London & South East Regional Discussion 16/01/13 18z------>

[CrimsonSunset]

The front still has to cross Ireland and the Irish sea, could weaken it an awful lot. It may not even get further east than Oxford/Reading. It would need to be one mother of a front to get the whole way over to London/east coast

[ChartViewer]

I think we need to reserve jusgement until the models update tomorrow- remember it was only 2 hours ago the ECM run the whole front through-

the 18z just like the 06z is the PUB run- so I will leave it there-

temps here aiming on -5c overnight....

S

Steve from your post i suggest your as nervous as us for the eastern push of the precip?

Edited January 16, 2013 by ChartViewer

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Im pretty west TBH in our location.. about 100m inside the M25s most western point and 2 miles from the Berkshire border so I still welcome people round my house based on the 18z for a snowball fight

[tonbridgemole]

Right let's see who's right

Ukmo and fax charts

Ecm

Or the reliable 18z gfs

I think I know where my money goes

Ukmo and fax charts

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The front still has to cross Ireland and the Irish sea, could weaken it an awful lot. It may not even get further east than Oxford/Reading. It would need to be one mother of a front to get the whole way over to London/east coast

er? No... So many factors would aid the front.. But where it stalls is key.. Radar watching me thinks..

[Southender]

Jesus H Christ. What a ball breaker for Eastern Kent and Essex in particular.

Can we see an Eastwards correction at this timeframe?...Yes. Is it likely?...No.

And as Kold has said. Even Western parts are now treading a thin line.

Bugger.

Please god not again. Hoping for upgrades overnight...

Edited January 16, 2013 by Shrimper

[Jayces]

I warned you all but nobody listened and hence are now disappointed.

The experts on here have told us the GFS has an Eastwards bias I believe so we can expect further corrections over the next 6 runs I expect.

I think we will get light snow and for a while but I don't feel it's going to be disruptive unless there is a big correction Eastwards.

[Kent Blizzard]

The latest update of this data came out at 2100, quite a strong front coming in helped by the fact it's windy. The front will stall!! Could pose quite a significant dump where it stalls, current prognosis is for Front 1 to stall over East Anglia/London & Home counties. Second front should help push more into the UK on Saturday...

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358553600

The update for me in ME5 went from Midday Friday till 06:00 Sunday LOL oh how I wish that comes off !! not as confident just yet.

[mpkio2]

Dear god, I hope this GFS 18z run is an outlier!

BBC still showing 24 hour snow for London. I just hope Central London gets a covering from this; I haven't seen one flake of snow settle so far!!

[Basil_Fawlty_Walks_On_Water]

westward shift is probably marginally better for keeping the cold in the long run, but frustrating in terms of potential for immediate snow... and after Monday being taken away 48 hours before fruition, to have Friday follow the same fate would certainly a shame!

[Djdazzle]

I warned you all but nobody listened and hence are now disappointed.

The experts on here have told us the GFS has an Eastwards bias I believe so we can expect further corrections over the next 6 runs I expect.

I think we will get light snow and for a while but I don't feel it's going to be disruptive unless there is a big correction Eastwards.

You are talking like it's already happened. It hasn't.

[snowbob]

This could be all wrong

Roll on fax charts

C'mon jp lol

[Azores Hi]

er? No... So many factors would aid the front.. But where it stalls is key.. Radar watching me thinks..

It's going to be an agonising day on Friday watching the front on the radar that's for sure. We won't know for sure where it will stall (if at all) until it actually happens. I'm tempted to rip out my internet connection and avoid all that agony!

[West Sussex Kate]

oh well what will be will be.... and i've stocked up on enough food to last a month, so if it doesn't snow, at least i've got plenty to eat!

[SMU]

Steve from your post i suggest your as nervous as us for the eastern push of the precip?

im always nervous as I still have kettley 1996 nightmares- forecasting the snowline to be Hastings, London, Cambridge, Hull , Newcastle- only to wake up to find the snowline was

Bournemouth, Newbury, Oxford, Midlands & beyond....

Just have to wait & see- all I want is a few CM's just to have a lark about in- doesnt need to be knee deep-

S

[WillinGlossop]

Nothing nip no precip...... No snow or rain...... But cold...... If we kept the cold and monday/ tuesday low pulled south but moved east we could be snow, easterlies, -5c and snowbound.....1987? 82? Got my years confused?

Edited January 16, 2013 by willinkent44

[kold weather]

Well the NAE does get there in the end, takes a little longer and the front is weakening, but snow for most of the region. Further east than the 18z GFS run

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/16/basis18/ukuk/prty/13011818_1618.gif

without a doubt its not the snow-fest locations further west have. Just got to accept that this is the way its going to be in this set-up. Doesn't mean we won't get snow.

[hardcj]

My 2 pence worth.... Now firstly Steve Murr pointed out earlier that the UKMO had 2 runs that were near identical with regards to the tracking and position of the low on Friday/Saturday.

This is just 1 GFS/NAE run! Previous runs were on track for a country wide event and maye wobble east/west run by run.

The UKMO has been performing excellently recently and the GFS/NAE have followed suit either way throughout this whole cold spell so I personally will stick with the UKMO outlook! The GFS never quite gets there till 12h before any event like this! It seems to try every possibility until then!

[danm]

I think some people need to chill out a little bit. We are still 36hrs or so away from the event, and there is plenty of time for things to change. Also worth remembering how poor the NAE was last weekend.

[Crystal Memories]

Has anyone got any idea why the snow is now turning to sleet after being being snow during the day? surly it cant have warmed up with a NE wind lol

[Lampostwatcher]

London is looking good

[therecoil]

Anybody know if Brighton area still on for any snowfall at all on Friday/ Saturday ?

[beng]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201301161800&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Latest NAE is not that bad for most of the SE - assuming it's close to reality and assuming the front is stalling in this position. As Kold says - we might get some extra energy off the channel to perk things up.

[tight isobar]

Well this is my personal op, not buying into 18z espec, with recent prog/support from other output, lets hope i dont eat my words...:-0.....one for the skip.

[Rinse The Raindrops]

You can't blame the models the weather will decide as I've said before too much information these days putting hopes up and anyway GFS was forecasting a cold snap this week and was way out on its own