London & South East Regional Discussion 16/01/13 18z------>

[chionomaniac]

Amber warning may get moved south and east note!

[SMU]

God what a personality he is Matt taylor- may as well be David Taylor the snooker player for the interest in weather he conveyed in that forecast.

bring back rob .....

S

[Lampostwatcher]

Oh sky news weather had snow all the way but hardly any in Kent area

[snowbob]

Cockcroft always does it and hardly ever backs down till the las min

So many times I have seen him say

" don't know if you were watching a few days ago but now"

I think he just covers himself for longer than other forecasters

[danm]

The high res part of those BBC graphics on the national forecast only went out to 6am Friday, so don't take the graphics beyond that too seriously. Things will become much clearer tomorrow, and even then as ever it will be down to radar watching on the day. No point getting overly excited or overly disappointed at the moment.

Edited January 16, 2013 by danm

[Paul Sherman]

Well have seen enough of the GFS To throw it into the Bin, absolutely appalling run from start to finish, I know a lot of you know how badly I rate GooFuS But it has been an absolute shocker since the turn of the year, from it being dragged kicking and screaming by the Euro and UKMO about 8 days ago trying to even get us into this pattern, remember the Svalbard Shortwave drama when it wanted to move it against the Jet, it now has the LP over Iberia on Sun/Mon and then tries to move the Azores High into the UK, after that failed its back to default South Westerlies on Wednesday. That model is absolutely disgraceful, not going to say this one is down the pan until the UKMO & Euro start to backtrack!

RANT OVER

[Nath]

Just think guys and gals, back in my youth that 10:30pm forecast would be it as far as info goes until tomorrow at 9:30am or lunchtime. Imagine the sleepless hours not knowing if had all gone pear shaped overnight!!

[Crystal Memories]

Snowing moderately in Thanet now and starting to settle, definately not sleet.

I got heavy balls now as well

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013011618/gfs-0-168.png?18

GFS 168 ^^

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013011612/ECM1-168.GIF?16-0

ECM 168 ^^

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html UKMO top of the tree day 5 & day 6

S

[A Wintry Mix]

Snowing moderately in Thanet now and starting to settle, definately not sleet.

Not in Minster!!

[GoonerGregg77]

Hmm, I've been looking on cautiously, and you can take the latest runs and apparent downgrade(s) on snow even making enough inroads towards the SE as this.. The block to our East is very strong. That's a good sign right? We can't have our cake and eat it can we? Of course we want to, but let's be realistic, we have seen at least two bands of precipitation trying to move in west to east, but the block shoved them sharply south eastwards through SW England and said goodbye to them as they marched into Northern France.

Friday's band will have more energy coming in off the Atlantic, and will try extra hard to beat the block, but on evidence up til now on going by the the latest runs again, it would appear with a better effort, it will just about make the central belt of the country and maybe just a bit further east into West London even, thus giving only a few cm's of snow for it's efforts before being sucked to death of energy and fizzling out! That's the guess at the moment anyway.

If this front moves west to east easily enough, I'd be more inclined to actually believing the block isn't as strong as being shown in the models, and that may be a sign that more energy will surpass the block and break it down.

We have to be realistic and be greatful however disappointed and disgruntled we'd be about not possibly getting 'Snowmaggedon' on Friday that the block is proving tough to break, and hope we get more of a easterly or NE component and then we can get some beefy showers in off the north sea.

Not that I'd be that much excited at losing out yet again, I feel rather downbeat about our diminishing prospects, but eh, we can safely say after the last few supposed events, were slowly getting used to it.

[lottiekent]

Lana (can't think of her surname?) the weather lady on BBC SE news forecast showed snow for Friday with highs of -1c and snow for Saturday with high of 0c...

[Snow and storms]

I see this event going 1 of 2 ways. firstly we either get the heavy snow we were promised or secondly the front is further west, meaning that when it sinks south of us it will pull in very strong E-NE'yls bringing in streamers right across the county.

On a side note, not much has been talked about the wind, we are forecast 30-38mph gusts along south east coast. This is not something we are used to under the influence of cold, I think when the freezing weather is biting against us in the wind it is going to feel unusally cold.

[scrat]

God what a personality he is Matt taylor- may as well be David Taylor the snooker player for the interest in weather he conveyed in that forecast.

bring back rob .....

S

Have to reiterate that your forecast earlier was fantastic (first chance to say that). Can I ask....... Where is Rob? He was fantastic!

[therecoil]

Just seen local weather ( Brighton ) on BBC and showed snow all day Friday and Saturday cloudy on Sunday with temps of + 1 and 0 throughout Yippeee !!!!!!

[snowbob]

Funny how things change three or so weeks ago

I was praying for a bit of sleet or anything lol

Gfs has been bad throughout this week

Just my opinion of course

It never wanted to show this cold developing last week

And was last to show this

[Paul Sherman]

As you can now see from Steve's links (Thanks Steve for putting into charts what I was trying to say)

GFS = BIN!

[Jason M]

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-168.png?18

GFS 168 ^^

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?16-0

ECM 168 ^^

http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html UKMO top of the tree day 5 & day 6

S

Indeed, very interesting where GFS ends up in FI though. This is starting to become a very strong signal now accross the models for a big CP outbreak from the NE.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=0

Jason

[lottiekent]

I got heavy balls now as well

Might want to see a doctor about that! So it's snowing now? Still fizzling as it gets to me or just sliding past into the Channel....cloudy now at least.

[manutdmatt1986]

Amber warning may get moved south and east note!

What makes you think that, Chiono?

[High Altitude]

Iirc, he records his forecasts in the afternoon, so massively out of date...

Must have recorded two this afternoon then coz 6pm was different from 10:35. On 6pm he said snow turning to rain on Sat and turning less cold. This later one, 'Snow might turn sleety'.

Anyhow I mean't it in jest, Love u really Petey baby.

[Crystal Memories]

Might want to see a doctor about that! So it's snowing now? Still fizzling as it gets to me or just sliding past into the Channel....cloudy now at least.

lol my balls have turned colder ..................... snow now lol

[afcone]

Looking at the 18Z NMM for 18.00 on Friday, it would appear that the front is slightly to the west of that shown by the NAE for the same period of time.

However, all is not lost - we can't see the later runs so it's far too early to be writing off this episode. Let's see what the 0Z runs show.

[Ice BIast]

Not in Minster!!

You're not missing much TBH, it's melting now, must be pretty marginal.

Edited January 16, 2013 by lce Blast

[Tom Montalbano]

Meto have gone with their own model for latest Fax at t120.

Just a reminder to what t144 went on to show on their 12z run.

Regards,

Tom.