Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards

[Rocheydub]

Can I point out what happened in December when even they were fooled into thinking that the beast from the east was coming and one model showed it not happening at all?? So why can't it be the same but the other way round where the models are showing a toperler when the ECM is showing the freezer and then the models then realise the ECM has got it right and backtrack??

And from a bloke that regularly looks for reviews of what the charts are showing??? Seriously???

[weather eater]

Yee of no faith. Trust the ECM. Trust the people who have seen the GFS since 2000.

Even the 18z NOGAPS >PWNT the GFS.

S

At 144hrs plus I have no faith in either, that may not be brave or popular but based on the experience of the best part of a decade it’s a sounder call.

[Continental Climate]

Because no other model is agreeing with it, including the proffesionals/Met Office.

As For Feb, it seems the Azore Highs going to scupper any cold, which would bring us an average/mild February.

you've just written off a whole month based on a couple of dodgy GFS runs and i would say the ukmo is pretty decent. I predict a major backtrack from GFS over next couple of days, it is a pants model

[Barry12]

Maybe Snowballz can give us some Scientific insight into the current NWP's, will be interesting to see her thoughts on this current prediciment we find ourselves in. The relative prominent ECM is on it's own, but the relative failworthy GFS may indeed be correct in this instance.

Edited February 2, 2013 by Barry95

[Zenarcher]

Of course the term ''Snow Hurricane'' is over dramatic choice of words for Monday and Tuesday next week as the Met Office say in their weather warnings for Scotland strong winds will affect a large area mainly the North and West with gusts of 70mph likely with heavy showers likely to turn to sleet or snow and blizzard conditions likely over higher ground, so yes very strong winds and a likely sight of wintry weather for Scotland but in no way a ''Snow Hurricane''.

As for the ECM and GFS battle we are at that timeframe where big changes can still happen yes the ECM's run this evening is great but as history tells us not to get your hopes up just yet or you may lead yourself to disappointment later, just take note of it for now.

[damianslaw]

As I said in my previous post - all eyes should be on the position of the trough as it moves into scandi next Thursday - at this stage it is too early to call where it will eventually position itself, but where it does will determine the outlook, a southerly digging trough will enable strong heights to build to the NE and we have the ECM evolution, a more easterly positioned trough = GFS. I never underestimate the influence of height rises to our NE during February, unlike December and January they often win out against what traditionally at this time of year is an ever weakened atlantic - this is not the case during the earlier stages of winter.

The GFS is notoriously poor when it comes to the power of heights to our NE and usually defaults to the toppler scenario... indeed it has a default position of the atlantic winning the battle throughout the course of the year, even when we are in the midst of heatwave in the summer it suddenly barrels in an atlantic low....

[Mair Snaw]

you've just written off a whole month based on a couple of dodgy GFS runs and i would say the ukmo is pretty decent. I predict a major backtrack from GFS over next couple of days, it is a pants model

Lets face it a few years ago the GFS runs of recent would have had this place in meltdown, so to totally write off the rest of winter when we have so much time left is madness, only a week ago the models were screaming Zonal and look how far we have come from them charts. i do think the ECM will at some stage over the next few runs pull back from todays a little with a middle ground from the big 3 being the end result.

[Barry12]

No ~ RJS never said record cold on Tuesday; look at his detailed forecast and start judgement no earlier than next weekend by which (10th-20th Feb is the timeframe)time the models could well be painting an entirely different picture and he expected it to be a progressive cold regime. Can't judge the man before his forecast has even arrived!!!

He did say 'near record breaking cold in February', if he's right he deserves a knighthood.

If he's wrong, he needs to take a cold shower and go back to the drawing boards.

Edited February 2, 2013 by Barry95

[Tom Montalbano]

Just want to post up those latest charts again for t120 from 18z GFS, 12z ECM and FAX.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

I'd like to make a couple of points. Its pretty obvious that the ECM chart and the FAX are much closer to each other than the GFS chart at that timescale. We've also been told by our source from the Met Office that they dont pay much attention to the GFS model and also they dont give too much credence to any model past t144/t168.

Regards,

Tom.

[legritter]

A fantastic modell Discussion tonight gang but i can see a gun fight looming .tomorrow we will be nearer the end ,more up to date information a new ECM run two more GFSruns come mid day ,met office update and faxes ,and the forecasted monday to friday cold spell with some SNOW yes snow nearly on us .im off to bed to dream of the front arriving next fri/sat and get it at the right angle of attack ,anyone else doing the same ,catch up with you all tomorrow EDIT later today .

[ZONE 51]

Here is an interesting chart

GFS 18z surface pressure+850s for Tuesday 1800hrs

The chart indicates freezing conditions across all areas

deep north north sea low pressure pulling in freezing winds+snow

dew points below freezing and surface temps very cold with very strong winds

surface winds 10m

Where gets this combination of low dew points/surface temps/very strong winds/snow is likely to get blizzard conditions

A wintry week next week.

Edited February 3, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[lord stratus]

Here is an interesting chart

GFS 18z surface pressure+850s for Tuesday 1800hrs

The chart indicates freezing conditions across all areas

deep north north sea low pressure pulling in freezing winds+snow

dew points below freezing and surface temps very cold with very strong winds

surface winds 10m

Where gets this combination of low dew points/surface temps/very strong winds/snow is likely to get blizzard conditions

A wintry week next week.

Wintry showers north facing coastal areas, mainly dry elsewhere. Night time temps 0c to -3c nationwide, day time temps 0c in far north, 5c to

6c further south. Rather breezy.

[Bonjangle]

Sheesh , just got onboard reading back to all posts and i have a bad headache now .

Up and down here like a rollercoaster the models will look and prevail the outcome soon , dont forget they are computer not Human !

[Guest bjaykent]

Wintry showers north facing coastal areas, mainly dry elsewhere. Night time temps 0c to -3c nationwide, day time temps 0c in far north, 5c to

6c further south. Rather breezy.

With the strength of that wind and possible troughs associated with that low pressure doesn't look like just wintry showers to north facing coasts to me and probably colder than you suggest in the south looking a fax chart

[Weather Monkey]

He did say 'near record breaking cold in February', if he's right he deserves a knighthood.

If he's wrong, he needs to take a cold shower and go back to the drawing boards.

RJS said

This looks exceptionally promising for severe cold by the middle third of February.The dive-bombing low on Tuesday will turn into a wintry hurricane for northern regions of the UK and in itself is a major severe weather event, but after a couple of days it will reach a position over central Europe that will allow a retrograde cycle just showing signs of life now to develop gradually and feed the coldest Siberian air west across northern Russia into Scandinavia.I think there will be near-record cold in mid-February and that means daily means in the -5 to -10 C range, so a very severe frost and with a northeast flow there may be heavy snowfalls even without any organized low pressure, but this winter also has shown a tendency to storminess so I have the feeling once this very cold air starts moving in, there could be epic snowfalls with it

When other members dare to make a forecast rather than being dismissed it may be worth holding fire or at least offering something constructive. He could be wrong but the record cold is in deep FI so is a moot point with model disagreements in the near term let alone so far out. I hope he's right but no one knows.

Hurricaine is impossible as they are by definition tropical but the winds in the Met Office warning are gusting to hurricane strength - forecast as frequently 60-70mph or 80+ . Poor choice of words by RJS maybe and I'm sure he will place caveats in future.

As for the models I see a fair degree of difference at t72-96 (5-6th) on the London ENS with 6-7c difference (last image) so I would be wary of inferring too much yet. As is often said get the cold in first. I'm just glad to have had a clear day and nice frost with more in the offing after a mucky grey week.

Top 18z middle from weatherweb.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Weather Monkey

[minus86BriJ]

Weather monkey

"Hurricaine is impossible as they are by definition tropical but the winds in the Met Office warning are gusting to hurricane strength - forecast as frequently 60-70mph or 80+ . Poor choice of words by RJS maybe and I'm sure he will place caveats in future"

Im pretty sure RJS knows the definition of the word hurricane. He was obviously refering to relative wind strength. I just looked up the word pedantic myself....

Anyway ECM looks interesting and the general trend has being ebbing towards cold over the last couple of days in the models.

[Barry12]

It is baffling why a respected member would state that when we don't even know how the next 5 days will pan out, what is he basing the 'near record cold on', please don't tell me it's based on FI. GP has never said anything about severe cold..

Not wanting to sound harsh, but if he get's this wrong he will look like a fool.

[Timmytour]

The Eye In The Sky, on 29 January 2013 - 10:30 , said

Timmytour, on 29 January 2013 - 10:26 , said:

T165 come on Scandi low....start falling down the North Sea!

Won't happen.

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-180.png?6

Whats going to happen next is another LP will move E and bring another NW/N,ly attack around +240

TEITS.... i do believe that Scandi low at T165 back then has turned out to be the "snow hurricane"

Back then it wasn't coming down the North Sea, but it was primed in position. It's one reason I have a higher confidence in the GFS evolution than i do the ECM. Granted the GFS has been gradually changing over the past few runs to the point where its evolution, especially with the 0z is none too bad, so were it to verify in its present modelling, it would be no bad thing...although don't think it's bringing us the potent easterly of the ECM

The ECM strikes me as one of those Easterlies that gets models and frequently fails, only to eventually turn up later. If it does eventually turn up it may have lost a little of the potency it would have carried at this time of year.. The GFS has been slow in moving things east. It's got there, and i think it's arrived there in what will come close to ultimately verifying.

[Beaufort12]

Whats the latest gfs guys

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GFS 0z looks better this morning but there is just too much umph in that god damn Atlantic to allow the floodgates to open up from the east.

Less said about ukmo the better!

[Mucka]

Yeah UKMO isn't great but GFS has taken another big step toward ECM this morning and the mild bump in the ensembles where the ridge moved over the UK has largely been ironed out so it isn't just the natural variation in the Op.

Despite the UKMO I would say we have taken another step toward cold from the East/Northeast this morning but ECM still to come of course.

Of the lesser models GEM is awful but it has been performing terribly lately and NOGAPS is excellent.

I should say though that GFS ensembles are still long way from the last 2 ECM Op runs but they are still moving in that direction.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Mucka

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

So,we have GFS/NOGAOS looking reasonable and UKMO/GEM looking vile.

Over to you ECM,im really hoping it sticks to its guns this morning although the ukmo is a big concern hand on heart ive been expecting a ecm backtrack for the last 24hours,i'd personally be amazed if we dont see something similar to ukmo on the 0zrun.

[Mucka]

So,we have GFS/NOGAOS looking reasonable and UKMO/GEM looking vile.

Over to you ECM,im really hoping it sticks to its guns this morning although the ukmo is a big concern hand on heart ive been expecting a ecm backtrack for the last 24hours,i'd personally be amazed if we dont see something similar to ukmo on the 0zrun.

UKMO is wrong I reckon. I've never seen a col over such a large area and last for so long. I'm sure trough wouldn't just melt away like that and leave nothingness behind.

It will be interesting to compare the fax charts with it.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Mucka

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO is wrong I reckon. I've never seen a col over such a large area and last for so long. I'm sure trough wouldn't just melt away like that and leave nothingness behind.

It will be interesting to compare the fax charts with it.

lets hope you are right mucka because we are a million miles away from anything cold at 144h,and i mean a million miles,look at the size of that PV,its HUGE.

[bluearmy]

Not expecting the ecm to be consistent. The west atlantic shortwave will likely have a slight positive tilt or even be less of a feature ( kudos to 12z gfs yesterday if that happens).

Lets see what the run churns out but not hopeful and back to bed.