Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?

[Jayces]

ECM sticking to it's guns I believe, nothing like the GFS @ 120.

Need to wait until tonight i'm afraid :-(

[Weathizard]

Looks like ECM going with UKMO moving SW south, thank god.

Big shift west in uppers though, a little disappointing, still no agreement of SW track though but at least it still tracks S/SE?

Edited January 10, 2013 by Weathizard

[IDO]

Which mean?

It was tight to get the ECM scenario. Any changes were more likely to be downgrades, bearing in mind GFS.

[AWD]

I'm confused with you lot! :p

[mountain shadow]

So which is it?

Any chance of a chart rather than one liners?

Edited January 10, 2013 by mountain shadow

[Jayces]

i'll admit I don't have great knowledge but using the live compare on Meteociel between GFS 120, UKMO 120 and ECM 120 ECM is between the 2 but the shortwave appears to be heading south as per UKMO and not east as per GFS.

144 key for ECM.

[snowbob]

ECM looking like gfs

ECM looking like ukmo

Really some of you are bordering on ridiculous

[Dexter29]

On phone so can't access charts. Some of you say ECM siding with GFS at 96hrs others say UKMO. Which is it?

[jimben]

Nurse !! Nurse !! They are all out of their beds again.

[Snowmad79]

Ecm rolling out... The Shortwave is NOT going south east at 96Hr compared with the 00z 120 from yesterday (for the 14th). Massive northward adjustment of that low this morning. Heights have been downgraded somewhat to our north at t120.......... I'm very nervous!

I think we are about to witness a major downgrade.

Yesterdays 00z

Todays for the 14th

Edited January 10, 2013 by Snowmad79

[snow drift]

I am not surprised at the confusion. The ECM is not going to be to most peoples liking. Cold pushing East as Atlantic has more of an influence. Toys and pram for the next few pages. Good luck mods.

[Iceberg]

If you compare the t120 ec with the t120 gfs ens members at that time, then we get not a single Gens member which looks like it....

I.e nothing in the gfs matches the ECM..

However it's important to note that nothing in the gfs ens suite of members matches each other ever at t120 we have 20 different solutions from gfs...

[IDO]

Uk 120: GFS 120:

Nothing like each other!

Edited January 10, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[onepingonly]

+120 ECM is going it's own merry way, neither UKMO or GFS. Sadly it's not a good way.

[Ice Day]

Well the ECM at 120 is looking different to both GFS and UKMO. Cold is definitely moving further east so far, next frame is crucial

Edited January 10, 2013 by Ice Day

[jimben]

Will check back later when posters who understand weather charts are posting. Practically all of the last half a dozen pages are ridiculous. Please mods do something about it.

[Great Plum]

96 hours

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

120 hours

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Some significant differences at 120 hrs - UKMO pick of the bunch for cold, GFS is sinking and I'm unsure about the ECM to be honest!

[IDO]

144 GFS: 144 ECM:

[mountain shadow]

So at only 4 days we have zero concensus between the top three models.

You couldnt make it up. Shannon Entropy indeed.

[snow drift]

If you compare the t120 ec with the t120 gfs ens members at that time, then we get not a single Gens member which looks like it....

I.e nothing in the gfs matches the ECM..

However it's important to note that nothing in the gfs ens suite of members matches each other ever at t120 we have 20 different solutions from gfs...

Agreed but ECM moving towards GFS, more than the other way round. Don't get me wrong, I am in no way saying it a done deal but not what I wanted to see. ECM has more of a battle ground look which in turn would be good for some but not a country wide event.

[MKN]

144 is perfectly ok unless your south of a Line which stretches south east from NI to Kent.

[IDO]

ECM at 168: All the cold pushed east:

Slower than GFS but trending that way. May not end up as dire as GFS but its certainly going the wrong way.

Edited January 10, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Love it Jimben. I can't read the charts too well yet and would really like to learn from the experience of others, but how does a beginner differentiate between a well thought out post and those only seeing what they'd like to see? Perhaps more backup info from the one liners.

Seems like choosing a car to me. Most people think that their idea of the best car is right, but different people have different priorities.

[Weathizard]

Poor from the ECM. Nothing like the GFS though so we STILL don't have agreement on track of SW, if this goes SE straight away bingo, if not it just takes a way all our potential warm energy that goes North.

Although looking at the uppers at 168 could be good for the far far north. Disappointing morning you have to say really, but whilst we don't have agreement its pretty pointless even talking because all the models are very different at 120, GFS by far the worse, ECM second, UKMO best.

[Ice Day]

168 GFS

168 ECM

Very different