Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

[Brass_Monkeys]

Greenland High still forming, low pressure sliding S/E - looking better than the GFS to my untrained eye. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Jayces]

So at only 4 days we have zero concensus between the top three models.

You couldnt make it up. Shannon Entropy indeed.

Guess we need to wait another 12 hours.

The fact that there was much better agreement last night is a worry now that the ECM is doing something different.

If the UKMO tonight changes then it will just prove that we just don't know enough about the weather yet as it would seem to be going against al the background signals.

We won't know for sure until the weather happens of course.

[iowpompeylee]

It's going to be another strap yourselves in day today.i wanted the ECM to banish all hope for the GFS!but I think by tonight's pub run we will know yay...or nay

[IDO]

168 GFS

168 ECM

Very different

Yes the GFS shifts everything north so cooler setup ECM. However synoptically both have lost the easterly/northerly and that is the important trend. 192:

Edited January 10, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[snow drift]

It's going to be another strap yourselves in day today.i wanted the ECM to banish all hope for the GFS!but I think by tonight's pub run we will know yay...or nay

I wish I could agree with you but they are very different at a short time frame that one run isn't going to tell you everything. Couple that with all the uncertanty that there is. Just to illustrate. ECM at T192.

[Snowmad79]

168 GFS

168 ECM

Very different

The problem is, as the ECM output gets every so close to the immediate reliable it is being downgraded. For example for the 15th, yesterdays ECM had the Shortwave diving SE pretty sharpish putting us in a easterly flow. Todays 00z run slows this somewhat and we end up with a north westerly flow instead. As I posted earlier, it's downgrading the output at 96hr.

Have to admit, I'm preparing myself for worst... Just in case.

[AWD]

Obviously not as good as previous runs, but it isn't exactly dire either!

This at T192, well into FI, and we still have cold and snow over much of the country, Midlands northwards especially;

Basically we are all still has confused as the models. I certainly won't be attempting a forecast based on the 0z output for next week yet!

[Great Plum]

I think, looking at the differences that the buzz words 'Shannon entropy' again come into play here. The models are 'toying' with many ideas and post Tuesday, many options are in the table!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif could be an excellent chart for much of the country especially if the low tracked a little further south!

[iowpompeylee]

I wish I could agree with you but they are very different at a short time frame that one run isn't going to tell you everything. Couple that with all the uncertanty that there is. Just to illustrate. ECM at T192.

I agree mate.i think the models are finding it real tough regarding the SSW...interesting times ahead.im going for a cold and snowy outlook.on the info given in the last few days

[lord stratus]

Greenland High still forming, low pressure sliding S/E - looking better than the GFS to my untrained eye. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Not really. If either varify it will be straight back to mild, wet & windy.

[Great Plum]

ECM at 216 - just for fun:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Channel low anybody?

-5 air returns to the vast majority of the country.

[snow drift]

As the long term is very unclear it maybe worth concentrating on the short term. All 3 from T48 to T132 ish have some cold air over us. I would say short term is of much interest to many. With oppotunities for something wintry in many parts.

[snowking]

Another morning, another lot of very poor commentary in here.

NEITHER have shifted. They are both variations on their own theme. ECM less cold than yesterday's runs but still has the shortwave slide SE over the UK, and still has a lot of snow potential into next week, and had NOT shifted towards GFS. If it had shifted towards GFS we would not be having the Greenland height rises.

The GFS still refuses to eject it SE, so we wait for another set of runs!

UKMO different from its 12z output - still cold but yet another variation!

SK

Edited January 10, 2013 by snowking

[kev238]

Well slight disappointment in her this morning. Perhaps the best thing to do is to focus on the weekend potential for some snow, as next week is so up in the air that no one has a clue!

having said that, even those the models don't look as Stella as yesterday:

Ukmo- still shows an easterly

Gem- still excellent

ECM- high risk but cold still for central, northern and eastern parts

Can often be the case the higher the risk the higher the reward.

[Liam J]

Not really. If either varify it will be straight back to mild, wet & windy.

Wrong, if the ECM came off then it would likely turn out to be very snowy for some and bitterly cold! Especially from the Midlands northwards but not exclusively. Still way too much divergence to draw any conclusions.

[AWD]

Might as well post the BOM considering it could be just as useful as anything else currently;

Who wants to bank?

[cooling climate]

As the long term is very unclear it maybe worth concentrating on the short term. All 3 from T48 to T132 ish have some cold air over us. I would say short term is of much interest to many. With oppotunities for something wintry in many parts.

Quite agree very interesting few days coming up. Some areas could see

a fair bit of snow I would have thought.

As for the extended output stick with the Euro models.

[andy_leics22]

Hmmm, i personally think the output this morning is quite disheartening. The ECM is no where near as good as its 12z output yesterday and the GFS is a stinker.

The only positive i can really find this morning is that the UKMO still looks good. I expect the UKMO to backtrack towards the GFS and ECM on the 12z though.

[BorrisB77]

Morning all!! The fun (if you can call it that) continues this morning. So the UKMO holds steady with the cold theme as does the ECM in a fashion with slightly milder air trying to push in to the south west next Thursday before the return of colder air on friday ( still not as cold as it has been showing due to a push east of the real cold stuff).

GFS ( the pioneer of this cold theme) is still showing a fairly Atlantic driven theme as it has been over the last 4 runs or so and now has a little backer in the NOGAPS..

Personally I believe we have another 48 hrs worth of runs to finally decide which of the major 3 models has it so badly wrong ( please be GFS) so all is not lost as yet, keep calm and try not to do yourself any injuries..

[lord stratus]

I think, looking at the differences that the buzz words 'Shannon entropy' again come into play here. The models are 'toying' with many ideas and post Tuesday, many options are in the table!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif could be an excellent chart for much of the country especially if the low tracked a little further south!

To be honest the best thing to do now is watch to bbc forecasts in the coming days. Most people on this forum always wait for their confirmation of cold weather, weather warnings etc so I believe this is the way to know the longevity of the cold snap without wasting too much of your life on line

[Jason M]

No point in looking at charts beyond a 120 hours. We don't even have agreement at 72 this morning.

ECM and METO both want to build heights to our NW but go about it differently.

I recall someone on here posting that METO goes out to 72 hours at very high res but drops off sharply after that which explains why the METO 144 charts are often poor. Given though that key differences are occurring at 72 hours I'm going with METO the proviso that none of the models will be correct at 120 yet.

For good forms sake the ECM is not a poor run at all, neither to all the uppers just get swept away. There is a brief warm sector and essentially for all but the extreme south its a very snowy run out to 192. All complete rubbish at that range.

Some people need to learn to read charts!

Jason

[Duane S.]

Well that was torturous viewing. This forum, not the models.Some frankly ridiculous posts this morning.

ECM OK, a bit meh after yesterday's 00z but like I mentioned at the time it seemed all a bit too soon to me.It's heading the right way through the run and unlike the GFS, which is again completely out of kilter, it looks fine to me going forward.

UKMO good but it is lo res after +72 and often tends to' under complicate' things.

Another set of runs, another set of possibilities, all stil look very good to me.

[IDO]

Might as well post the BOM considering it could be just as useful as anything else currently;

Who wants to bank?

Thats what I was hoping ECM would maintain. See where the ECM ensembles are. Whatever happens there will be further chances of cold.

T240:

[lord stratus]

Wrong, if the ECM came off then it would likely turn out to be very snowy for some and bitterly cold! Especially from the Midlands northwards but not exclusively. Still way too much divergence to draw any conclusions.

Trust me. That would not be a snowy outlook, apart from higher ground. I expect it will look different later today though.

[Snowmad79]

Another morning, another lot of very poor commentary in here.

NEITHER have shifted. They are both variations on their own theme. ECM less cold than yesterday's runs but still has the shortwave slide SE over the UK, and still has a lot of snow potential into next week, and had NOT shifted towards GFS. If it had shifted towards GFS we would not be having the Greenland height rises.

The GFS still refuses to eject it SE, so we wait for another set of runs!

UKMO different from its 12z output - still cold but yet another variation!

SK

Of course they have shifted.. 72 - 96hr on the ECM has the Low going West to east across Iceland, 96hr to 120 and it barely sinks. Yesterday it dropped quickly SE. So the game is changed from an Easterly to a Northwesterly and a pattern that looks weaker and on a knife edge as they say. If the ECM output corrects again and keeps that Low to north (which looks even more plausible today) then it will go pear shaped. What happens after 96hr doesn't really matter atm.

The GFS refuses to eject it SE yes but this morning the ECM is showing a lot of reluctance in doing that also.