Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yup, Shortwave moving away as heights build behind, looks good to me!

Fingers crossed we see the GFS drop it's current shortwave idea and move more favourably over to the ECM!

Not long till we find out. Looks more like the UKMO than the last GFS at +18 (which may actually be significant at this stage!)

[Met4Cast]

The shortwave to the South of Greenland is 5mb weaker on this run so far, not overally significant but could make a fair difference

[LomondSnowstorm]

The shape of the trough is better too, better chance of WAA in the right place:

[Met4Cast]

The shape of the trough is better too, better chance of WAA in the right place:

Less shortwave activity hanging around Greenland, looks a lot cleaner

[Cheshire Freeze]

Less shortwave activity hanging around Greenland, looks a lot cleaner

MILES better at 60 hrs

[Met4Cast]

Advection of cold air Westwards is slightly slower, looks like areas South of the M4 will be seeing mostly rain now, perhaps turning to snow later on in the day as the system clears.

Better heights up towards Greenland, heading in the right direction so far! Come on, this is intense

[LomondSnowstorm]

Surely now it has to drop?

[SNOWPLOUGH]

Advection of cold air Westwards is slightly slower, looks like areas South of the M4 will be seeing mostly rain now, perhaps turning to snow later on in the day as the system clears.

Better heights up towards Greenland, heading in the right direction so far! Come on, this is intense

Better for Ireland though at +72hrs with -8C 850's in already.

Dan

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's not dropping SE.....

[Snowy Liverpool]

Both the high pressure in the atlantic and the shortwave are further north. Which way will it go?

[Met4Cast]

This is taking far too long..

[SNOWPLOUGH]

Nope starting to go downhill now- despite better ridging into greenland early on it looks like the shortwave is heading straight east....

Dan

[Cheshire Freeze]

Nope starting to go downhill now- despite better ridging into greenland early on it looks like the shortwave is heading straight east....

Dan

Yep, this is a concern now

[Snowy Liverpool]

Looks like GFS is saying no again. That position at t90is unsaveable.

[Met4Cast]

Yeah, seems like another slight improvement short term around Greenland, but that SW just wont budge.. UKMO better not go the same way!

[rory o gorman]

shortwave again is going to topple it . damn

[The Eagle]

Disgraceful that at 90 hrs there is such disagreement between the models. It really is.

[SNOWPLOUGH]

Still strange that the shortwave dosent follow the direction of the majority of energy in the jet stream. Worrying though...surely the GFS isnt wrong so early??

Dan

[Met4Cast]

Still strange that the shortwave dosent follow the direction of the majority of energy in the jet stream. Worrying though...surely the GFS isnt wrong so early??

Dan

If the GFS is right then every other single model has this wrong..

[LomondSnowstorm]

If the GFS is right then every other single model has this wrong..

Again, upstream pattern is nothing like the NAM, if it was we could probably still get out with something like the UKMO.

[ICETAB]

Yeah, seems like another slight improvement short term around Greenland, but that SW just wont budge.. UKMO better not go the same way!

What time is the UKMO out?

[Met4Cast]

Again, upstream pattern is nothing like the NAM, if it was we could probably still get out with something like the UKMO.

I'm starting to get worried now - All eyes on the UKMO now I suppose, appalling model performances

What time is the UKMO out?

I'm not entirely sure, very soon

[Snowy Liverpool]

Again though, this run shows us nothing without the other 21 members. If Ens mean is down on the 18z I'm happy.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Snowy Liverpool

[The Eagle]

Worrying now that's 4 runs in a row consistent GFS

[Dave Kightley]

you would think it would drop hitting that block to our north... strange why it goes e