WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013

[SMU]

It shows how times have changed, not more than 5 years ago, such synoptics were grabbed by both hands by cold and snow lovers who would then ramp it up. Winter 2009-10 and December 2010, seems to have to change the taste of winter synoptics.

I keep posting the met office averages for snow falling for Feb & for England its around 4-6 days.That should be our expectation- with north england & scotland nearer 10.S

Steve,

Surely the ECM at 240 at least wets your whistle?

Not really- cold rain for most. Snow for Scotland & some in the NW-- however its been at day 10 for days now..S

[Gibby]

Good morning everyone. Here is this morning's look at the 00z output from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Wednesday January 30th 2013.

All models show a similar outcome to the weather between now and the beginning of next week. Today all models show a somewhat showery Westerly flow as Low pressure exits the North taking the strongest of the winds away North with it. Tomorrow shows a showery trough moving East over Britain accentuating the showers before the weather quietens down late tomorrow and becomes somewhat colder in the North. On Friday a new Low develops as it crosses Southern Britain bringing rain to all of the South before bringing a blast of cold Northerly winds in its wake with wintry showers, especially in the East on Saturday. By Sunday the Northerly flow is shown to back Westerly as a warm front brings less cold conditions with some rain back across the UK on Sunday from the West. Early next week looks like a WNW flow will blow over the UK with the pressure gradient steepening over the UK as a deep Low lies to the NW over Iceland. The weather would be rather cloudy and increasingly windy at this point with temperatures close to normal for early February.

GFS then shows the Low sinking SE down the North Sea with another very cold blast of Northerly winds and snow showers especially in the Northwest, North and East later with the driest and least wintry conditions expected in the SW. Through the end of the week and weekend a backing of the flow towards the West once more occurs with the wintry conditions moderating as milder air slowly infiltrates from the West accompanied by a little rain or sleet as it does. Then after another flirt with a cold NW flow in the North High pressure develops from mid Atlantic across the UK towards Scandinavia settling things down slowly with cloud and any precipitation dissolving with frosty nights and decent enough days setting in by the end of the run.

The GFS Ensembles show a couple of colder bursts as we move into the weekend and again next week in an otherwise fairly average set of ensembles both for UK locations and over Europe. There will be less in the way of precipitation than recently over the South and West of Britain in particular. With most members showing winds from a NW quadrant for most of the time there will be showers about and these will be wintry at times though widespread snowfall with these temperature profiles look unlikely in the 00z period.

The Jet Stream shows the flow still programmed to ride over the displaced Azores High over the coming period and then steering the flow South over the UK and down into Southern Europe.

UKMO for midnight next Tuesday shows Low pressure over Iceland and High pressure well to the SW of Britain. A strengthening WNW flow is shown with a broad warm sector over the UK at this time with rather cloudy and breezy conditions, perhaps with a little rain. A cold front lies to the NW poised to bring a change to colder weather with Wintry showers in the period that follows the expiry of the run.

GEM today shows a similar NW flow with a tendency to bring colder and colder conditions across the UK as successive depressions move SE to the NE of the UK and eventually over and to the SE of Britain setting up an eventual cold NE wind with snow showers fr many, especially in the East with High pressure ridged NE from mid Atlantic towards Iceland at the close of the run sustaining cold onwards for a time.

ECM today shows a cold back half to next week too bringing several pushes South of cold air in association with SE moving depressions to the NE of the UK. It will deliver sleet or snow showers to many Northern and Eastern areas with the best of the drier and less wintry conditions the further SW one travels though even here some rain or sleet could occur at times as slider disturbances could run South close to the West Coast in this situation at times.

In Summary there is good agreement on a mid Atlantic High setting up with Low pressure over Europe bringing cold weather with wintry showers at times as we move into next week. What happens longer term is determined by whether we see a push North of the Azores High to more Northern latitudes increasing the longevity of the colder synoptics or whether we see a relaxing of the High to the SW and milder Atlantic air winning back. The most important thing which is easy but important to overlook is the fact that things will become less wet generally especially for Southern and Western areas and with a good drying breeze likely for large chunks of time flooded areas of the SW will have a chance to dry out somewhat.

[winterof79]

Just to echo what's been said this morning. Steve M summed it up nicely with a measured post.

Still chasing shadows 10 days away as we have been for the last few days.

A few more uk high sinkers in the ensembles this morning. That is usually the end game with this pattern as the northern arm eventually flattens the AZH.

Still some decent ensembles but nothing convincing.

Will be a wild few days in the near term and somewhere in England with a little elevation might get lucky to the NW of London.

Jason

All of Feb to go and you are quoting "end game" love it.It was the same in early Jan http://modeles.meteo...3010100-0-6.png

Then 15 days, and a lot of winters had it posts,later http://modeles.meteo...3011500-0-6.png

Lets chat at the end of Feb

EDIT:Actually the first chart looks similar to what we are about to see http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

Edited January 30, 2013 by winterof79

[That ECM]

Morning-

Nothing spectacular this morning - the pattern exactly as expected one cold low after another sliding SE across the UK, cool interpersed with milder & colder days.

The cold never really gets embedded & never any ridging to greenland.

I remember these patterns in the last 10 years- you will forever be chasing that greenland ridge & in reality it never comes.

What we do have is some transient cold shots which are getting tweaked here & there & indeed have been slightly upgraded in the past 36 hours, with troughs in the flow curving around the UK from the north west.-

Cold rain for the south & most of England infact, however looks good on a few days for Scotland, NI & the North west.

One thing I recall from these outputs is that nearer the time they are usually slightly flatter & the parent low is slightly further east-

Lets hope its not the case this week for some as it will be another week frittered away.

In summary, nothing especially cold, medicore synoptics, no high level blocking- but some interim cold & snow to keep some of the punters happy.....

S

Interesting summary and the first line off your post tells a story I feel. Nothing spectacular. If we are looking at the output hoping to see the spectacular, then on most occasions disappointment will be the outcome. Spectacular can only be if it is different from the norm.

Your summary as usual is spot on. The problem being is that people will read what you have posted and conclude winter is over and this is not the case. As you have suggested some favoured areas will get something akin to winter. Not IMBY for many at this time but flat and zonal it isn't. Not that you are suggesting this but some are.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yet again folks demanding super cold and blocked synoptics overnight and because it hasn't happened the posts of I afraid this, I'm afraid that, pattern too flat this, GHP won't happen that.

Well several days ago we had zonal express throughout, now we have more interest and we ain't likely to get a chance of deep cold thrust until say 10th onwards, thats the timing of strongest retrgrade signal, and ECM, GFS show pressure building to our E/NE backing west. Movements are afoot, forget Greenalnd for timebeing its not necessary...that is needed to prolong cold...let's get it first...and I for one continue being quite satisfied as my expectations have been that this week is a gonna, next week is improving and building and IF it comes, it will be colder than Feb 2005.

Lower short term/immediate expectations, look at chart improvement and what's developing...no guarantees but our chances are building.

BFTP

[winterof79]

At 144 it is pretty much a cert that there will be a polar N/W,which would bring wintry weather to Northern Britain driven on by a strong wind

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021 cold with it http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=0&map=1&archive=0

After this lets see if the heights dig into Europe,as some of the models are heading that way by 240 and see if a scandi high builds.

[Jason M]

All of Feb to go and you are quoting "end game" love it.It was the same in early Jan http://modeles.meteo...3010100-0-6.png

Then 15 days, and a lot of winters had it posts,later http://modeles.meteo...3011500-0-6.png

Lets chat at the end of Feb

EDIT:Actually the first chart looks similar to what we are about to see http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

Er, no. I actually said 'that is usually the end game with this pattern'. More often than not the high settles over the UK as it declines with a return to zonal as it declines. If you want some examples look through the ensembles.

Will this happen here? thats yet to be decided but its the obv form horse. Even if that did happen, that still leaves the 2nd half of Feb.

Jason

[nick sussex]

Not much change this morning, the Azores high remains the driver of the weather, where it goes will determine what the UK gets in terms of wintry potential.

Where you live will determine your view of the output, so further north and in N/Ireland, Ireland and Scotland theres alot to keep you interested. With a bit of elevation an added bonus.

Further south less so but still with a chance of some more transient snowfall, the problem remains the cold really never gets a chance to get embedded with a constant stream of lows heading around the periphery of the Azores high.

I think we have to be realistic in that theres no sign of a Greenland high, so that avenue to deeper cold is unavailable, so the best we can make out of the pattern is perhaps the Azores high displacing a little further west, with weakened energy out of the ne USA then shortwaves could track more favourably into the UK, so that some might avoid those milder sectors.

An outside chance of the Azores high getting far enough north to then topple more favourably to develop a colder ne flow on the southern flank, although again unlikely to be sustained.

We have to be aware though of model bias in these situations with them historically more likely to edge the pattern further east, so best to not take the 850's at T144hrs at face value.

I think our best chance of tapping some deeper cold without the Greenland high is to get a small wedge of high pressure to the ne and that IMO still looks less of a leap of faith than a Greenland high showing up within the next two weeks.

Overall then a mixed bag going forward, some wintry potential interspersed with milder interludes, its not the best output but equally I've seen a lot worse, if you're looking for ice days and crisp snow then you're going to be disappointed, if you're happy to at least see some snow falling and if you live further north with a bit of elevation then more enjoyable.

In the shorter term still a chance of some backedge snow at the weekend, the UKMO fax chart shows that occlusion clearing the se with a good undercut of colder air. Also a chance of some snow showers before the ridge moves in later then milder for a time before a strong cold nw flow sets in.

[TEITS]

Surprised at some of the interpretation of the models because the outlook is far from certain and whilst the output has been consistent recently, that isn't the case today.

I shall begin with a rather negative comment with regards to the GFS. The 0Z run was way milder than the mean as it doesn't develop the NW/N,ly outbreak and keeps a rather boring W,ly. The GEFS control also shows the same.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130130/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

This at the moment has no support from the other models. If we look at the GEM the LP pushes S of the UK and as a result with see cold E,lys.

As for the ECM and I quiet like it this morning. A NW,ly followed by a N,ly which would become a NE,ly at +264.

So whilst I understand where Steve M is coming from with regards to no blocking to our N im rather more positive about the outlook. If you take an overall picture of the models then the output suggests what I have been saying i.e a NW,ly veering N then NE,ly. We might not be looking at mega cold upper temps or a 1060mb GH but there is enough in the output to suggest snowfall for many locations. The only difference being is the S & SE would have to wait longer for the winds to veer NE,ly.

[Jason M]

Who's chasing shadows? You seem to be. I can see snow three days away and the pattern for next week is far from set. All to play for as far as I can see. It's my observations that the early morning posters seem to look for a 63/47 whereas the later posters seem to give a more measured outlook.

If you can see snow for 3 days away, I say good luck with that . I see cold rain with sleet. If you live on high ground you may get lucky, if like 90% of the population you don't then I wish you luck!

I'm not looking for 1963 but equally I'm not in denial. The uppers on most of the charts are Atlantic sourced and in the -4 to -6 range. The cold is not imbedded either. This is very different from the upper temp profile of the last cold spell. Will people see snow falling from the sky next week? maybe. Will most be taking the kids out sledging next week, No!!

Several of the ensembles still show a decent cold spell that would deliver, but most do not.

I'm all for people having contrary views, but I'd say that my and Steve M's posts this morning are realistic based on current output and experience. The proof as always will be in the eating and things can and do change.

Jason

[carinthian]

Wow ,some posts this morning not providing an appetite for the up and coming spell of colder weather. A normal January scenario would be a Euro High over Austria providing soft waft of Atlantic airmasses into the UK. Not for much of this month, we started that way, followed by a cold block that produced widespread snow if not intense cold. A wild spell now to be followed by a likelyhood of a development of a mid Atlantic block. Its not exactly a omega block but has potential to produce some cold snowy weather as we move into February. I feel quite up beat about the rest of the winter, particularly here in Austria, as these longer term charts are forecasting a snow feast. I have a feeling that the UK will have some of the action soon. I say NO to Euro High and the charts are presently exciting !

C

[Summer Sun]

Steve,

Surely the ECM at 240 at least wets your whistle?

The fact that it's 10 days away means it isn't really going to get much attention by tonight it will most likely be showing something completely different

Looking at the ensembles and the most important thing from then again this morning is it turns significantly drier during the first half of February

[winterof79]

If you can see snow for 3 days away, I say good luck with that . I see cold rain with sleet. If you live on high ground you may get lucky, if like 90% of the population you don't then I wish you luck!

I'm not looking for 1963 but equally I'm not in denial. The uppers on most of the charts are Atlantic sourced and in the -4 to -6 range. The cold is not imbedded either. This is very different from the upper temp profile of the last cold spell. Will people see snow falling from the sky next week? maybe. Will most be taking the kids out sledging next week, No!!

Several of the ensembles still show a decent cold spell that would deliver, but most do not.

I'm all for people having contrary views, but I'd say that my and Steve M's posts this morning are realistic based on current output and experience. The proof as always will be in the eating and things can and do change.

Jason

This set up would bring snow to many northern parts http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=1

And as the low heights sink s/e it would also be interesting http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=1

As for the 3 day away snow the s/e may get lucky http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif?29-0 but the track is progged differently on other models

[Hotspur62]

Just looked at GFS and as others have said no real change there for last 5 or 6 runs so certainly cooler than last couple of days with snow for some Midlands Northwards from weekend with Scottish Ski resorts doing quite well which is good news for them.Thereafter it's a case of which model do you want to be right.For cold lovers,you are wanting GEM and ECM to be right as there is more potential for a more prolonged cold spell.If cold is not your thing,then stay with GFS as AH will ensure no real cold is coming to UK.Just my view,but i feel that over last 36hrs the chances of a GH are slowly diminishing and i feel the chance of another Scandi High are increasing slightly,From an IMBY i would prefer the latter as it would enhance snow prospects for the SE.Situation is very delicately poised and still don't think we will be any the wiser until at least tomorrow night.Come on GFS,get the AH moving Northwards and more Westwards in future runs!!

[frosty ground]

I am surprised at some of the comments regarding the current output........ Low pressure is set to continue to sink south east across the British Isles with high pressure to the west, which will lead to a polar maritime north westerly flow, the ECM shows the high out west pull back further west allowing the mixing out of any mild sectors.

A run of below average temperatures and the possibilities of snow for many is certainly on the cards. Of course the further south and east you are the less the impact of the cold and chances of snow. When any mild sectors sink south with the next Low pressure those to the west may have snow to rain to snow events, the lucky minority (depending on the track) would have snow all the way...... But it is way too early for specifics.

If your after Dec 2010 or an Easterly unlucky!

[MR EXTREMES]

watch and see i think the models are developing very well as i suggest yesterday morning azores high then low heights zipping through but later in fi every model has the same kind of solution theres a lull in the alantic onslaught and a renewed heights then build behind pushing heights up futher north.

we still need a little help and a push west of the canadian vortex but its heading in the right direction the gfs northerly northeastly last more than just 12 hours looking more like a few day event, couple that with low heights to our east its game on.

i think there are few suprises ahead but what i have noticed that the low pressure systems being spawned by the canadian vortex a rather nasty id say more powerful than they been all winter infact if you talk about alantic storms this has been the most active for sometime. in my opion.

keep the faith but to be honest no winter really is ever the same give it a couple more days then were see where we are heading in the weather world still need to see were the vortex is heading but clear consistent runs showing azores heights alantic height futher on.

[TEITS]

Can't really grumble at these ECM ensembles.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

I can however understand some of the frustration though especially with regards to this winter so far. At first we had the Dec E,ly fiasco which was a real kick in the teeth. The real disappointment though is I don't think I have ever known a winter where the models have been so reluctant to predict a Greenland HP. Even during some of the poorest winters the GFS/GEFS would give you some mega GH in distant FI. Now considering this and GPs forecast which was dominated by a GH throughout the winter months then I can understand the frustration.

[chris55]

Overall some great weather to come in the next few weeks, never really mild, often cold with snow opportunities for most, and a good overall cooling trend in the more extended range. ECM ens highlight this well.

Disturbed and the mean hoovering around 0c, plenty of snow just to our east!!

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

We also have Fridays potential Low, a strong north-westerly at the start of next week (a similar pattern delivered snow Xmas day 2004) and plenty of winds from the north. Nice.

[Tom Montalbano]

Interesting Faxes for 00z/12z Sat.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax84s.gif

A few days after the 10 year anniversary of the M11 gridlock fiasco.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00120030130.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00120030131.gif

Certainly something to keep an eye, not expecting an event like 2003 but could see wintry/snow showers along East coast counties in the early hours of Sat. morning, enough to give a covering in places, esp. over high ground.

Regards,

Tom.

[SomeLikeItHot]

GFS 6z seems to end nicely doesn't it, highs in Greenland, mid atlantic, and HP pushing down into Scandi with northerlies looking to turn to easterlies as the low moves away from scandi. Gets there for the last few frames also, not just in the last one.

FI but nice to see its possible.

Edited January 30, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[bluearmy]

reposted with the 'offending sentence removed'. (are you serious ? who on earth thought this post should be moved to the mayhem thread and that it wasnt model related?)

the 00z gefs are trending colder after yesterday's hiccups. looking at the variance in solutions, i would say they are pretty clueless in week 2 anyway. ecm moves step by step towards a cold solution. the spread is quite low in its latter stages and all to our west whilst the cold sceuro trough is solid. maybe some people had an expectation of proper cold and snow next week. that can be the only explanation for some of the posts. i would urge most of you to follow ecm at the moment. its been rock solid on its consistency over the past few days. the model seems keen to evacuate the worst of the vortex from eastern canada as its suite progresses. still thinking that a cut off euro trough is the most likely solution for the second half of week 2. where the atlantic ridge and other higher heights position themselves will dictate the amount of CAA and its depth.

[Frosty.]

I was concerned that the Gfs 06z was going to go as pear shaped as the 00z but then it totally went cold crazy from the northeast, I would still like to see the displaced azores high further west next week and ridging north and the gfs still has the high further east and just for a while the pattern becomes flat and milder but then produces a dec 2010 type spectacular end to FI.

Next week does now look like being rather cold or cold and unsettled with wintry showers and longer spells of rain, sleet and snow, the snow threat highest on hills (especially northern hills) a strong blast of polar maritime air which then switches to arctic, the ecm 00z prolongs the arctic type pattern with the Azores High displaced further west but the gfs takes us on a more dangerous route with a complete mixing out of the cold uppers before producing an epic finale.

Edited January 30, 2013 by Frosty039

[phil nw.]

Yes i suppose living in the UK we always tend to view the model runs with hope rather than expectation when looking for cold and snow.

The next 2 weeks is not what we call a classic cold setup with a solid block of high pressure up north but it could improve from the current projected North Westerly pattern.

We can see short cold snaps with snowfall for some,especially the further north you are and i would think the Scottish Ski industry will be very happy with this.

The Euro trough becoming cutoff with weak heights over the top is one way to bring even colder conditions to the UK or indeed that Atlantic high regressing further west which would bring longer incursions of cold from the north.

The mean 850hPa profiles at day 8 are not too shabby.

There`s plenty of cold air around even in this pattern and at least we are better placed for something even colder from that than in a normal Atlantic setup.

[TEITS]

I was concerned that the Gfs 06z was going to go as pear shaped as the 00z but then it totally went cold crazy from the northeast, I would still like to see the displaced azores high further west next week and ridging north and the gfs still has the high further east and just for a while the pattern becomes flat and milder but then produces a dec 2010 type spectacular end to FI.

Yes quiet odd at the moment because the 0Z GFS/GEFS control we very much milder than the mean and yet the 06Z follows suit.

What I have found in the past in these situations is the GFS predicts mega cold N,lys which become weaker as this moves into +72 because the main thrust of cold ends up moving E into Holland, Belgium, Germany. The GFS now seems to be moving away from a second NW,ly blast around the +240 period as we see a spell of W,lys instead. The ECM remains consistent with N/NW/NE,lys.

The area I highlighted last night in my drawings continues to be a pain because its this area the models differ. The GFS takes more energy E whereas the ECM takes this N up the W side of Greenland although some energy does move E in the form of another LP. Until the Greenland/Baffin Island region is modelled correctly then I feel members shouldn't be excited or disappointed. The outlook could easily change although im sticking with my prediction.

Edited January 30, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Alexis]

Still a fine line between cold rain and something decent on the charts at the moment. Odd how the weather works - this setup did very well for some people back in 2004: http://www.wetterzen...00120041225.gif

Yet the 850's weren't spectacular: http://www.wetterzen...00220041225.gif

Edited January 30, 2013 by Alexis