Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[Chris K]

Mods delte if this not allowed on here , just read this on WeatherOnline ... bit dizmal but i reckon it's a load of Oblox .

If you can call this remotely anything like 'winter'..... then during the short term period high pressure may be something more akin to it? Higher pressures across the UK will be in control of the pattern through to the middle period of January, the majority of the UK therefore seeing a noticeable alteration in the recent conditions, wet and cloudy weather, replaced with brighter but colder weather.

*... 21/1/13*

Frost and fog will become widespread and where this persists through daylight hours it'll remain cloudy and distinctly chilly, where it clears, rather pleasant, cold but bright mid-winter conditions will establish. There is the possibility of wintry showers developing almost anywhere especially coastal areas exposed to onshore winds, but primarily there'll be a good deal of dry if rather chilly weather on offer, this pattern expected to hold through to the mid- January period. There is evidence albeit tentative that high pressure may hold fast and the wintry weather continues into early February, however this is not substantial at this time and on that basis only the pattern has to be weighted towards a change taking place later this month.

*21/1/13 to 31/1/13*

Into the third week there are indications that the Atlantic westerly may attempt to kick in once more and bring a milder regime back into all areas, with rain and stronger winds establishing, high pressure retreating and allowing low pressure to take control of the pattern. This transition may be 'messy' and erratic but any wintry weather should be replaced by less cold but cloudier conditions.

An unsettled regime looks likely to persist into the latter stages of the month, the most disturbed conditions look set to affecting north-western and western Britain, a build of high pressure to the south should see southern and south-eastern areas of England drier and sunnier for the most part, temperatures here generally holding up.

*1/2/13 to 6/2/13*

Into the beginning of February the Atlantic and low pressure are looking as if they'll be continuing to remain in control, so the generally unsettled and mild-side regime the order of the day.

At the end of the day, its their forecast they've decided to go with and no one can say its wrong until its happened

What I would point out though, is there is much uncertainty in the models as most know, of which the past couple of days have shown. In my opinion, we really won't know the most likely outcome until we get cross model agreement across multiple runs.

The trend is there for colder weather though can't deny that...but how long it lasts and what weather we will end up with is a bit up in the air at this current time. Hopefully it will be more clear towards the end of this week as the models should start firming up on details. Once this happens...various forecasts published should start reflecting this.

Edited January 7, 2013 by Chris K

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Oh give it a rest. Who are you trying to kid. lol.

Just you

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Means little on its own but...erm....WOW (one perturbation in FI). Just thought I'd post a bit of weather porn.

Thats the most accurate chart yet for 21st

BFTP

[jethro]

Thats the most accurate chart yet for 21st

BFTP

Erm, it's the 7th today, how can you possibly say what's accurate for 2 weeks hence?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Erm, it's the 7th today, how can you possibly say what's accurate for 2 weeks hence?

I think he was being flippant

[jethro]

I think he was being flippant

I guess flippant is better than Mystic Meg, thought he'd bought himself a crystal ball.

[tonbridgemole]

Day 10 to 20 looking very cold

Edited January 7, 2013 by tonbridgemole

[mike Meehan]

Erm, it's the 7th today, how can you possibly say what's accurate for 2 weeks hence?

I dunno, I reckon that in a fortnight's time there is a good chance that the sunset will be later than what it is today, probably about 1630 hours in the London area

[syed2878]

reply to that w.online forecast. It's mor down to earth.

[Dave Kightley]

SO SO SO close on the GFS 00z for an epic snow event in the S.W so close.

[swfc]

Very messy and protracted between 102 -174 hrs before the slack easterly and lower temps arrive.to the far north less evidence of the arctic high.much better pressure rise from scan to and looking that bit much cleaner evolution

[Dave Kightley]

Dunno what to think of the run so far upto around 180h that low running down the west of the uk seems to having an affect on any Greenland high. See what happens

[Cheshire Freeze]

Dunno what to think of the run so far upto around 180h that low running down the west of the uk seems to having an affect on any Greenland high. See what happens

Got the makings of a stunner in FI this has.

[AWD]

Not a bad chart to end high res with;

Renewed surge of WAA towards Iceland. Cold air over the UK.

Anyway, just another possible scenario, I'm sure FI will dish out something strange. All i'm getting out of this currently is a headache!

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO looks broadly similar to the GFS too (wont post it as I'm on my mobile) with an easterly flow by +144. Encouraging output.

[Dave Kightley]

Got the makings of a stunner in FI this has.

A stunner is. worrying over nothing haha

[swfc]

biblical fi coming up but id put fi at 90hrs to be fair.Seem to remember doing this at the end of november!guess we never learn

[Dave Kightley]

That low in the West could get interesting for some parts if it stays on the model output. Something to watch?

[Wilxy]

well id bank the 00z FI run some serious cold coming in at very end of the run.

[alexisj9]

Anyone order an easterly lol, Once this run gets one it keeps it till the end.

[swfc]

That 384 is almost perfect and 1947esq would it give me my first snower shower this winter .All in all a better run but fi imo 90hrs plus.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS has blown a gasket in FI alternating between HP towards Greenland and Scandi. Can't ask for much better than that.

Need a lie down after today's trials and tribulations of model output.

Night guys

[LomondSnowstorm]

At the end of FI we'd be looking at a third easterly with utterly perfect synoptics and a cold pool we'd write songs about. Pointless speculating on that though of course, a tough spell of model watching to negotiate yet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

That 384 is almost perfect and 1947esq would it give me my first snower shower this winter .All in all a better run but fi imo 90hrs plus.

Haha it wouldn't be a case of a snow shower following that 384 chart, more likely a case of needing to be dug out by a JCB

[Jupiters Winter]

UKMO improvement. GFS still holding shape. (in Reliable) ECM op was on the mild side of the Ensembles. So fully expecting a excellent ECM this morning. Good atlantic behaviour generally with no hints of any spoilers from above the waters YET. Potentail increase this morning thus far.