London & South East Regional Discussion 16/01/13 18z------>

[tight isobar]

Agreed, 18z, showing heavier precip out to even +60, never realy making over us.im not to worried just YET...

[svalji]

What impact does this have on the broader scale? Does it mean the block remains in a stronger position?

[Coopsy]

If it doesn't happen I'll ship snow over to everyone ⛄😉

[SMU]

If I get another repeat of 1996 I wont be happy. the front stopped 5 miles to the west of me

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Never really liked that NAE so called "good" model piece of sh**

[tight isobar]

A lot more riding, ön 00z,and 6z, now

[crazy_diamond]

How does this run reflect on Peter Cockcroft's forecast earlier this evening?

CD

[manutdmatt1986]

Could be the second non-event for much of the South East in the space of 5 days. Too early to be sure though.

Edited January 16, 2013 by manutdmatt1986

[Kent Blizzard]

Hmmmm, stalling out to the west at +60...

Yeah not good but we have been here before, we just gotta keep the faith and hope for a change, there still time.

[Paul Sherman]

So come on then who had bets on the 7/4 2nd favourite earlier then ??

I know a few of you took the 3/1 route!

Damn was looking forward to the footy match being off as well, dont fancy an away trip to Canvey Island with the little nipper!

[Suburban Streamer]

So the gfs follows the nmm 12z. Onto tomorrow....

[ChartViewer]

Steve it will happen....Come on snow further East plse

[Jimmyh]

Could be the second non-event for much of the South East in the space of 5 days. Too early to be sure though.

Huh

[Nath]

If I get another repeat of 1996 I wont be happy. the front stopped 5 miles to the west of me

I remember that morning, I was on the M25 coming from the M11 in bright sunshine until I got to the M1 junction where everything was white!!

[manutdmatt1986]

After Monday's non-event for those of us South of the Thames.

On the plus side, the GFS appears to show a lot of snow showers hitting us from off the North Sea instead.

[Robbie Garrett]

Please don't use the GFS, it's so unreliable it's unbelievable. Snowfall for 24 hours + if this is believed... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map&map=SignificantWeather&fcTime=1358478000&zoom=7&lon=-1.62&lat=51.48

I'm still expecting downgrades for here the closer it gets. Always happens. There's still a lot that can change, its not nailed yet

Here come the downgrades then. The 18z GFS has the PPN dying out largely before it reaches our region now too

[Southender]

The NAE and GFS are huge downgrades. Make no bones about it. Eastern parts would be lucky to get a dusting. Other parts maybe a couple of cms. Lets hope for changes overnight. Or theres going to be a lot of p***** off people in here.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Shrimper

[A Wintry Mix]

Oh well, onwards and upwards how's Monday looking lol!

temp 0.09

[Radiating Dendrite]

Never really liked that NAE so called "good" model piece of sh**

And the GFS too? This is frustrating, we get rain on Monday, too warm! Then when it is cold enough, no precipitation! Arghhhhhhhhhh!

[kold weather]

The 18z now getting pretty close to the Feb 96 location of the front, which was not great for this location. History never tends to favour our location in such a set-up, but we will see. The west of the region still for now looking ok, but need to stop this westwards corrections...

[West Sussex Kate]

should we pack our bags now and head west!?

Edited January 16, 2013 by West Sussex Kate

[Sno' problem]

Met Office charts look pretty decent to me... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html#view

Occluded front over the SE at T+84 (Saturday noon).

[Met4Cast]

Please don't use the GFS, it's so unreliable it's unbelievable. Snowfall for 24 hours + if this is believed... http://www.metoffice...-1.62&lat=51.48

That'll be based on previous data though!

Usually I'd agree the GFS PPN charts are useless, but the 18z NAE shifts the PPN Westwards too. I think we expected too much, historically these events rarely reach our region, the block to our North-East is annoyingly too strong.

The far West of our region might get lucky, but to be honest I'm expecting further Westward shifts through tomorrow now, our hope is we can get a decent flow off the North Sea as the low clears, but once again, this cold spell fails to deliver for a large part of the South-East.

[london-snow]

If it pulls short for you guys in the far south east pop across to my area in sw london for a snowball fight there should be plenty to go around. I will provide the food u bring the booze.

[tight isobar]

Plenty of precip, to be had for us in snow form.......just maybe not in the dumps,we were hopeing.....one run though.still time to bring things forward......