Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

[LincolnSnowstorm]

On a serious note, there has been major snow in the Middle East, is this a knock on effect of the ssw? That must be rare surely?

This is getting silly now! http://www.bbc.co.uk...e-east-20957161

http://www.reuters.c...=USRTR2YVCM#a=1 http://www.reuters.c...=USRTR3CAQJ#a=1

Reported as the worst snow storm in 20 years and we are still waiting on the ssw with effects peaking in late January.

December saw impressive amounts of snow 1st and second out of 47 years http://climate.rutge...i_set=1#eurasia expecting January to do better!

[Met4Cast]

Slight Westward correction by T48 on the 00z, good news!

[rory o gorman]

better amplification already on this run with regards heights around Greenland here hoping .

[Snowy Liverpool]

That T just to the northeast of the shortwave is weaker, plus it's surrounded by very small high pressures at t54. I would hope that would lead to the T disintegrating and high pressure building above the shortwave.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Snowy Liverpool

[Dave Kightley]

huge warmer sector nonetheless. pass

[Wilxy]

No no no.......it's going east again

Its starting to sink.

[rory o gorman]

better heights cutting in around the back , hopefully this low is cut off soon

Edited January 11, 2013 by rory o gorman

[LomondSnowstorm]

Slightly further east gives a bigger warm sector on this run which hopefully is adjusted westwards on subsequent runs. Basic pattern is fine though.

[Snowy Liverpool]

Interesting turn of events at t90. This might just happen...

[Snowy Liverpool]

UKMO at t96 is similar to 18z GFS, though slightly further west. All lows around the UK rapidly weakening.

[Met4Cast]

Aaannnddd we're safe

Cold air backing Westwards again! Overall pattern seems fine, small changes in upper air temperatures etc.. but thats normal, no major pattern ruining changes. Game on

[Dave Kightley]

What is wrong with you people its a good run thus far, I don't know what your all crying about if I;m being honest.

good run however we want snow not a warm sector.we want further west that is all

[Cheshire Freeze]

UKMO although better for more widespread snow at 96 hrs than the GFS, looks dodgy going forward IMO

Edited January 11, 2013 by CreweCold

[MrSunshine]

good run however we want snow not a warm sector.we want further west that is all

As bulish as the GFS is no warm sector will touch the UK in the reliable future, its all tracking south through Spain.

[Wilxy]

Is the UKMO already rolling out?

[Snowy Liverpool]

good run however we want snow not a warm sector.we want further west that is all

I'd much rather sacrifice one snow event for something that would lock us in a cold spell for at least a week than get the snow event and then a return to mild. Though on that subject UKMO has a much narrower warm sector.

As for the run, an undercut might be asking too much, but once again this is big progress from the GFS.

[Continental Climate]

Its difficult to know what to think with all these little piddling shortwaves popping up everywhere http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png!!

ukmo not out yet

[Met4Cast]

I'd much rather sacrifice one snow event for something that would lock us in a cold spell for at least a week than get the snow event and then a return to mild. Though on that subject UKMO has a much narrower warm sector.

As for the run, an undercut might be asking too much, but once again this is big progress from the GFS.

Yeah, 00z is better initially but Atlantic trough alignment at T144 is less good for deep cold remaining over the UK. The bigger warm sector on the GFS is annoying but the UKMO is much better, I don't think it's worth getting caught up in the details for that yet, though!

Plenty to play for. I expect the GFS will be an outlier midrange

Edited January 11, 2013 by Daniel Smith

[Cheshire Freeze]

Its difficult to know what to think with all these little piddling shortwaves popping up everywhere http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1141.png!!

ukmo not out yet

Out to 96 on Wetter

Edited January 11, 2013 by CreweCold

[Met4Cast]

18z

00z

Complete lack of consistency from the GFS once again. The saga continues

[Snowy Liverpool]

Its difficult to know what to think with all these little piddling shortwaves popping up everywhere http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1141.png!!

ukmo not out yet

UKMO is a weird one. The only time that updates is t96 on wetterzentrale at first, then meteociel updates it as normal shortly after.

Edit: Looks like we're getting the undercut, though much more marginal than the ECM. Just remember where we were at 2 runs ago, this is miles better.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Snowy Liverpool

[LomondSnowstorm]

No problems with the GFS, a slight shift west would lessen the warm sector impact and allow the deep cold uppers to advent further west as per the 18Z. An undercut is still and undercut though, and that's enough for me at this stage, given what we were looking at 24 hours ago on this model.

[Matty M]

Out to 96 on Wetter

That ukm frankly looks poor, shortwave soth of greenland and limited waa.

=

[Continental Climate]

ukmo not out at all on meteociel strange for wetter to be first

[Snowfan50]

Just looking now like it will be just a battle ground scenario, with mild air pushing back the cold air during the week.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Snowfan50