Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13

[karlos1983]

Hi, I've noticed that the Temp in Toronto ON, has been around -7 to -15 over the last couple of weeks, rapid warm up happening there, by Wednesday up to +3 and rain. Is this of importance? I'm sure I've heard a warm up in the East America has preceded cold on our shores in winters past.

Cheers

Karl

[SMU]

ONLINE!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010506/gfsnh-0-150.png?6

liking the 06z ( usual caveats ) massive cold pooling & energy moving ESE across the UK

S

[AWD]

ONLINE!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010506/gfsnh-0-150.png?6

liking the 06z ( usual caveats ) massive cold pooling & energy moving ESE across the UK

S

If you like the 06z then you'll love the 0z models.

[TEITS]

Big correction east and the high is very weak, looks like the ECM from yesterday morning!! (I think)

Who knows though, FI is very early at the moment.

Oddly enough this run has more potential than the 0Z and I reckon the +192/+240 charts will be much better than the 0Z. Could be wrong though!

Steve beat me to it. Glad to see you online mate.

Edited January 5, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[lord stratus]

Models are coming into agreement with the colder weather. As I previously mentioned 15th to 18th jan for the really interesting stuff. Snow events to arrive around those dates. Still various solutions will be thrown up in the models over the coming days but this is going only one way....

[Ice Day]

ONLINE!!

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-150.png?6

liking the 06z ( usual caveats ) massive cold pooling & energy moving ESE across the UK

S

Welcome back Steve; you can't keep a good man down! Now, let's have a stonking FI....just for fun of course!!

[nick sussex]

This is a better trend from the GFS 06hrs run than the earlier 00hrs, it does mean shortwave drama but you're more likely to tap into colder and snowier potential in terms of the following easterly.

The Azores high doesn't always have to be the winter foe, here it slows the Atlantic low by ridging north in response to more upstream amplitude from that troughing to the west.

Edited January 5, 2013 by nick sussex

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

06z looking good upto t156, nothing but a block to our N and NE to control us from there moving on to the NW. Looks more the route to me.

BFTP

Edited January 5, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[chionomaniac]

I think that the reinforcing of the block will be further west on this run which is no bad thing.

[AWD]

Not a bad GEM this morning either, with a decent ridge into Greenland in FI;

A relatively dry but chilly set of EC Reading Ens;

http://i49.tinypic.com/dbqzx3.gif

Edited January 5, 2013 by AWD

[Jason M]

At 168 looks like its all about to kick off.

Takes a while but the delay just gives us a better cold pool to tap.

Jason

[MKN]

Models are coming into agreement with the colder weather. As I previously mentioned 15th to 18th jan for the really interesting stuff. Snow events to arrive around those dates. Still various solutions will be thrown up in the models over the coming days but this is going only one way....

People seem to have forgot about the easterly that got to +108 then dissapeared start of December. All of you are talking about something that is 180+ hours away as if its +48. Imo mild for the next 5/7days with conditions after that no better than 50/50 of it being one way or another. I usually like to jump on the bandwagon with regards to following cold solutions but things aren't looking anything special.

[TEITS]

People seem to have forgot about the easterly that got to +108 then dissapeared start of December. All of you are talking about something that is 180+ hours away as if its +48. Imo mild for the next 5/7days with conditions after that no better than 50/50 of it being one way or another. I usually like to jump on the bandwagon with regards to following cold solutions but things aren't looking anything special.

Really don't know why some are harping on about Dec because what is now occuring in the Stratosphere is a different kettle of fish. We all realise what could go wrong and don't need telling every 5 mins.

[Jason H]

Impressive chart in terms of 500mb height anoms!

http://raleighwx.ame...htAnomalyNH.gif

M.

Been having a catchup with this thread and the best piece of news I could find was this.That is a seriously good looking if you're of a cold persuasions. Anomalies in all the right places

[weatherguy]

People seem to have forgot about the easterly that got to +108 then dissapeared start of December. All of you are talking about something that is 180+ hours away as if its +48. Imo mild for the next 5/7days with conditions after that no better than 50/50 of it being one way or another. I usually like to jump on the bandwagon with regards to following cold solutions but things aren't looking anything special.

I do agree with you at the current stage because it still is in FI, but I think the overall cold prospects are less risky due to the simple fact that we have retrogression of the high up to greenland shown on a consistent basis; a Scandi high open to an atlantic attack is certainly never set in stone.

(on the subject of which, I think we should declare war on shortwaves...they've been doing my head in for many a year!)

Edited January 5, 2013 by weatherguy

[nick sussex]

People seem to have forgot about the easterly that got to +108 then dissapeared start of December. All of you are talking about something that is 180+ hours away as if its +48. Imo mild for the next 5/7days with conditions after that no better than 50/50 of it being one way or another. I usually like to jump on the bandwagon with regards to following cold solutions but things aren't looking anything special.

That didn't have a SSW going on so an easterly is much more likely this time around. And given the weeks of dross dished out by the models if you don't think the current output is anything special then really best move to Canada because for the UK you ain't going to get much better cold potential.

[MKN]

Really don't know why some are harping on about Dec because what is now occuring in the Stratosphere is a different kettle of fish. We all realise what could go wrong and don't need telling every 5 mins.

I knew someone would mention the stratosphere. Warming there that's set to occur are still forecasted warmings. So if the forecast for that to happen is wrong then the implications to our weather towards a colder outlook may not happen. People always seem to think stratospheric warming and AO Nao and all the other teleconections GP talks about are guarenteed. They are still all forecasts. And as with the weather forecasts they don't always occur

[swfc]

Incredible synoptics at 240hrs!These runs over the last 48 hrs are granted not in the reliable timeframes but are coming thick and fast and are consistent in the amplification

[weatherguy]

I knew someone would mention the stratosphere. Warming there that's set to occur are still forecasted warmings. So if the forecast for that to happen is wrong then the implications to our weather towards a colder outlook may not happen. People always seem to think stratospheric warming and AO Nao and all the other teleconections GP talks about are guarenteed. They are still all forecasts. And as with the weather forecasts they don't always occur

Is the red line not what has already happened? Already underway.

[lord stratus]

SnowTornado slating my post just because I gave my view on the upcoming cold spell. Just because it didn't happen in December doesn't mean anything with the weather going forward.

My prediction of 15th to 18th jan have been posted previously and I choose to stick with this based on the model trending favourably.

I use other methods of course, being in my 50's adds experience as well, comparisons can be made to previous weather events so a more balanced view can be given.

[The Northern Ramper]

I knew someone would mention the stratosphere. Warming there that's set to occur are still forecasted warmings. So if the forecast for that to happen is wrong then the implications to our weather towards a colder outlook may not happen. People always seem to think stratospheric warming and AO Nao and all the other teleconections GP talks about are guarenteed. They are still all forecasts. And as with the weather forecasts they don't always occur

You mean warmings that are happening now? That is no longer a forecast.

[IDO]

Another near miss by the UK, v. cold uppers again skirt the SE:

As HP lingers close to the UK. Another option that is quite plausible due to further ridging in the West Atlantic. The latter heights get to Greenland and eventually we get the Northerly. Again the very cold uppers mainly to our east:

Great charts and with a little tweaking and we could get some real winter.

Edited January 5, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Weathizard]

FI, espically for me, is very decent, from 204 on wards under sub zero uppers! 324 looks very promising although GH rather than SH.

[nick sussex]

I knew someone would mention the stratosphere. Warming there that's set to occur are still forecasted warmings. So if the forecast for that to happen is wrong then the implications to our weather towards a colder outlook may not happen. People always seem to think stratospheric warming and AO Nao and all the other teleconections GP talks about are guarenteed. They are still all forecasts. And as with the weather forecasts they don't always occur

This is the reversal of zonal winds at T72hrs from last nights ECM:

A reversal at 10 hPa 60N, a major stratospheric warming which will verify.

The effects though are difficult to predict but perhaps the big changes in recent days suggest it will impact things quicker than previously thought.

Edited January 5, 2013 by nick sussex

[Jason H]

I knew someone would mention the stratosphere. Warming there that's set to occur are still forecasted warmings. So if the forecast for that to happen is wrong then the implications to our weather towards a colder outlook may not happen. People always seem to think stratospheric warming and AO Nao and all the other teleconections GP talks about are guarenteed. They are still all forecasts. And as with the weather forecasts they don't always occur

If you read through this thread or checked the Strat thread you'd see and know that the Strat Warming is under way. Completely different synoptics from December give us a better chance of a cold shot this time around, nothing guaranteed, What's your forecast for the next couple of weeks?