Far North of England Regional Discussion - January 19th 2013>

[Alex95]

Now its hail, I can hear it rattling against the window!

[recklessabandon]

Now its hail, I can hear it rattling against the window!

Despite what the weather stations are saying I was in town all afternoon, and I did think it 'felt' a lot 'warmer' than it does in the outlying areas...so perhaps you need a good breeze to blow some of the 'warm' surface air away....or perhaps you all need to turn your heating off ????

[Alex95]

Stopped now. I still think it spells bad news for tomorrow unless the heavy precipitation can bring the temperature back down, I suppose the showers tonight are light.

[Steady Easterly]

Now its hail, I can hear it rattling against the window!

Are you sure its not the rentman.

[lizmartin1981]

Dp -2.6c currently, with a temp of 2.c. There has def been a thaw, but still a lot of snow cover. I am keeping everything crossed that we get snow, had a brilliant day sledging with the kids, wouldnt mind doing it again tomorrow.

[Dandy]

has the met upgraded our weather warnings?

Local authority's have upgraded the amount of salt they put down on each run.....and they don't like to waste salt.

[Freezing-Point]

Stopped now. I still think it spells bad news for tomorrow unless the heavy precipitation can bring the temperature back down, I suppose the showers tonight are light.

The heavy one at about 6.30pm yesterday brought the temp down from 1.2c to 0c here.....

[Isolated Frost]

Back home now, 0.9c/-1.8c.

NMM said 0c dew point at 6pm, NAE said -3c. Both seem to have opposite biases (NMM milder, it does initiate at GFS points, and NAE colder).

Split something in the middle and you say sleet/rain for the coastline, turning to wet snow at times. Snow further than 20 miles inland all day, 5-20 miles alternating sleet and snow unless you have some serious (>100m) elevation.

[Boro Snow]

hello keeley, sleet i reckon from that forecast for darlo

[recklessabandon]

well BBC news seem bullish on this being an all snow event apart from 'perhaps the coastal strip'...

[Alex95]

well BBC news seem bullish on this being an all snow event apart from 'perhaps the coastal strip'...

They were when forecasting the similar system in Feb 2009 and it wasn't even sleety, just heavy rain!

[NickR]

They were when forecasting the similar system in Feb 2009 and it wasn't even sleety, just heavy rain!

That one still smarts!... I just hope we don't get a memory to challenge it!

[recklessabandon]

They were when forecasting the similar system in Feb 2009 and it wasn't even sleety, just heavy rain!

Fair comment, wish I could remember how that ended up in Consett for comparison. I have to be honest, I do share some of your cynicism given what I have seen from GFS

[jennyifer]

Just been into town in the car 20min.s ago and it was defendant drizzle not sleet or snow stopped now in darlington.

[NickR]

It's been snow grains all day here when we've had showers.

[Alex95]

That one still smarts!... I just hope we don't get a memory to challenge it!

What made it worse was that the rest of the country kept the lying snow, so the media were still all hyped up on the 3rd, whilst here it was several degrees above freezing with puddles from the overnight rain.

[peterf]

marginal at present but will be snow as the temps fall away,which they are here now.

[Alex95]

Fair comment, wish I could remember how that ended up in Consett for comparison. I have to be honest, I do share some of your cynicism given what I have seen from GFS

Sleety rain if I remember correctly - you could probably search for the old thread if you want to be reminded of it. Tonight is much colder though, Consett will do well this time around.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Alza

[NickR]

What made it worse was that the rest of the country kept the lying snow, so the media were still all hyped up on the 3rd, whilst here it was several degrees above freezing with puddles from the overnight rain.

I seem to remember nipping up to Esh, which was only 2 minutes away, and seeing some slushy accumulations though.

Edited January 20, 2013 by NickR

[recklessabandon]

Sleety rain if I remember correctly - you could probably search for the old thread if you want to be reminded of it. Tonight is much colder though, Consett will do well this time around.

Its a memory that's probably best left to lie then, so I'll hear you on this one.

Far less meltwater on the roads today suggesting the inland areas have stayed colder throughout the day than yesterday, infact Medomsley Bank was very noticeable at around 16.30, it was nearly dry in places!!!

[Moor Driver]

The big mass looks like it is dissipating on Raintoday radar

[recklessabandon]

The big mass looks like it is dissipating on Raintoday radar

check out the METO scan:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/consett#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1358662500&zoom=8&lon=-1.83&lat=54.85

Its getting bigger all the time.....

[Isolated Frost]

For Sunderland, tomorrow

NAE: dew points (850s) [850-1000 thickness]

0000: -2c (-8c) [128-129]

0300: -1c (-7c) [128-129]

0600: -1c (-7c) [128-129]

0900: -1c (-8c) [128-129]

1200: -1c (-8c) [128-129]

1500: -1c (-7c) [128-129]

1800: -1c (-7c) [128-129]

2100: 0c (-7c) [128-129]

0000 Tues: 0c (-7c) [128-129]

0300 Tues: 0c (-7c) [128-129]

0600 Tues: -1c (-7c) [128-129]

0900 Tues: -1c (-8c) [128-129]

1200 Tues: -1c (-8c) [128-129]

NMM:

0000: 1c (-8c) [128.5-129]

0300: 2c (-7c) [129-129.5]

0600: 2c (-7c) [129-129.5]

0900: 2c (-7c) [129-129.5]

1200: 1c (-8c) [129-129.5]

1500: 1c (-8c) [128.5-129]

1800: 1c (-7c) [128.5-129]

2100: 1c (-6c) [129-129.5]

0000: 0c (-7c) [128.5-129]

0300: 1c (-7c) [128.5-129]

0600: 1c (-8c) [128.5-129]

0900: 1c (-8c) [128.5-129]

1200: 1c (-9c) [128.5-129]

Both would provide at least 20mm of precipitation to any part of the region, with 40-60mm on high ground around the Pennines.

Above is the NMM predicted precipitation values over the next 48 hrs.

NMM is also going for heavy sleet for most of the region, apart from the Pennines and surrounding areas, before everyone sees snow after 1700 tomorrow. Note NO rain is predicted on the NMM, so it'll be sleet/wet snow/snow for everywhere in the region.

Both modelling for a start around 0000 tonight, will be very fun to see the first reports dig in.

[NickR]

I'll admit.. I'm nervous. 2009 lives long in the memory. Once bitten...

[paul tall]

I'll admit.. I'm nervous. 2009 lives long in the memory. Once bitten...

It'll be snow. However I don't think we'll get that much.

Edited January 20, 2013 by paul tall