London & South East Regional Discussion 16/01/13 18z------>

[CrimsonSunset]

This happens EVERY time. I'm not one bit surprised. Been chasing our tails all winter

[CWT2012]

The GFS and NAE are a joke, I will not worry until UKMO and ECM are on board and I doubt that that will happen

[ChartViewer]

should we pack our bags now and head west!?

Yes West South west London ......

[kold weather]

If it pulls short for you guys in the far south east pop across to my area in sw london for a snowball fight there should be plenty to go around. I will provide the food u bring the booze.

I'd hardly be too confident. I'm in Guildford at the moment. We do have a little more room for things to shift a touch, BUT its getting a little nervy here. As has been said, its only going to correct further west if its going to correct anymore.

We will see, I'm nervous here in Surrey...which doesn't bode well for you guys further east.

[clark3r]

It's one run! See what charts show in the morning!

[Radiating Dendrite]

The GFS and NAE are a joke, I will not worry until UKMO and ECM are on board and I doubt that that will happen

The ECM was not great for our region either.

If I see news footage of huge snow piles in the west on Saturday, I may kick my tv in!!!

[DanN]

Right, put all your bread back on the shelves. Prices of sledges just dropped by 50%. :-)

[Jo S]

If it pulls short for you guys in the far south east pop across to my area in sw london for a snowball fight there should be plenty to go around. I will provide the food u bring the booze.

Im there with bells on

[snowbob]

But there was always the risk the block to our east was gonna prove a lot stronger than the models were showing

[RJM]

The GFS and NAE are a joke, I will not worry until UKMO and ECM are on board and I doubt that that will happen

Yes good point. That is only one model isn't it? We surely can't say it's 100% right over all others right at this point in time can we?

[Matty J]

Whooppeee i might get a dusting if i'm lucky then at this rate! Honestly it's hard not to be dissapointed when every run is a downgrade. I had rain the other day whilst areas a few miles away had plenty of snow and friday i'll probably get zilch whilst areas in the midlands and west get nigh on a foot!😡

Its amazing that being in the east when the cold is coming from the east seems to be the worst place to be!! 😥

M

[Ice BIast]

Light snow in Thanet

[Dexter29]

Why does everyone seem shocked?

There were signs even yesterday that the ppn may be weak by the time it reaches here, all day today I had that niggling feeling something wasn't right, that's why I didnt bring out the ridiculous '1 liner ramps' and remained very reserved.

The block is strong, some very cold air to get through. That's why that ppn will may not reach here.

Just think the rest of the UK excluding SW west Wales get heavy snow and get to stick with cold.

We get no snow and stick with cold = kick in teeth

[Met4Cast]

Useless. Utterly useless. Why is it so freaking hard to get a covering of snow this winter?!

[Kent Blizzard]

Well bit of a downgrade to my Kent Snow Map I'm afraid but often there is with these types of events and like I said plenty of time for things to change again.

But after the latest outputs, knowledge from the more experienced posters and also media here is the updated map.

[CWT2012]

The ECM was not great for our region either.

If I see news footage of huge snow piles in the west on Saturday, I may kick my tv in!!!

I have an aunt in Redditch who I have not visited in a good while, am thinking it might be time for a family reunion up there this weekend

[london-snow]

I'd hardly be too confident. I'm in Guildford at the moment. We do have a little more room for things to shift a touch, BUT its getting a little nervy here. As has been said, its only going to correct further west if its going to correct anymore.

We will see, I'm nervous here in Surrey...which doesn't bode well for you guys further east.

Why so nervy its the weather it will do what it wants and could not care if our feelings get hurt lol.

Chilax it will snow i would take 1cm and for it to stick around than to have 20cms and for it to melt a few hours later.

[Davey80]

I'm in central north Hampshire. Should I be concerned

[john pike]

Right let's see who's right

Ukmo and fax charts

Ecm

Or the reliable 18z gfs

I think I know where my money goes

[High Altitude]

So if the the BBC use the 12z data for late evening forecast then the 10:30 one will be a waste of time watching if the 18z are to be believed..

[SMU]

I think we need to reserve jusgement until the models update tomorrow- remember it was only 2 hours ago the ECM run the whole front through-

the 18z just like the 06z is the PUB run- so I will leave it there-

temps here aiming on -5c overnight....

S

[CWT2012]

Yes good point. That is only one model isn't it? We surely can't say it's 100% right over all others right at this point in time can we?

GFS has been hopeless recently, their predictions ever since December have been very wide of the mark

NAE called Mondays stuff perfectly but they are only ever any good on the day itself, 3 days out they are as reliable as Mystic Meg

[tight isobar]

Im, out ön nw fringe, of london. A slightly favoured location according,to 18z, but Its not making me jump for joy.still feel there will be upgrades though.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If it pulls short for you guys in the far south east pop across to my area in sw london for a snowball fight there should be plenty to go around. I will provide the food u bring the booze.

Amen to that!

[Robbie Garrett]

The latest update of this data came out at 2100, quite a strong front coming in helped by the fact it's windy. The front will stall!! Could pose quite a significant dump where it stalls, current prognosis is for Front 1 to stall over East Anglia/London & Home counties. Second front should help push more into the UK on Saturday...

That'll be based on previous data though!

Usually I'd agree the GFS PPN charts are useless, but the 18z NAE shifts the PPN Westwards too. I think we expected too much, historically these events rarely reach our region, the block to our North-East is annoyingly too strong.

The far West of our region might get lucky, but to be honest I'm expecting further Westward shifts through tomorrow now, our hope is we can get a decent flow off the North Sea as the low clears, but once again, this cold spell fails to deliver for a large part of the South-East.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Robbie Garrett