London & South East Regional Discussion 16/01/13 18z------>

[Kent Blizzard]

So far things have gone as forecast for early hours, however we need a bit more shift to the west of this damn trough!

http://www.meteorada...z=7&x=525&y=475

You might get a small NE'ly in the next couple hours http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited January 17, 2013 by Kent Blizzard

[blackprince]

You might get a small NE'ly in the next couple hours http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

That would be nice..its all been going down the channel as VM thought it would.

[ukpaul]

(as posted in model thread)

Well the latest update as regards precipitation totals and the eastward movement of the front on the metoffice website suggests that they are fully confident of their own model and the NAE against most of the others. In fact for Guildford it shows heavy snow from 9am on Friday until 6pm, if it's even half that I'll be surprised but happy.

Or is it that these forecasts are a lagging indicator and will change by the morning to reflect a westward shift and a decaying front?

Or will the other models, in fact, move towards what they are saying in any case?

Just wondering where their bullishness comes from, it's very unusual to have snowy southerlies, do they see some sort of effect from the channel, given the other factors? Any ideas?

[blackprince]

We must be the only area to have temps gone up its 1,6c and dp -0.5 which are both 2 degrees warmer than 16.00.

[Neilsouth]

We must be the only area to have temps gone up its 1,6c and dp -0.5 which are both 2 degrees warmer than 16.00.

This happened last night, don't worry.. Upper winds have again slightly shifted towards a warmer north sea and it's close to the precipitation towards the very eastern parts of kent. This is my noob explanation :D

[john pike]

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

if you look at that satellite

look east

the low there should give this lot in the north sea a kick westwards

going bed now

goodnight all

[VillagePlank]

We must be the only area to have temps gone up its 1,6c and dp -0.5 which are both 2 degrees warmer than 16.00.

No - temps are edging up slowly, here. Still -4.2c, though!

[Met4Cast]

The Met Office have me under light snow from 12PM Friday until 9AM on Sunday! I'd prefer to see heavy snow symbols instead, but that'll do!

A beautiful convergence has setup to our South-East hence the streamer that's currently giving Cali a pasting!

Edited January 17, 2013 by Daniel Smith

[blackprince]

This happened last night, don't worry.. Upper winds have again slightly shifted towards a warmer north sea and it's close to the precipitation towards the very eastern parts of kent. This is my noob explanation

Cheers learning all the time...hope you are recovering well enough to get some nice snowy shots from your window at the weekend.

[Neilsouth]

Cheers learning all the time...hope you are recovering well enough to get some nice snowy shots from your window at the weekend.

Was in ALOT of pain last night and at the moment, will be shopping tomorrow but that depends on the snow. I dont wan't to fall over and pull all my stitches out

[Kent Blizzard]

Something to keep an eye on over the coming days http://www.yr.no/kart/#lat=56.15634&lon=-2.54953&zoom=3&laga=nedb%C3%B8rskyer&proj=3575

[john pike]

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

[blackprince]

Was in ALOT of pain last night and at the moment, will be shopping tomorrow but that depends on the snow. I dont wan't to fall over and pull all my stitches out

I have an online shop coming so apart from work Friday night I dont need to go out,be careful it could be icy..

[Kent Blizzard]

One last post before bed...

Meto forecast update for me now reads - Light Snow from Midday Friday till 06:00 Sunday then some respite before now showing light snow shower again at 03:00 Monday.

Temps still bitter also, No higher than 1*c and thats Monday !!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=5day

Night all, lets hope the morning brings more fun and games.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Kent Blizzard

[blackprince]

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

I quite often watch this radar it is just very clear (high res).I thought you had gone to bed

[john pike]

I quite often watch this radar it is just very clear (high res).I thought you had gone to bed

going now

goodnight mate

[tasty_snacks]

And a sigh of relief for the SE, for now. It's tacked east again on the midnight run. PPN not as intense, mind.

[easton888]

Yes it looks a bit better, down to 12 hours snow now, but a bit more than 18z predicted

[Coopsy]

Ive read 39 hours, 24 hours, 16 hours and now 12....wonder how low it's gonna go lol

[SMU]

very good ukmo and nae ooz runs for the se....

[Brocken Spectre]

How good Steve, on my phone so can't "delve".

Cheers

[SMU]

more sustained PPN- GFS UKMO & NAE all sort of allign to 10-12CM-

the GFS at 96 appears a little system which adds a few as well....

still a way to go though at 24/36 hrs- although a slide south & east overnight-

S

[manutdmatt1986]

It's all slightly further south as well which decreases the chance of things being marginal.

[Jezzer]

Cheers Steve, and Matt has just said this on twitter, better potential for us

"@MattHugo81: Surprised by latest UKMO fcsts for NW Eng in particular. 00z high RESO data looks a big downgrade here with the front pivoting. Less snow.

@MattHugo81: Closer look, it seems as though the front develops a low pressure on it in the Irish Sea now and this takes precip away from NW Eng.

@MattHugo81: Risk of snow increases for N Ire and also moves along more southern areas perhaps as well. So again surprised for NW Eng for from MO."

[Radiating Dendrite]

-6.3c here currently.

So a bit of good news, could this possibly upgrade for us? Given this new development (the low) ?