Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards

[Snowman.]

Come on undercut!

[Panayiotis]

UKMO and ECM at 144hrs look quite similar if you ask me! GFS on its own at this timeframe...

Edited February 2, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Stu_London]

high risk route from GFS

Most of the cold will be in europe based on this evolution.

[Snowman.]

Chilly....

UKMO and ECM at 144hrs look quite similar if you ask me! GFS on its own at this timeframe...

You see that the GFS removes the low off the Eastern seaboard causing it to go mental.

[weather eater]

UKMO and ECM at 144hrs look quite similar if you ask me! GFS on its own at this timeframe...

And the GFS looks completely different. as you have just noted in your edit, blast.

Edited February 2, 2013 by weather eater

[polarlow2]

I'm sorry, 'snow hurricane'? I know very little about model-reading, but when has this country ever had a snow hurricane?? Seriously, you just have to use your common sense to understand how likely to varify some forecasts are!

[Weathizard]

Quite a bizzare GFS run, don't think it will get there personally but when I see a strange new route like this being taken it makes me think a backtrack could be on the cards soon. UKMO sticks with its 00z and the ECM 0z which is a good sign, hope the ECM stays on board this evening.

[Snowman.]

Low res just tramples over are Displaced azores high.

But it was going to go under.

Now your going to ridge into Greenland

Honestly this model has no idea what it is doing.

[mulzy]

In my opinion tonight's UKMO (at 144h), though similar to this morning's ECM, is slightly more progressive. We need that low off the eastern seaboard to be more north west.

Edited February 2, 2013 by mulzy

[That ECM]

GFS and UKMO has not really shown us anything we have not seen or thought before. Bit further west by GFS but no further forward IMO. ECM may give us more indication.

[Methuselah]

GFS and UKMO has not really shown us anything we have not seen or thought before. Bit further west by GFS but no further forward IMO. ECM may give us more indication.

'No further forward' to where exactly: is the weather supposed to be going somewhere?

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel...hp?mode=2&ech=6

well the gfs is saying chilly and wintry weather up to at least 192 hr at the moment

s

[karyo]

In my opinion tonight's UKMO (at 144h), though similar to this morning's ECM, is slightly more progressive. We need that low off the eastern seaboard to be more north west.

Yes, the 144hour UKMO is not going to lead to anything cold!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Karyo

[Panayiotis]

Yes, the 144hour UKMO is not going to lead to anything cold!

http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

Karyo

How do you know? To me it looks similar to the ECM and looked where that went! Edited February 2, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Stu_London]

I'm sorry, 'snow hurricane'? I know very little about model-reading, but when has this country ever had a snow hurricane?? Seriously, you just have to use your common sense to understand how likely to varify some forecasts are!

No country has ever had a snow hurricane.

Anyway back to the GFS 12z - plenty of interest next weekend as battleground situation sets up - could be a 2 day wonder but worth looking at.

Ironically, IanFs comments earlier on MOGREPS were replicated by the GFS (messy battleground next weekend, followed by NWesterlies)

Has to be the strong odds on favourite now - doubt we will get an easterly (Don't think UKMO is heading that way at 144) and fully expect a ECM climb down, if not tonight, in the next couple of runs.

Despite verification stats, ECM poor for me this winter - if fact all models have performed less well than previous years which is not what you would expect.

[karyo]

How do you know? To me it looks similar to the ECM and looked where that went!

Because the Atlantic low can only move east/northeast as there is no pressure rise over Scandi and the northeast.

Not enough amplification and the Atlantic flow rides on top of the high bringing us less cold uppers.

Karyo

[MR EXTREMES]

Everything looks further west by around 100 miles on the GFS 12Hz compared to GFS 06Hz (at Wed noon) which is good for keeping these showers pushing south over the UK.

However what impact (if any) will this have further down the line.

i tell ya now steve murr was on the money he said the gfs would backtrack and it has not spectacular but look and the cold pooling at the end of the run its a better run in the right direction.

[Methuselah]

How do you know? To me it looks similar to the ECM and looked where that went!

How does anybody know, eh? If anybody really did, what would be the use of £multi-million computer models?

Edit: I meant regarding the weather, of course...

Edited February 2, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

No country has ever had a snow hurricane.

Anyway back to the GFS 12z - plenty of interest next weekend as battleground situation sets up - could be a 2 day wonder but worth looking at.

Ironically, IanFs comments earlier on MOGREPS were replicated by the GFS (messy battleground next weekend, followed by NWesterlies)

Has to be the strong odds on favourite now - doubt we will get an easterly (Don't think UKMO is heading that way at 144) and fully expect a ECM climb down, if not tonight, in the next couple of runs.

Despite verification stats, ECM poor for me this winter - if fact all models have performed less well than previous years which is not what you would expect.

Yes, the 144hour UKMO is not going to lead to anything cold!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Karyo

Can you two show me charts or evidence that the ukmo is not going toward to an easterly? It's a carbon copy of the ECM , the truth is we don't know we can only speculate , but to say those words above is nothing other than incorrect I'm afraid.

Edited February 2, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[cold snap]

i have to agree with stu.ecm post 144 this winter has been shambolic,we will see the ecm go with the gfs later i feel however it could of been a worse gfs run.

[snowmadchrisuk]

No Gaps has moved nearer towards ECM , there upgrade is due this month , not sure if it has been done yet , but when it has been , it may be able to compete better with the other 3.

[Yarmy]

No country has ever had a snow hurricane.

Anyway back to the GFS 12z - plenty of interest next weekend as battleground situation sets up - could be a 2 day wonder but worth looking at.

Ironically, IanFs comments earlier on MOGREPS were replicated by the GFS (messy battleground next weekend, followed by NWesterlies)

Has to be the strong odds on favourite now - doubt we will get an easterly (Don't think UKMO is heading that way at 144) and fully expect a ECM climb down, if not tonight, in the next couple of runs.

Despite verification stats, ECM poor for me this winter - if fact all models have performed less well than previous years which is not what you would expect.

So it's poor despite the objective unbiased fact that it isn't?

[Methuselah]

i have to agree with stu.ecm post 144 this winter has been shambolic,we will see the ecm go with the gfs later i feel however it could of been a worse gfs run.

But, until after it's happened, who can say it's wrong? Not that FI is often right...

[MR EXTREMES]

Can you two show me charts or evidence that the ukmo is not going toward to an easterly? It's a carbon copy of the ECM , the truth is we don't know we can only speculate , but to say those words above is nothing other than incorrect I'm afraid.

atlast a voice of reason sometimes i really get the hump by some post theres never much reasoning with in these posts.

ok ukmo at t144

right gfs thats clear to see has backtracked to some degree

t144

and this mornings ecm at t144 judge for yourselfs

gem at t144

and jma which is regarded fairly good by the ukmo at t144

[Frosty.]

Plenty of cold weather on the Gfs 12z operational run, a cold windy spell for the majority of next week with sunshine and snow/hail showers, especially around the coasts and with widespread frosts, then pressure rising with a fine and frosty weekend and start to the following week, briefly milder air following then cold and unsettled with a southerly tracking jet and strong westerly winds of arctic origins. There are still a lot of issues though because at the same time as the ridge is building northeastwards across the uk next friday, today's meto update said rain, sleet and snow would be pushing across the uk next friday so another gfs run which probably doesn't look like verifying, but the reliable timeframe shows a good arctic blast, lets enjoy that and hope for better after. : )