Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards

[Snowman.]

Im sorry but GFS has made it self look even more on its own and remove the feature that is been displayed on every model.

The low off the eastern seaboard is what happens to change are weather.

Now this is the GFS

Poof!

Gone vanished all other models show it 12z just takes it out resulting in something that is fairly similar to last year -8 uppers in SE and +4 Uppers in the NW.

Until I see another model look like the GFS then im sorry im siding with the UKMO and ECM

[Froze were the Days]

UKMO at 144z shows less heights towards Greenland of the developing low off the Canadian seaboard and possibly might show the first tentative signs of toppling (to a degree) the Azores High unfortunately.

Edited February 2, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[ChartViewer]

But, until after it's happened, who can say it's wrong? Not that FI is often right...

Agree with my rival....Love our win today RP ....4th is Arsenal's.....Back to models..............Every Winter its chaotic after T144.......Just go back and view the 3 big guns after T144 in many of the memorable disasters......2010 being different...The rest were a rollercoaster of emotions...2005 being particuarly emotional.....December was a bit like that after THAT ECM..........Ive been here 6 years plus...Winters are always a rollercoaster

Edited February 2, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Richie V]

Lol, GFS is an utter pigs breakfast after t +111

[weather eater]

No country has ever had a snow hurricane.

Anyway back to the GFS 12z - plenty of interest next weekend as battleground situation sets up - could be a 2 day wonder but worth looking at.

Ironically, IanFs comments earlier on MOGREPS were replicated by the GFS (messy battleground next weekend, followed by NWesterlies)

Has to be the strong odds on favourite now - doubt we will get an easterly (Don't think UKMO is heading that way at 144) and fully expect a ECM climb down, if not tonight, in the next couple of runs.

Despite verification stats, ECM poor for me this winter - if fact all models have performed less well than previous years which is not what you would expect.

We shall have to wait and see, I think we have seen too many posts along the lines of the, ECM must be right because the GFS got it wrong last time, but I’m afraid that’s not a logical argument, while the ECM has the best verification states, the GFS still trumps it fairly often and in all situations. As regards model performance this winter, I can’t say I’ve noticed it being any worse this year than any other.

The truth of the matter in terms of model projections is that whatever is showing, by whichever model in the post 144hrs range, will in all probability be wrong, especially for our small blob on the edge of the Atlantic. A great deal of the time post 144hrs even the broad picture is highly likely to be way off. Being able to read charts is a great skill but when it comes to 144hrs plus it’s like trying to make sense of a book whose middle and last chapters never get written, or a book in serial form whose author keeps changing the plot.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I find it hard to believe that if the low predicted on Wednesday verify's , that there would be hardly any precipitation with it . I have seen areas totally flooded with less severe systems than that.. If that get's a Westward correction by just 50 Miles we could be looking at a crazy Winter storm with Blizzards.

[phil nw.]

Well we still have a mini Arctic spell coming through Mon-Thurs with winds eventually turning northerly bringing snow showers for many areas for a short while.

Differences then between GFS and UKMO with what comes after.GFS collapsing the AH over the UK pushing the coldest air towards the continent.

At least with the UKMO the Atlantic is held at bay as the AH ridges north but there`s little sign of a push from the east at that point.

Whether it would go on to develop any heights to the NE remains to be seen as without then the coldest air will likely remain out of reach.

Let`s see if the ECM continues it`s retrograde trend of earlier.

Edited February 2, 2013 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

Lol, GFS is an utter pigs breakfast after t +111

it looks ok to me, hardly a mild day on the whole run, still I hope for better from the ecm, not long to wait now.

[Zenarcher]

GFS 2 days ago had the Atlantic ridging slightly more flatter than what it is currently showing.

For the 6th today

2 days ago

Ridging more amplified today which makes it move more North.

The UKMO was slightly more closer to the mark for the 6th

What it says today for the 6th,

And 2 days ago

It also had the ridging not as far North but today we see it upgrade it.

The ECM has also done the same thing and upgraded the ridging, today's 12z GFS at 144 hours doesn't create that atlantic low we see the UKMO does. The ECM has shown the low to do something more like the UKMO for a while now 2 days ago at 192 hours it picked up on it,

And this morning now at 144 hours its still there which the UKMO agrees on,

Also the UKMO 00z this morning showed the low there so the UKMO and ECM showing similar ideas at this time range and the GFS hasn't really shown anything consistent with this each run it's changing around. I would have more faith in the models that are agreeing on each other and being consistent that just one model showing different ideas each run with no support.

Edited February 2, 2013 by weathermaster

[Frosty.]

At least we know that next friday is the pivotal day, will the azores high wreck the party or can we continue to see the ecm trend with the uk becoming locked in the freezer with heavy widespread snow showers, the crucial mid feb period hangs in the balance although the meto sound confident that our pattern will be coming in from the west or northwest rather than from the northeast, but it's still outside the reliable timeframe so all to play for still.

Edited February 2, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

As has been said later next week will be crucial for the cold spell will the Atlantic win out or not?

Well UKMO and GFS go for the Atlantic

[Frosty.]

RJS made a prediction of a snow hurricane early next week, seems he will be close since I have just heard a bbc forecast saying winds of 60-80mph in scotland on monday with lots of heavy squally snow showers..well done roger

[Timmytour]

I remain convinced that the GFS will have ended up calling this one closer to how it actually pans out. Not too disappointed with it from an IMBY perspective as there's quite a bit of cold there, but nothing like the snow opportunities the last cold spell had.

One feature i like to see to get me excited about a potential prolonged easterly is the ridging of warm air towards Greenland with a SE to NW. In the charts weathermaster showed above, the ECM and UKMO were showing that to a small extent but have now moved to a more S to N. In fact the GFS moves slightly the other way, but none of them are enough to convince me that anything epic is in the offing.

i expect a backtrack from the ECM tonight. And by next week we'll know which one was closest, and the only two guarantees will be that none of them will be on the button and all of them won't be totally wrong!

[Panayiotis]

As has been said later next week will be crucial for the cold spell will the Atlantic win out or not?

Well UKMO and GFS go for the Atlantic

Sorry but I dont see the Atlantic winning in the charts you have posted?!

[nick sussex]

As has been said later next week will be crucial for the cold spell will the Atlantic win out or not?

Well UKMO and GFS go for the Atlantic

Lol! is this post serious?

The GFS in the higher resolution had a snow event and remained cold upto 180hrs and we don't know what happens next with the UKMO ie the shortwave could track se into the continent with a build of pressure to the ne.

So theres no win for the Atlantic, it might well do later on but we don't know yet.

[ChartViewer]

I remain convinced that the GFS will have ended up calling this one closer to how it actually pans out. Not too disappointed with it from an IMBY perspective as there's quite a bit of cold there, but nothing like the snow opportunities the last cold spell had.

One feature i like to see to get me excited about a potential prolonged easterly is the ridging of warm air towards Greenland with a SE to NW. In the charts weathermaster showed above, the ECM and UKMO were showing that to a small extent but have now moved to a more S to N. In fact the GFS moves slightly the other way, but none of them are enough to convince me that anything epic is in the offing.

i expect a backtrack from the ECM tonight. And by next week we'll know which one was closest, and the only two guarantees will be that none of them will be on the button and all of them won't be totally wrong!

Well one wont be that wrong mate although i am with you on this the ECM Op will be back tracking towards a middle ground tonight...Shame.

Edited February 2, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Panayiotis]

Any showers will be in the form of snow looking at the 72hrs ECM and combined with the wind, you wont want to be driving/walking anywhere especially if you live up north!

[Panayiotis]

Going as planned with the ECM at 120hrs slightly stronger heights to the north...

[Tom Jarvis]

I'm on my phone at the moment but to my eyes it looks like the ECM has upgraded height to the north.

I can see a few people ending up with eggs on there face and backtracking like the GFS will do!!!

[SMU]

If we compare the 168 06z GFS with the 162 12z GFS

12z 168

06z 174

we see that the GFS is raising the drawbridge- resurecting that high- classic GFS fail. just like the last spell-

Im sure I demonstrated the same GFS failing with that low splittling & dropping south 3 weeks ago.

Watch 12z tomorrow it will be more or less there.

& this is what its aiming at-

If East was 0 degrees & North was round to 90 then the target landing zone is about 75/80 degrees-

The 06z was about 10 degrees the 12z was about 20, so expect 15 degree increments north from 18z GFS 00z GFS 06z GFS & finally tomorrows 12z...

thats the forecast anyway as the GFS is useless. its cannon fodder.

S

Edited February 2, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Ice Day]

144 doesn't look too shoddy!!

[Ali1977]

I wonder what Ian f's thoughts are in the ECM

[Panayiotis]

Where it does it go from here? Looks similar to the UKMO if it ends up cold then probably the UKMO will follow, we shall see.

00z (left) 12z (middle) UKMO (right)

Edited February 2, 2013 by Panayiotis

[chionomaniac]

The ECM and UKMO T+144 are very similar. The GFS is not.

[Cheshire Freeze]

No back down from ECM operational to 144 hours. You have to favour the ECM given the past failures of other models recently. Very consistent for 4-5 runs now.Put it this way, I'd be very surprised to see an ECM backtrack now; great inter run consistency

Edited February 2, 2013 by CreweCold