Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

[Met4Cast]

Being off work until the 20th now I find that I'm sleeping between model runs and waking up before them. That can't be healthy can it?

NOGAPS is a weird one, the low that other models build the high pressure around suddenly decides it wants to join in on the fun, obviously it does mean we can't completely dismiss the GFS now it has some support, albeit from a completely different evolution altogether

[Dave Kightley]

nocaps is that good its getting replaced. Trend setter v the ukmo be like Man utd losing to sprunehorpe.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM is going to make it at 138 (after looking a bit ropey earlier on in the run).....snowy for a few too....

GEM 192...

Edited January 10, 2013 by CreweCold

[SNOWPLOUGH]

GFS control looks almost identical to op run and the mean is better than both so far.

Dan

[rory o gorman]

poor control and mean on the gfs ens . worrying

[rory o gorman]

still a few descent members showing on a well spread gfs ens.

[joggs]

Too many peoples comments contradict eachother to what the models/charts actually show,must be an absolute nightmare for begginers. Please state your preferances and back up with proof etc. Gawd sake.Rant over

[MrSunshine]

NOGAPS is an old computer model and is being replaced soon, in my opinion ignore, GFS still out there on its own. Something leads me to believe that some people want the GFS to prevail.

[Weathizard]

GFS sticks to its guns then. Crucial EC coming up, have a bad feeling!! A sense of real dread has blanketed over me.

A real model knife edge drama!

[Adam lufc]

Please ecm it's my birthday!! Background signals and anomalies ........

[MrSunshine]

Please ecm it's my birthday!! Background signals and anomalies ........

Makes no sense what so ever.

[The PIT]

GFS leading the way again or took the lead and then got lost? So we're still with the 48hr brief bit of winter again.

[MrSunshine]

GFS leading the way again or took the lead and then got lost? So we're still with the 48hr brief bit of winter again.

I don't understand why people take the GFS as gospel, its one model for godsake, its still out on its own at the moment chill and relax!

[Radiating Dendrite]

We cannot chill and relax until we have model harmony.

We have seen the GFS be wrong in the past, but equally seen it be correct. Its ensembles are getting worse for cold also after this weekend.

I am at the point of thinking we may as well bin all models!

[mountain shadow]

Well the GEFS are split down the middle.

So no concensus in the GFS at a short time scale.

Edited January 10, 2013 by mountain shadow

[MKN]

Ecm should allow the low near Iceland to sink south as pressure over the UK is lower than the gfs.

Not keen on the +96 though. Will it won't it ??

Edited January 10, 2013 by SnowTornado

[IDO]

Changes in the crucial area ECM at T72.

[Orpingtoniceagedec10]

Anyone know what time the ECM comes out ?

[Jayces]

Looks like ECM is siding with the UKMO at 96.

[Supacell]

When is the ECM 00z out? IMO if that continues the cold and snow for next week then I believe the GFS will follow suit. If it turns and goes with GFS then I will become very doubtful of any lasting cold. Unfortunately GFS is one of the three big models and cannot just be ignored, but I do hope it is wrong this time. I want the ECM and UKMO to be correct, but we don't always get what we want do we?

Haha, ECM rolling out as I ask this question.... come on ECM!!!

Edited January 10, 2013 by Supacell

[onepingonly]

Morning all,

Hopefully my first post will be helpful:

NOAA have released a model discussion: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

The summary of it seems to be that their preference is toward UKMO and ECM rather than GFS.

I'll leave it to someone with more experience to work out any further significance but it should give some hope to the doubters.

[Liam J]

Is the ECM entertaining the idea of the GFS? Looks like the Atlantic could break through, next few frames are crucial.....

The colder uppers not making it as far west on this run either.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Liam J

[jimben]

Changes in the crucial area ECM at T72.

Which mean?

[aitchbomb]

NOGAPS 00Z carbon copy of GFS. Oh dear.

[IDO]

Shift east by ECM, heading towards GFS: