Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

[Cheshire Freeze]

Now this is a seriously good chart for the Midlands northwards.....from IMBY perspective BANK......10cm+ of snow piling up.

[Continental Climate]

not bad i think http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png shame its at 138 and looks completely different from 18z no consistency whatsoever

[PolarWarsaw]

Mmmm - we will see how things go with the ECM. But I'm a tad 'ho hum' about this mornings charts SO FAR. Still all to play for and absolutely no signal.

Prolonged cold 55%

Milder attack mid next week 45%

[Met4Cast]

not bad i think http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1381.png shame its at 138 and looks completely different from 18z no consistency whatsoever

The GFS is finally getting its act together and bringing the cold air back by T144 as the shortwaves finally begin heading South.

Further uncertainties to start today with then with the GFS causing further shortwave problems. Very, very poor consistency, why the GFS is considered a top model is beyond me to be honest.

[Dave Kightley]

poor run for the s.w. bloody hell.

[Continental Climate]

decent run from gfs http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png!! After this complete fi though, i just wish the atlantic would quieten down its still got life in it!! Without a decent blocking high around greenie/iceland we will always look a bit marginal

we need the nao to start tanking

Edited January 11, 2013 by Continental Climate

[Snowy Liverpool]

The GFS is finally getting its act together and bringing the cold air back by T144 as the shortwaves finally begin heading South.

Further uncertainties to start today with then with the GFS causing further shortwave problems. Very, very poor consistency, why the GFS is considered a top model is beyond me to be honest.

These shortwave problems are 5-6 days out to be fair. ECM and UKMO have them scattered all over the place as well.

[MrSunshine]

Its a very good run from the GFS again tonight if your looking for a cold solution, some people on here make me laugh!

[Continental Climate]

ukmo just dribbling out on meteo now

[Dave Kightley]

Its a very good run from the GFS again tonight if your looking for a cold solution, some people on here make me laugh!

not saying its a poor run unless u live in wales and s.w. Poor run for me.

[Met4Cast]

not saying its a poor run unless u live in wales and s.w. Poor run for me.

Overall the pattern is an upgrade, and yet at the same time it's downgraded the cold, only the GFS could both upgrade and downgrade at exactly the same time.

[kev238]

Yeah lots of these posts saying poor run are very location based. It's a riskier run for sure but by 144 cold air is backing west. And before that a battleground develops. The key thing is the shortwave drops south or south east. It does have warmer uppers for some but that is not too important in the bigger picture.

Miles better than the runs 24 hours ago from gfs

[Wilxy]

UKMO still looks good if not better at 96h with it a bit further west

[MrSunshine]

Its only a downgrade if you live "down south", anywhere from Stoke northwards is a significant upgrade.

[Snowy Liverpool]

Ah UKMO giving us problems now, not too keen on an undercut. We're not going to get cross-model agreement on this until t00 are we?

[Met4Cast]

UKMO is much better

Although I'm not sure what to make of the T144 chart with heights trying to build North, undercutting would be a problem

Edited January 11, 2013 by Daniel Smith

[Continental Climate]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013011100/UN144-21.GIF?11-05!! Has anyone noticed that huge lobe of vortex in canada it seems to be pivoting around greenland and heading into the north atlantic, surely that wont help us wont it create more energy and shortwaves?

[SNOWPLOUGH]

Mad FI on the GFS- should finish up with a greeny high.

Not sure what to make of the output in the reliable..its a mess really.

Dan

[Dave Kightley]

Ok with the synoptics upgrading but if it doesnt produce snow as we want. whats the point a with gfs upto weds the s.w will be lucky to acheive a covering for long if at all why i hope it doesnt happen

[Met4Cast]

If you like Zonal, Northerlies, Undercutting and Easterlies then the GFS FI will suit you perfectly, just about every possible solution being thrown into that.

The UKMO is better in the short term for snowfall but poor for prolonged cold, the GFS is poorer in the short term but slightly better in the long term for cold and snow before it goes mental with a 955MB low in the Mid Atlantic.

[rory o gorman]

the gfs is bi- polar tonight , still has no handle on the synoptic changes . bin it !

[MrSunshine]

Ok with the synoptics upgrading but if it doesnt produce snow as we want. whats the point a with gfs upto weds the s.w will be lucky to acheive a covering for long if at all why i hope it doesnt happen

That is a completly stupid comment with respect Dave. Snow potential for huge swathes of the UK next week is very much on.

[Jezzer]

As many have said before, I think we need to just get the cold in place and then we can worry about the snow. It's always likely to crop up at very short notice

[Met4Cast]

The GEM will chear you up

It's having none of what the GFS is showing anyway

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

GFS Seems to have firmed up nicely on giving a snowy and generally cold week for many. The mild attacks seems to have been squeezed although anyone on the western side of the BI will be thrown into the mild air for half a day or two according to the GFS. sitting half way up the Pennines I hope to be looking at a gloriously

snowy week, although the thing that gets me is

that I can NEVER remember getting a half

decent cold spell without ANY major mid level,

never mind high level, blocking in place. Can

this be possible? Has it happened previously?

Wax off the ski's dudes

Pa thought bi polar British isles ment it gets very cold twice in one week. Ha ha ha (see Rory o Gorman post)