Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

however if it does move in fast it will be the end to a pretty pitiful cold spell-

A few days of snow here & there...

S

maybe in some areas and had pretty little lying here. But (assuming we get to Friday) best part of 2 weeks at little more than zero, some staggering overnight lows, a gorgeous frost morning, several snowfalls - not sure that's 'pitiful' for the UK. Onwards and upwards - does look like the Atlantic will win out in some shape or form next weekend, but details are surely unclear. ECM and GEFs may help put a bit of flesh on the bone tonight but I don't think anything will be clearcut for a couple of days. In the meantime let's enjoy tomorrow, as I've enjoyed the sledging today on the inch of snow!

Edited January 19, 2013 by BurwellWeatherWatch

[phil nw.]

not too different to what I suggested in my post this morning. They have to change markedly if blocking is what you want. That can happen but currently none of the main 3 show much if any sign of that-cold zonality might be a quick rather flip description?

Yes that`s seems to be the way it`s trending John.

Last mean outputs.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1681.gif

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rz500m7.gif

We still have a few days,possibly most of next week where we retain the cold and that would give the UK around 2 weeks of decent cold with snow for many-a decent cold spell in any terms.

It can`t be denied though that there have been growing signs from the ens outputs of some easing of the cold around the end of next week and todays 2mtr temps ens show this again.

inevitably once the block eases then further lows from the Atlantic will attack further north bringing in a more westerly flow- as shown in recent modelling.

Edited January 19, 2013 by phil n.warks.

[bluearmy]

The 12z gefs are not without interest. Is the atlantic actually going to get past the meridan ? The mean at T192 is now se rather than sw. Lets see how lower res progresses.

Edited January 19, 2013 by bluearmy

[Ian Brown]

I think we will need a fast turnaround to see the atlantic return swerved away from the UK- It has happened this week & so it could happen again- however if it does move in fast it will be the end to a pretty pitiful cold spell-

A few days of snow here & there...

S

The NWP is certainly trending towards one of the Lows breaking through by Friday/Saturday.

Don't agree about the cold spell - more snow chances over the coming days and if it ends next Friday that will be a cold spell of 12 days (admittedly not for Ireland/far West) having not had a Greenland High or a screaming easterly. Not a bad effort.

[Potent Gust]

I think we will need a fast turnaround to see the atlantic return swerved away from the UK- It has happened this week & so it could happen again- however if it does move in fast it will be the end to a pretty pitiful cold spell-

A few days of snow here & there...

S

Hi steve

You are one of the best posters on here but I don't agree with this comment. I think it depends on where you live. In Tamworth it has snowed 5 days within the last week and we have 12cm's of snow. Also we have barely got above freezing for a week. Looking at the models a breakdown of sorts does look likely towards the end of the week but by then we will have had nearly two weeks of cold weather and that for the UK that cannot be bad

[Weather-history]

Even UKMO firming up on a breakdown towards next weekend,

Infact, UKMO looks more progressive than the GFS 12z op run to me if I'm looking at it right.

[bluearmy]

I'm all for steve's post. The last time he posted in such a vein, the following day the nwp flipped to cold, cold, cold!

Anyone notice gem at T144 - plus ca change!

[AGAL]

angelina jolie!! best lady ive spent the night with only kiddin.................she was rubbish

Yeah that my experience as well, much prefer weather models.

[David 'Minty' Hill]

So whats the chances of a reload after the main attack from the adlantic as in FI uppers of 10oC seems a bit crazy and the low inbound cannot be that low surely 950mB ??

in FI it looks like the adlantic steams ahead and its back to the norm. I have tried to filter out the comments on potential reload but am finding it hard to get around to it all. I guess I am hoping for a brilliant reload of the current setup to end the winter on a bang

If not its time to migrate to Canada lol

So its it possible to have a summary on whats to come early feb. And I know its not all certain etc etc, just want some opinions and charts so I can learn this steep curve

Edited January 19, 2013 by David 'Minty' Hill

[Dave Kightley]

A question if the Atlantic does break through is that it for the winter in terms of Northern blocking or is it a temp affair?

[weatherguy]

A question if the Atlantic does break through is that it for the winter in terms of Northern blocking or is it a temp affair?

Background signals would suggest height rises to our NW.

[bluearmy]

A question if the Atlantic does break through is that it for the winter in terms of Northern blocking or is it a temp affair?

Means nothing in the great scheme of things dave. There's a lot of amplification in the week 2 gefs. I havent been paying much attention to the members recently. Has this been showing?

[Tim Bland]

I'm all for steve's post. The last time he posted in such a vein, the following day the nwp flipped to cold, cold, cold!

Anyone notice gem at T144 - plus ca change!

I remember it well... Steve was feeling a bit low and posted how the charts are so dire.... Next day we were in model heaven!

Personally I think GFS has started performing well again and in the last few days the others have been dragged kicking and screaming towards it. I would echo that IMO / IMBY this has been a great cold spell. Already had 3 falls of snow and it looks like at least 2 more to come tomorrow and Tuesday. I'm off to the Scottish alps next weekend for a good ski then looking forward to the models showing the next cold spell. Stick with GP is all I can say.. Reload into feb, in the meantime, thaw out, get some work done and then we can do it all again!

[allenar]

The thing is at the end of the day at some point It has to end. We were all spoilt by 2010. Its only weather, and the weather will do what it wants.

Edited January 19, 2013 by allenar

[Harsh Climate]

Huge ECM coming shortly. If it goes with GFS/UKMO I think we could be starring down the barrel.. If not that game on

[shotski]

Background signals would suggest height rises to our NW.

Sorry but what background signals ?

[SMU]

Ok let me reword it....

Not a bad cold spell spanning 6-10 days across the United kindom- however thats pretty much the general average for the MEAN of snow in january- IE 5/6 snow days or whatever the met office average is-

& in the context of winter so far- not all that great- although obviously some local variation with the snow depths.

As said though if the models do change & we continue to get some undercutting then great.

I think some estimates of the length of this cold spell have been a little OTT- is hasnt got 'really' cold until the first system from the North came through- However thats all IMBY.

the tell will be the CET at the end of the month.

Awaiting the ECM update.

S

Edited January 19, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Jezzer]

Off topic I know and may have been mentioned already. Just wanted to let you know that a programme on 1963 is now on BBC 2

[matty lfc]

People who say the gfs is "leading the way" in regard to the return of the Atlantic are slightly missing the point.

In nearly chart beyond day 5 this past fortnight,the gfs seems obsessed to bring in the Atlantic yet has to backtrack day after day.

It has genuine issues regarding how it handles blocking,imo.

Remember,even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[fluid dynamic]

A really interesting programme (1963 winter)

Havent seen much yet about what caused it, but I expect thats well documented.

The trains smashing through the drifts with their ploughs were amazing !

Be careful what you wish for folks !

If our chilly snap ends this week, I'll be very disappointed however.

Edited January 19, 2013 by fluid dynamic

[weather eater]

Well the GEM 12z looks like holding on to the cold for longer and even given that it stands alone I still wouldn't write off our chances of the spell continuing for longer yet, we have seen models lose the trail before, only to pick it up again, or it could be that any warm up will be brief as the PV is reshuffled,

I have to say I agree with Steve about this spell so far, though to be fair I guess it depends on what you are looking for. Personally, (and yes I've seen the pictures and videos from around the country) I was hoping for something a bit more severe, this seems to have been a pretty average cold snap so far, great if you like a few inches of snow in certain places but at 50 I’ve seen plenty enough of them over the years, for me to remain underwhelmed I'm also not taken in with the tedious media hype, they have made a mountain out of a mole hill, lets hope the snow tomorrow changes that at least for the SE and E

PS this is just my opinion no need to clutter up the thread trying to convince me otherwise.

Edited January 19, 2013 by weather eater

[shotski]

A really interesting programme (1963 winter)

Havent seen much yet about what caused it, but I expect thats well documented.

The trains smashing through the drifts with their ploughs were amazing !

Be careful what you wish for folks !

If our chilly snap ends this week, I'll be very disappointed however.

This may have had a large say in it.

[Tim Bland]

Sow event for the SW / central southern parts on Tues http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Uppers look ok. May be marginal for devon and Cornwall though.

Can someone post a link to the precip charts for ECM if they get a sec, keep meaning to save it

[Methuselah]

Ok let me reword it....

I think some estimates of the length of this cold spell have been a little OTT

S

Well said, that man!

[Panayiotis]

Sow event for the SW / central southern parts on Tues http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

Uppers look ok. May be marginal for devon and Cornwall though.

Can someone post a link to the precip charts for ECM if they get a sec, keep meaning to save it

They haven't updated yet http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=temp