning for mid month as you'd expect at this range

[Gavin Hannah]

While I welcome a return to more seasonal temps, having returned from a failed snowboard trip up north. (Cairngorm summit reached 13 degs last night), with regards to long range easterlies etc.... not holding my breath.

[Frosty.]

I for one hope for cold with no snow. A long spell of sunny frosty weather will help dry us out a treat. Just what the doctor ordered!

Here is the further outlook from the models, although the snow will come later, before then it looks colder and anticyclonic from midweek, the snowy synoptics should follow.

[Weathizard]

Big correction east and the high is very weak, looks like the ECM from yesterday morning!! (I think)

Who knows though, FI is very early at the moment.

[TEITS]

Just found my old drawing from Thursday. Looking at todays ECM I wasn't that far off from what its predicting now.

Back to the 06Z as its the same old story that we need LP to track underneath the HP and not NE. Lets see what happens in the next few frames!

[Jason M]

The big positive is that on each run pressure is declining to our south. Whilst the GFS looks messy, pressure declines even quicker on this run. That is very good news indeed IMHO. If we get rid of the heights over Iberia we will be in business at some point.

Jason

Edit illustrated by 150 chart where pressure is slightly higher and this has an adverse impact in the short term.

Edited January 5, 2013 by Jason M

[TAFKAP]

Here is the further outlook from the models, although the snow will come later, before then it looks colder and anticyclonic from midweek, the snowy synoptics should follow.

Sounds great. A week of sunny and frosty to dry and chill the ground followed by snow then more sunny and frosty. Rinse and repeat!!!

[Catacol]

Not quite right regarding steady, there is one sunspot with enough energy to unleash a massive solar flare that could have a potential impact, other than that yes very quite!

http://spaceweather.com/

Oh great... Yes - just checked Solarham and lo and behold their headline is "increase in solar activity." I am no expert, and the jury is out in terms of the science, but it would be better if we didnt have a solar uptick right now, just as we had in late November.