Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

[nick sussex]

Well the ECM at 120hrs is miles apart from the UKMO, indeed it looks like even more energy might head se into France.

Given the recent performance of the UKMO you can't rule it out but we're seeing differences as early as T72hrs over Greenland between the models.

[andybk]

A really interesting programme (1963 winter)

Havent seen much yet about what caused it, but I expect thats well documented.

The trains smashing through the drifts with their ploughs were amazing !

Be careful what you wish for folks !

If our chilly snap ends this week, I'll be very disappointed however.

couldn't agree more , some of us remember long cold snow spells , and how frightening and disruptive they can be , and nearly all that wish for it would soon be fed up with it in a very short time when it started to affect everyday life , Boring I know but give me a wet warm winter every time .

[Tom D]

Well the GEM 12z looks like holding on to the cold for longer and even given that it stands alone I still wouldn't write off our chances

GEM very similar to ECM at t+96, t+120.

+96

http://www.meteociel...CM1-96.GIF?19-0

http://176.31.229.22...12/gem-0-96.png

+120

http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?19-0

http://176.31.229.22...2/gem-0-120.png

Albeit the GEM is better for Scandinavian heights.

EDIT: Oh dear. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2013011912/ECM1-144.GIF

Edited January 19, 2013 by Tom D

[Downpour]

couldn't agree more , some of us remember long cold snow spells , and how frightening and disruptive they can be , and nearly all that wish for it would soon be fed up with it in a very short time when it started to affect everyday life , Boring I know but give me a wet warm winter every time .

Why do you come on a weather enthusiasts' forum if you don't appreciate proper weather?

[johnholmes]

I think we will need a fast turnaround to see the atlantic return swerved away from the UK- It has happened this week & so it could happen again- however if it does move in fast it will be the end to a pretty pitiful cold spell-

A few days of snow here & there...

S

you are a comic Steve

the mean temperature here for the past 8 days is barely above zero, it has snowed on 6 days, ground covered 100% twice and 3 cm still on the ground this evening. I know it is hardly 1962-63 but for this area I would not describe it as you have done

[SMU]

The ECM is the pick of the strawberries tonight.....

With an upright high pressure wedge building NW of the UK at 120-

This is significantly better than the UKMO ( maybe a wobbly run) at 120 that has wiped its feet of the block to the NE-

the ECM should go on to see an atlantic attack with strong southerlies & perhaps a similar scenario that we played out Friday- however if the energy is slightly less in favour of South we will get a positively tilted high & SW winds-

more energy south & a much more favourable Neg tilted high ( & subsequent low ) which undercuts-

Fascinating times-

FI well early at T96 tongiht...

S

[johnholmes]

you are a comic Steve

the mean temperature here for the past 8 days is barely above zero, it has snowed on 6 days, ground covered 100% twice and 3 cm still on the ground this evening. I know it is hardly 1962-63 but for this area I would not describe it as you have done

thanks for the later more balanced view

[nick sussex]

It looks like just a temporary reprieve from the ECM as then energy spills east but thats if we believe the output at the 144hrs range.

I'd say the trend still favours an end to the cold at the end of next week but with still a small chance that we might see further delays to the milder conditions arriving.

[Summer Sun]

t144 shows the cold getting edge eastwards

Could be a break down to something slightly milder by next weekend

Edited January 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[SMU]

you are a comic Steve

the mean temperature here for the past 8 days is barely above zero, it has snowed on 6 days, ground covered 100% twice and 3 cm still on the ground this evening. I know it is hardly 1962-63 but for this area I would not describe it as you have done

John... As much as i love your rebuttles- If we take the UK as a whole as opposed to a hill in yorkshire then the picture is a lot less convincing-yes there has been a cold spell, however I am guessing the CET mean has probably been higher than that-But remember - A monthly CET of around 3c which is the ~ norm for the UK does have periods of time above that & below itso for every day you have been at a low CET then the rest of jan has compensated it...for the UK as a whole- probably a GOOD cold spell so far- tipified by a rare frontal ALL snow event ( bar the extreme SW)If it goes out with a whimper Tues then I would class it as a fairly bog standard cold SPELL- however if something like the ECm develops with further undercutting then we could turn it into a great cold spell.remember the whole thing has been ramped up by the Stratosphere thread- however thus far the 500 heights have been far from convincing on an anomaly front but luckily very favourable for the UK....Fingers crossed that it continues....S

[Summer Sun]

a big low incoming at t168

[weatherguy]

http://www.meteociel...H1-120.GIF?19-0

The ECM is the pick of the strawberries tonight.....

With an upright high pressure wedge building NW of the UK at 120-

This is significantly better than the UKMO ( maybe a wobbly run) at 120 that has wiped its feet of the block to the NE-

the ECM should go on to see an atlantic attack with strong southerlies & perhaps a similar scenario that we played out Friday- however if the energy is slightly less in favour of South we will get a positively tilted high & SW winds-

more energy south & a much more favourable Neg tilted high ( & subsequent low ) which undercuts-

Fascinating times-

FI well early at T96 tongiht...

S

FI has been around there for a good few weeks now, the GFS for instance has modelled the breakdown of our cold at around +120 (give or take a couple of days), and then extended it by a day, every day...

No model, not even the UKMO or ECM, have performed particularly well in dealing with a strong jet but slow/negative zonal winds. Of course this combo have been better than the GFS, but model confidence has still been low amongst these.

The point is that the cold spell is set to continue into the reliable timeframe (albeit this "reliable" period is very very short-term right now), and we still can not trust output showing otherwise until it really does come into this reliable timeframe - even if there seemingly is agreement for a breakdown a T+X. Will be fascinating to see which way this goes anyway, hoping for a repeat of the gradual backtrack of a week ago

Edited January 19, 2013 by weatherguy

[Jayces]

People who say the gfs is "leading the way" in regard to the return of the Atlantic are slightly missing the point.

In nearly chart beyond day 5 this past fortnight,the gfs seems obsessed to bring in the Atlantic yet has to backtrack day after day.

It has genuine issues regarding how it handles blocking,imo.

Remember,even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Not if the hands are missing ;-)

[SMU]

As posted thats a poor chart with strong South westerlies across the UK-

however a bit more energy south & that could once again turn into a great chart...

Another couple of days required-

Also critically for snowcover across the south- how much WAA do we get around the low on Tues ( T72)-

Ukmo wipes the snowcover out- ECM is a tad more gentle...

S

[Paul T]

120hrs has the energy from canada/America are going very much more south. This will have big effects downstream on the run. I havent actuallty seen the 144+ but this will be a decent run with energy going further south of the UK....

[Richie V]

At the mo, model watching is more addictive than crack, heroin and acid combined! As a zonal stormy guy the prospect of a possible atlantic onslaught vs the cold snowy stuff im enjoying at present is nearly too much for me to handle!

For me this is like someone filling my pocket with notes, pushing me towards the bar and saying, go on mate, drink all you can on me!..... I'll get my coat!

[Tim Bland]

120hrs has the energy from canada/America are going very much more south. This will have big effects downstream on the run. I havent actuallty seen the 144+ but this will be a decent run with energy going further south of the UK....

Best look at the 144+ then lol. I think we could drag this out until nxt weekend but were clutching at straws after that. Would be good to hear Stuart's thoughts on the longer term / bigger picture as he hasn't posted for a few days

[shotski]

So whats the chances of a reload after the main attack from the adlantic as in FI uppers of 10oC seems a bit crazy and the low inbound cannot be that low surely 950mB ??

in FI it looks like the adlantic steams ahead and its back to the norm. I have tried to filter out the comments on potential reload but am finding it hard to get around to it all. I guess I am hoping for a brilliant reload of the current setup to end the winter on a bang

If not its time to migrate to Canada lol

So its it possible to have a summary on whats to come early feb. And I know its not all certain etc etc, just want some opinions and charts so I can learn this steep curve

Hi all

If possible will some of the more experienced members on here give this guy an answer to the above.

Thanks in advance

Edited January 19, 2013 by shotski

[phil nw.]

ECM also looking at around next Friday/Saturday where we lose the cold upper air and a changeover to that more Atlantic influence.

T144hrs

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

The heights easing away from the NE .

Let`s hope for a last minute reprieve but with pretty good agreement on this between the big 3 along with ens,outputs it has an air of inevitability about it.

[nick sussex]

Further to SM's post the ECM 168hrs could turn into a much better chart if some energy tracks se'wards at 144hrs, even if the models bring that deep low in the angle of attack would then be much better with a se flow ahead of it.

Without tonights UKMO I'd be really trending towards an extension of the cold at least for a few more days than shown.

The UKMO is very progressive and theres already no way back from that if its T96hrs verifies. The fax charts will be interesting tonight because I wonder what MOGREPS supports.

The UKMO does really look like the odd one out in terms of the more respected global models at T96hrs but you frustratingly wouldn't bet against it verifying.

[Summer Sun]

t192

Good agreement for an Atlantic break down next week now

Edited January 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[Paul T]

Best look at the 144+ then lol. I think we could drag this out until nxt weekend but were clutching at straws after that. Would be good to hear Stuart's thoughts on the longer term / bigger picture as he hasn't posted for a few days

lol, yeah, however, actually not as progressive as yesterday 12z, trend is ok at 144hrs and 168hrs.

However, 192hrs puts the seal on the atlantic breakdown. I still have slight hope that it wont breakdown this simply and im usually more pessimistic on these things.

When i see a SW'rly at 120hrs I will wave my white flag!

Paul

Edited January 19, 2013 by Paul T

[johnholmes]

John... As much as i love your rebuttles- If we take the UK as a whole as opposed to a hill in yorkshire then the picture is a lot less convincing-yes there has been a cold spell, however I am guessing the CET mean has probably been higher than that-But remember - A monthly CET of around 3c which is the ~ norm for the UK does have periods of time above that & below itso for every day you have been at a low CET then the rest of jan has compensated it...for the UK as a whole- probably a GOOD cold spell so far- tipified by a rare frontal ALL snow event ( bar the extreme SW)If it goes out with a whimper Tues then I would class it as a fairly bog standard cold SPELL- however if something like the ECm develops with further undercutting then we could turn it into a great cold spell.remember the whole thing has been ramped up by the Stratosphere thread- however thus far the 500 heights have been far from convincing on an anomaly front but luckily very favourable for the UK....Fingers crossed that it continues....S

again amusing Steve the HILL I live on in Yorkshire is, see my web site, just above sea level!

yep we look forward those wanting cold to a reload which in my view is about a 60% probability to cold as the last week or so rather than coldish as it will become later next week into very early Feb.

[Summer Sun]

Big low over the SW at t216

That would soon wash away any remaining snow!

[Paul T]

christ!

Now i didnt expect that!