London & South East Regional Discussion 16/01/13 18z------>

[manutdmatt1986]

Well the NAE does get there in the end, takes a little longer and the front is weakening, but snow for most of the region. Further east than the 18z GFS run

http://expert-images...011818_1618.gif

without a doubt its not the snow-fest locations further west have. Just got to accept that this is the way its going to be in this set-up. Doesn't mean we won't get snow.

That's actually not bad.

I just want some snow!!!!

[ChartViewer]

im always nervous as I still have kettley 1996 nightmares- forecasting the snowline to be Hastings, London, Cambridge, Hull , Newcastle- only to wake up to find the snowline was

Bournemouth, Newbury, Oxford, Midlands & beyond....

Just have to wait & see- all I want is a few CM's just to have a lark about in- doesnt need to be knee deep-

S

Snap but i want this

[SMU]

If only the NAE went to 54 it would ease the tension...

like I said the GFS is the pub run- so whilst it has some tangents with yesteryear the EUROS are the ones to put the faith in-

We will need to be close to these in the morning-

UKMO PPN at T48 on the 00z is key

S

[Dexter29]

I think some people need to chill out a little bit. We are still 36hrs or so away from the event, and there is plenty of time for things to change. Also worth remembering how poor the NAE was last weekend.

I don't, some poor folk in this region missed out on the snow early this week. I think another let down they have every right to be pi**ed off! Chasing rainbows all the blinking time.

I don't remember the NAE performing bad last weekend.

[Nath]

Like I said earlier if the Atlantic fronts struggle and dont make it to our region, it bodes well for a longer, colder and more snowy period over the following week(s).

This happened several times over the 1980s and could be about to repeat finally 30+ years later!!

[lottiekent]

Has anyone got any idea why the snow is now turning to sleet after being being snow during the day? surly it cant have warmed up with a NE wind lol

Sleet? I've been willing that to come my way but you can keep it if its sleet

As for Friday - What is the problem with this?

Edited January 16, 2013 by lottiekent

[Guest bjaykent]

What weather we get will not be decided by a computer model and certainly not just one run, just have to wait and see what nature sends our way. You can't get too disappointed about something that hasn't happened yet. 0z &12z tomorrow will give us all a better idea but even then it could come down to nowcasting.

[Jimmyh]

Pub run hopefully let's wait and c this is one run that has moved it west

[Lampostwatcher]

Still got done snow cover here

Could do with a good top up

[tonbridgemole]

Im putting my money on the ukmo...it as been the performer in my mind...keep your hopes up

[Optimus Prime]

I think the confusion with all the forecasts iterates the uncertainty. BBC has some of us getting milder from Sunday outwards whereas the Metoffice site keeps us below freezing all day & night from Friday - Sunday inclusive and probably well into next week as well.

Still have that memory of the BBC doing poorly with the January 2010 forecast on the Sunday for the Monday (countryfile) Was supposed to be rain and sleet turning to snow (not giving significant accumulations) but ended up getting 24cm as the front stalled over the south and developed.

[Easily sled]

Unfortunately, this is going to pan out the way I thought it would, stalling west not energy going east, we will still get snow, but cms rather than inches. On the positive, temps will stay low, and potential for streamers from early next week. This is just the beginning

[Mayroad snowdrifts]

Happily to live in the Brighton area as its further west towards the snow hope it's doesn't go further west then expected has it has done !!

[Crystal Memories]

Sleet? I've been willing that to come my way but you can keep it if its sleet

As for Friday - What is the problem with this?

lol I don't want it the only thing I can see wrong is that it could be a start to the end of this cold period

[Kent Blizzard]

Like I said earlier if the Atlantic fronts struggle and dont make it to our region, it bodes well for a longer, colder and more snowy period over the following week(s).

This happened several times over the 1980s and could be about to repeat finally 30+ years later!!

Knowing our luck it still wouldn't come off after all 13 is unlucky for some (2013) LOL

[manutdmatt1986]

My main concern is the tweet from EssexWeather saying that the new Met Office run has the heavier snow dying out over Buckinghamshire on Friday,

[Neilsouth]

I warned you all but nobody listened and hence are now disappointed.

The experts on here have told us the GFS has an Eastwards bias I believe so we can expect further corrections over the next 6 runs I expect.

I think we will get light snow and for a while but I don't feel it's going to be disruptive unless there is a big correction Eastwards.

You warned me?

I didn't listen?

I'm dissapointed?

hahaha I think not

[Paul Sherman]

Nice East North Easterly on Saturday though on the plus side Now the orientation is different, anyone got any straws ? Coasty ?

[SMU]

My main concern is the tweet from EssexWeather saying that the new Met Office run has the heavier snow dying out over Buckinghamshire on Friday,

that can only be the case if they have access to the 18z UKMO- IIRC goes out to 48- sadly its been ditched on the site I used to look at it on-

so who knows- I guess as usual we are waiting until the 00z model runs update-

S

[Azores Hi]

Nice East North Easterly on Saturday though on the plus side Now the orientation is different, anyone got any straws ? Coasty ?

I think poor old Coast is actually in orbit somewhere having built the biggest ramp ever!

[BlizzardBelle]

BBC weather on at 22.34

[Kent Blizzard]

I asked this afternoon but nobody replied so I'll try again...

With the winds swtiching to a NE'ly on Saturday would that help to hold the front over us longer?

[Djdazzle]

Unfortunately, this is going to pan out the way I thought it would, stalling west not energy going east, we will still get snow, but cms rather than inches. On the positive, temps will stay low, and potential for streamers from early next week. This is just the beginning

It must be amazing to be able to be like you, to be able to see things before they happen. What are you basing your comment on

?

[manutdmatt1986]

that can only be the case if they have access to the 18z UKMO- IIRC goes out to 48- sadly its been ditched on the site I used to look at it on-

so who knows- I guess as usual we are waiting until the 00z model runs update-

S

I thought it might be the MOGREPS they were talking about.

[Hammer]

In these situation raw output is often modified. I am sure we will see snow and those worrying to much need to try and not analyse everything for a negative.