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Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

Coast

By Coast
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Or in fact the GFS has picked up on a slightly milder trend, i await the 18z with big intrest, if it still goes with what the last 3 runs showed then u can't disgard it.

Yes but yesterday we had 4 runs of cold and snow.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

As said, 72-96 is when the foundations are laid so hopefully early to mid nxt week will be resolved soon. Don't expect post 120hrs to ever be resolved though... In this kind of situation it rarely is

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Cumulonimbus Tower Apprentice

Cumulonimbus Tower

Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
Posted

I kind of know where he is coming from. Things do seem a little finely balanced at times as it looks like the Atlantic wants to follow the second shortwave through about 96-120 and if this happened the block could be flattened and things could go wrong. This run seems closer to this scenario than either of the last three runs and the sense is that it has been getting nearer to this scenario for the last couple of runs. I'm not saying that this will happen but I am trying to give some measure to other points of view about where things 'may' go or could go wrong for coldies. Don't taze me dude!

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Not in the reliable BUT ecm át 192, is a sight of beauty....

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Yes but yesterday we had 4 runs of cold and snow.

So what u gunna say if the 18z is same as last gfs thats then 4 runs today of a different trend, im just being cautious because of the uncertainty between all the different models.

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weather_it_will Contributor

weather_it_will

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
Posted

Not bad http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif!! would like to see heights to our north a bit more robust!! Still its 168 so it will change quite radically by the 00z

In what way will it change and why? Nobody could possibly know that!

And don't just say because it is at 168.

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igloo Enthusiast

igloo

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
Posted (edited)

just had my first view today of the models and i have to say they are in a complete mess after only 4 days its 50/50 if we are to get anything cold after tuesday the GFS for instance has switched from a greenie to a bartlett HP what i dont understand is surley with this SSW we cant be getting another barltett

Edited by igloo
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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

Foundations are set 72-96 hrs on the ECM 12z.

Make of that what you will.

Stillgood to be cautious though. A backtrack on the GFS 18z towards the ECM and I think I'll do myself a favour and go bed early tonight!

Ok I'm probably being overly cautious, the ECM is going the right way again, very interested to see what the GFS will be modelling this evening. Like you say if good then I'll relax a little lol...

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garbagebags Enthusiast

garbagebags

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
Posted

just had my first view today of the models and i have to say they are in a complete mess after only 4 days its 50/50 if we are to get anything cold after tuesday the GFS for instance has switched from a greenie to a bartlett HP what i dont understand is surley with this SSW we cant be getting another barltett

I think you should have another look

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

If its snow you want, what the ECM has shown the last two runs is quite astounding totals would be in excess of 10 inches in certain parts I feel. Once we get the split flow over Greenland via the ridge going north its win win really so as long as the SW goes south/SE we are in the money. (snow) The high pressure is pretty feeble but this can be a good thing snow wise as it allows more moisture from the Atlantic.

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

well the ECM 12z is an absolute beauty from start to finish, lots of snow opportunities, very unlikely the ECM is wrong from here but still possible obviously but I would expect the GFS to come into line, albeit maybe slowly.

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

240

ECM1-240.GIF?09-0

ANOTHER channel low, with a reload of cold air INBOUND. Astonishingly good for cold and snow.

Edited by Weathizard
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BorrisB77 Newbie

BorrisB77

Posted
  • Location: 1mile north of Worcester City Centre
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,storms and sunshine!!!
  • Location: 1mile north of Worcester City Centre
Posted

I know it's +240 but if that chart comes off on ECM we will well and truly be a nation of igloos!!!

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Been on the phone whilst the ECM is coming out and when I saw the +120/+144 chart I had visions of Steve M dancing around his living room.

Have to say the only consistent output today has been the GEM/ECM and they both show a similar pattern with regards to the LP sinking SSE.

Just add how anyone thought a N,ly would develop on the +144 ECM is beyond me. Due to the LP sinking S an E,ly was always likely a +144 because remember in the N Hemisphere the flow is anti clockwise around a Low pressure

Crazy thing with the ECM is at +240 those two LP systems would phase together pulling in an even colder NE/E,ly flow on the next frame. Overall a simply stunning run.

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on the coast Enthusiast

on the coast

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
Posted

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?09-0

you wait 31 years for a channel low & 2 come along at once

S

Lol. And Joe B tweets the cold coming will be scary!!! Another good set of 12z runs in general.

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