London & South East Regional Discussion 16/01/13 18z------>

[SMU]

Hi I have never posted before, but love reading all your comments! Just wanted advise as I'm a bit confused. I'm from Brighton. How can the met o in there update this afternoon mention snow to rain even on their precipitation map and this morning have sun as rain in my area with a temp of 5c now a max of 0c on sun???? Regardless of their update! Can anyone help?? Thanks

the daily forecasts produced for TV are run on 2 lots of data-

the 00z UKMO ( UK met office ) is then analised & forecasts for TV are fed from the met office- these will be presented all day & also up into the eve TV forecast at 7pm

the 10PM forecast will use the updated 12z Run- & the UKMO 12z has moved the frontal zone further south- so brighton instead of being milder under SW winds & 5c sunday from the overnight run is now probably SE winds & 0c....

hope this helps-

S

[Kent Blizzard]

Not updated my snow risk map for Kent just yet BUT there may be some downgrades to % and depth I'm afraid, but you never know, always time for it to build again.

[PLANET THANET]

no snow here in thanet as yet

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Guys the NAE will go out to 6PM Friday.. That don't mean a downgrade (yet) just the PPN being slower to hit... Don't forget.. It will be (or should) start snowing around midday and continue hopfully with some beefy bits during the night Saturday some time..

Even so.. Still tomorrow for upgrades... Big changes like a shift west by 150 Miles at this short notice is so rare!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Surrey

[snowfall09]

Looks as though the NAE could have picked up a small streamer even for those in east Kent this eve...

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&WMO=&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201301161800%26HH%3D12

[manutdmatt1986]

EssexWeather

New Met Office run has the heavier snow dying out over Buckinghamshire on Friday. Essex is left with 1-2cm by end of day.

16/01/2013 21:22

Bugger.

[A Wintry Mix]

no snow here in thanet as yet

No surprise there then! are you hopefull for our little corner for Fri-Sat?

[kold weather]

Looking at the way the precip accumulations change between 42-48hrs, the precip still is building in our neck of the woods at an ok rate, nothing too impressive but not bad. Not sure its more west, it does look a little further south though by 48hrs with regards to the NE extent of the front.

Most of our fun would likely begin after 18z, as Steve said, with any low that tries to develop along the frontal zone.

[ChartViewer]

EssexWeather

New Met Office run has the heavier snow dying out over Buckinghamshire on Friday. Essex is left with 1-2cm by end of day.

16/01/2013 21:22

Bugger.

blimey that will be huge downgrade if that happens

[Crystal Memories]

Looks as though the NAE could have picked up a small streamer even for those in east Kent this eve...

http://www.weatheron...301161800&HH=12

yes that's what it looks like to me as well

[Southender]

EssexWeather

New Met Office run has the heavier snow dying out over Buckinghamshire on Friday. Essex is left with 1-2cm by end of day.

16/01/2013 21:22

Bugger.

Oh.

[kold weather]

EssexWeather

New Met Office run has the heavier snow dying out over Buckinghamshire on Friday. Essex is left with 1-2cm by end of day.

16/01/2013 21:22

Bugger.

Well given that data only goes out to 18z on Friday, and the second pluse isn't forecasted to develop till after 18z on Friday (IE 51-54hrs), I'd be very cautious of taking such statements as truth...

Edited January 16, 2013 by kold weather

[CrimsonSunset]

I'm still expecting downgrades for here the closer it gets. Always happens. There's still a lot that can change, its not nailed yet

[Met4Cast]

Here come the downgrades then. The 18z GFS has the PPN dying out largely before it reaches our region now too

[manutdmatt1986]

Looks like it misses us on the GFS too. Uh oh.

[Bluebreezer54]

Maybe its time to charge the batteries and load up the cameras ?

Oh....I see the doomongers have already taken over

Edited January 16, 2013 by Bluebreezer54

[SMU]

Hummm....

2 models- 2 corrections SW...

I think I will wait to comment on the 00z- but suffolk & east kent-even mid kent could be struggling....

S

[kold weather]

Its not so much the precip dying out, it just doesn't quite get as far east.

Looking closer and closer to a Feb 96 reduex on these runs. The west of the region still has a little wriggle room, E.Kent and S.Essex now getting mighty close to the point where there is nothing at all being suggested. Not there yet, but only needs another small correction west and we will be there.

[Jo S]

Always expect downgrades because it often happens,and if it doesn't that's great,nothing is ever nailed on with snow,dont want to be a party popper thats what happens

[tasty_snacks]

Hmmmm, stalling out to the west at +60...

[Southender]

Balls. Another kick in the nuts.

[Jayces]

It's only 48 hours away and yet again we risk missing out if the rate of decay increases at the same amount every 6 hours.

That would be sooooooooo cruel :-(

[Coopsy]

With any forecast of the cold staying the chance of the front dying before hitting the SE increases. Always a risk factor with this type of forecast

[PLANET THANET]

No surprise there then! are you hopefull for our little corner for Fri-Sat?

in a word no....according to the met office update at 2058hrs we have one small shot at light snow on friday evening and then its sleet for the duration of the weekend

[scrat]

OK, if this doesn't come off, will be required to buy the biggest snow machine ever and invite everyone over (to the bump). However, I have faith and am trying to keep up with the charts too ;-).Come on, we deserve this