wales Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

[bradymk]

I think that too especially if we are under a northerly flow, im sure it will change as we get closed to the day.

Not to sure, i would say 6c is a more reasonable figure for cardiff for wednesday but it is not going to be cold (apart from wind chill). A good northerly flow however but surface temps will be 2-5c in northern england/NI/Scot, 4-7c south. Those are the maxes for the day though and frequent occurence of heavy wintry showers will keep temps surpressed. Also, during shower activity, temperatures may plummet from 6c to 2 or 3c for example. Looking at NAE values for thickness, DP and 850's, most showers will be snow tuesday morning for however accumulating snow will depend on time of day/altitude.

[keithlucky]

Worth looking at this link weather becomes interesting Tuesday http://www.myweather...er.aspx?synop=2

[J10]

The conditions for Tuesday morning (NAE) look almost identical to this mornings runs,

However the conditions for Wednesday morning are now not as good. There were always indications that for Wednesday things could be a bit more marginal, models other than GFS have always resisted bringing the colder uppers in, but now the GFS 12Hz indicates 850HPa close to -5c rather than -6c/7c (06Hz). Thicknesses are still sub 528, so potential remains , it will be interesting to see what NAE says when this comes into range.

The reason for the change on the GFS is the low pressure to the east of England being further west on the 12Hz compared to the 06Hz, would like this trend reversed please.

For us an ideal scenario would be Tuesday's temps thicknesses etc with Wednesday's wind direction.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Jackone

[Panayiotis]

Snow warning now brought further south, expect this to drop further tonight/tomorrow..

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[snefnug]

Me confused! BBC vid earlier - Tuesday = snow. Meto Tuesday = snow. Now no snow! Come on, 'fess up, who has nicked it?

[foggybrynna]

BBC Wales weather showed no snow up and weds. Wot do you guys think

[J10]

BBC Wales weather showed no snow up and weds. Wot do you guys think

People have already given their opinion earlier in the thread to be fair.

[foggybrynna]

Andymusic said here it comes + others say its not going to get as far as us

[Marcus_surfer]

Tuesday morning still looks interesting, dew points, upper temps, wind direction, possible pembroke dangler in place too all favourable at least for a time, giving hail, sleet/snow showers in places. Could give a quick covering before turning slightly milder by afternoon before winds turn more northerly and cut off most of the showers but still keep going on windward coasts.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Marcus_surfer

[lindy2017]

BBC Wales weather showed no snow up and weds. Wot do you guys think

They dont have a clue ...............

[andymusic]

POTENTIAL IS AWESOME - STOP FRETTING PLEASE

Edited February 3, 2013 by andymusic

[J10]

Tuesday morning still looks interesting, dew points, upper temps, wind direction, possible pembroke dangler in place too all favourable at least for a time, giving hail, sleet/snow showers in places. Could give a quick covering before turning slightly milder by afternoon before winds turn more northerly and cut off most of the showers but still keep going on windward coasts.

To me predominately snow showers (possibly away from direct windward coasts) at least overnight in Tuesday until lunchtime, thereafter less wintry for a time, but still snow on hills, to me still a bit of uncertainty for the snow potential on Wednesday.

Quite a lot of showery potential from these troughs.

As for settling snow that is a tough one, normally snow showers come from NNW winds not WNW winds. To have such low thicknesses on such a pattern is very unusual and that makes historical comparison very tricky.

I would be more confident in terms of this if the Met Office were to issue a weather watch for us tomorrow.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Jackone

[keithlucky]

POTENTIAL IS AWESOME - STOP FRETTING PLEASE

Exactly this week got great potential plenty of convection and streamers forming in a unstable airflow especially when wind switches to a N Westerly Tuesday opportunities galore as potent showers hit land looks great!Yes Jackone a pretty cold for a westerly flow. Edited February 3, 2013 by keithlucky

[bradymk]

POTENTIAL IS AWESOME - STOP FRETTING PLEASE

Snow showers early hours tuesday till around midday but accumulating snowfall is unlikely for most although you may be ok in ponty! Wednesday for me is a tough one,i would say wintry showers and these more of a wintry mix (hail, sleet, rain, snow, the lot) on wednesday with the focus being for mainly western areas. Like Jackone said, unusually low thickness and uppers from a WNW flow. I think most will see some snow showers but most wont see any accumulations. It will be very cold when the windchill is added. temps of 5/6c tuesday and wednesday but these dropping a lot during heavy showery periods.

[Panayiotis]

To me predominately snow showers (possibly away from direct windward coasts) at least overnight in Tuesday until lunchtime, thereafter less wintry for a time, but still snow on hills, to me still a bit of uncertainty for the snow potential on Wednesday.

Quite a lot of showery potential from these troughs.

As for settling snow that is a tough one, normally snow showers come from NNW winds not WNW winds. To have such low thicknesses on such a pattern is very unusual and that makes historical comparison very tricky.

I would be more confident in terms of this if the Met Office were to issue a weather watch for us tomorrow.

Especially the 48hrs chart, it shows a trough in front of the occluded front, and the 528dam line covering us, those showers should be heavy/moderate and they should be snow, with the trough in front of the occluded front this gives more ppn which hopefully should accumulate to something.... Edited February 3, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Jayfromcardiff]

Countryfile forecast looked decent for tomorrow night and into the early hours of tuesday! i think some of us could see a covering of snow. Unsure on amounts of course but maybe a few cm.

[keithlucky]

Snow showers early hours tuesday till around midday but accumulating snowfall is unlikely for most although you may be ok in ponty! Wednesday for me is a tough one,i would say wintry showers and these more of a wintry mix (hail, sleet, rain, snow, the lot) on wednesday with the focus being for mainly western areas. Like Jackone said, unusually low thickness and uppers from a WNW flow. I think most will see some snow showers but most wont see any accumulations. It will be very cold when the windchill is added. temps of 5/6c tuesday and wednesday but these dropping a lot during heavy showery periods.

I do believe we will see a covering overnight Tuesday into Wednesday any were showers are potent enough to drive dew points down.

[andymusic]

Looking into the next few weeks and the cold will be right over us - loads more snow and cold to come - this could be a snowfest to end all snowfests - now then - who wants to buy a snowmobile? LOL

Edited February 3, 2013 by andymusic

[snefnug]

Meto snowflakes back for Tuesday. Presumably the icon forecast is linked to models? Therefore changes faster than Rihanna's hairstyly?

[TonyH]

ECM has been suggesting battleground snow for several runs now next weekend, this is the best so far:

[J10]

ECM has been suggesting battleground snow for several runs now next weekend, this is the best so far:

In a way this reminds me of the run up to Friday 18th Jan, not convinced about a potential Easterly but some sort of snow event, via a slider low is possible. Interesting to see if ECM or GFS is right on this one.

--------

NAE 18Hz is out and virtually no change for Tuesday morning. The milder uppers push in as forecast for the afternoon, but how quickly does the cold air push back in from the north, in time for Wednesday morning?

Edited February 3, 2013 by Jackone

[Uncle Gargy]

Send it East, when you've finished with it please

[Panayiotis]

We now have the GFS on board with the ECM should be an interesting couple of weeks for us! Few tweaks here and there, and there is the possibility of some big events, especially this weekend!

Edited February 3, 2013 by Panayiotis

[J10]

We now have the GFS on board with the ECM should be an interesting couple of weeks for us! Few tweaks here and there, and there is the possibility of some big events, especially this weekend!

I think the MOD thread have jumped to conclusions too soon, GFS has certainly edged to ECM, but if tomorrow continues this trend, then we can get excited. I do think a cold start of Feb is likely if nothing else.

[blackrose73]

Everyone's gone mad in the model thread - going on about fish all the time lol