scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 05/02/13 08 -------->

[cscrim]

why is it so quiet in here today when we have two models hinting at a greenland solution

can't help but feel the way majority of this winter has gone, chasing pots of gold, may have caused fatigue amongst some/many.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm still in a bit of a holding position with this one, since a degree or so difference in the uppers would make an enormous difference, and all that would take is a better angle of flow developing in the next 24 hours. NAE gets there by early Monday morning, but up to then we do have to deal with southeasterly winds with a lack of proper cold pooling:

The difference between what was progged and what is now progged is pretty clear:

Fortunately, while the shape of the low isn't helpful, the run on run southwards movement of the low could easily see things tip our way.

And of course there's plenty of winter left after that:

[Buriedundersnow]

LS what do u make of the ECM 0z and GFS 6z both going through a similar evolution and GFS 6z going for a full on greenland high and the ECM hinting towards the same solution if it was to go on another frame or two

[GraemeB]

I'm more interested in what's coming on Wednesday....

[Buriedundersnow]

I'm still in a bit of a holding position with this one, since a degree or so difference in the uppers would make an enormous difference, and all that would take is a better angle of flow developing in the next 24 hours. NAE gets there by early Monday morning, but up to then we do have to deal with southeasterly winds with a lack of proper cold pooling:

The difference between what was progged and what is now progged is pretty clear:

Fortunately, while the shape of the low isn't helpful, the run on run southwards movement of the low could easily see things tip our way.

And of course there's plenty of winter left after that:

looks likely another non event for us in falkirk again

[LomondSnowstorm]

LS what do u make of the ECM 0z and GFS 6z both going through a similar evolution and GFS 6z going for a full on greenland high and the ECM hinting towards the same solution if it was to go on another frame or two

It's very interesting and not at all surprising IMO, the ensembles have been hinting at this for a while and if the Canadian vortex plays ball it's quite easy to envisage a Greenland high setting up. I think to be honest we've done rather well given the absence of heights over Greenland, but wouldn't it be great to finish winter off with something like this:

[Buriedundersnow]

I'm more interested in what's coming on Wednesday....

yeah wednesday looks like there could be a fair bit of snow around

[Buriedundersnow]

It's very interesting and not at all surprising IMO, the ensembles have been hinting at this for a while and if the Canadian vortex plays ball it's quite easy to envisage a Greenland high setting up. I think to be honest we've done rather well given the absence of heights over Greenland, but wouldn't it be great to finish winter off with something like this:

totally and its something we will have to keep an eye on.

its been that long i cant remember if both the GFS and ECM have had the same sort of solution like they have this morning seems to be quite a while they have both been on different tracks and not agreeing with each other

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM tuesday night midnight

ECM wednesday night midnight

uppers are on there way up so it might start as snow but for lower levels might turn to rain before it has pushed through as uppers rise

[Cheggers]

Usual pish here.

Nae change!

[skyeblue]

Bus must have burned his laptop oot

[Buriedundersnow]

well at this point this afternoon the GFS is the only model showing anything that might see us prolonging the cold spell past this weekend and possibly to a lengthy cold spell as it is the only model going for a second slider low and the UKMO and ECM look like there more wanting to send energy over the block so i thought i would do a little post on the gfs and what i would like to see evolving from its 12z run and hopefully the other two can come towards this.

i might be wrong as still learning and hopefully LS can tell me later if i am right.

i am posting three charts from the 12z GFS on the first one u can see the LP between greenland and iceland which is the second attempt at a slider now in the second chart we see the energy in that LP splitting as it starts to slide and in the third chart we see the energy backing west aswell as trying to slide under the block.

now i would much more prefer to see that LP stay more intact and the whole thing sliding under the block which would allow ridging in the atlantic and also promote the block to retrogress towards greenland and totally block off the atlantic and this would fall into line with upper air patterns forecast for the period and would lengthen the cold spell and give us every chance of an OMEGA BLOCK setting up with the PV segment over canada pulling away to the pole and i feel if this doesnt happen we might see that PV moving back to canada.

this is the best solution of the top three and hopefully in future runs the other two will come into line here instead of wanting to force energy over the top of the block but as always its just a case of waiting and watching

would also like to add i feel if we can get things to go how i have explained and get an OMEGA BLOCK setup then if that piece of PV decides to come back to our side of the hemisphere then theres every chance it will drop down the east of greenland and into our back yard

now i posted this yesterday and i wanted to come back to this as i still feel it is relevant with the overnight model runs as over night we have seen the ECM come towards the GFS and the UKMO is kind of pushing in this direction aswell now the GFS has the same evolution but as u will see in the chart i am posting it has moved back a little from wednesday afternoon till over night on wednesday night.

both GFS and ECM now are toying with hieght rises for greenland later in there runs but i still feel if we look at the GFS for wednesday night with a correction west and if that second slider can just go clean instead of leaving energy behind south of greenland we could see those hieght rises in greenland by next weekend aslong as that second slider takes all of its energy into the continent and that cannot be ruled out this far out as being a possible outcome.

now this is something i feel we should still keep our eyes on over the next few days as if that slider gets resolved and does go clean we might see something appearing in the models quite quickly

now as u can see from this second chart from the GFS 6z aswell but a little further in the run once the slider goes we see ridgeing from the atlantic and like i said with a little westward correction and if that slider pulls through quicker and takes its energy that ridgeing could easily end up heading straight for greenland and i will be watching this closely to see how things go.

two carts below are from ECM and UKMO to show they have come slightly towards the GFS with regards of wanting to send energy under the block instead of over the top and we want to see this continue as i feel GFS has come from the joke model and may have come up with the golden solution

Bus must have burned his laptop oot

nah not yet lol

just busy watching the football as both my teams are on live today

Edited February 9, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS 6z

GFS 12z

notheast correction on the first slider which is what we ant to see for snow prospects

[Norrance]

Dull, cool and damp here today. 4c.

Is the greenie high finally going to appear later in the month? Met longer range now thinking that way.

Meanwhile things looking a lot brighter down at murrayfield

[Buriedundersnow]

quite a northeast correction on the NAE aswell

snow prospects look to be going up today and long may that continue

Edited February 9, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[BleakMidwinter]

Ok, now I'm scared.

It's the End of the World, isn't it?

First sign - nae snaw

Second sign - Scotland won a rugby match

There'll be a third sign and then... we'rrrre a' doomed! DOOMED!

[Buriedundersnow]

well done scotland nice to see a good win at the rugby for a change

[lorenzo]

Fantastic effort from Scotland today.

Italy had no time to think, no time to play. Constantly right in their faces with tackle after tackle, completely bossed it and 2 home games to follow... Keeps things interesting.

Great to have something to cheer on in the 6 nations after last year being such a low.

Bring on the ECM 12z Greenland High to cap off a magic afternoon !

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS 12z looks to be having a bit of a mare if u run through the charts on netweather from 99hr forward quite quickly the jetstream line is jumping around just doesnt look right

[Cheggers]

Well done Scotland, great game, and 4 try's. Now we just need Blitzen to post this type of photo....

[edo]

I can't watch anymore, so jealous I wish we could get snow like that As for our Snow prospects I'm not that disappointed we're missing out this weekend, as I was kinda of expecting it. Disappointment has became the theme of this years winter for me, roll on Winter 2013/14

keep the faith Ally still a chance of decent easterly sun night/mon and a greenie high so winter not over yet...its been a really decent one but frustratingly close to a great one

[Buriedundersnow]

just watched the bbc forecast there and didnt look much in the way of snow

[blitzen]

Well done Scotland, great game, and 4 try's. Now we just need Blitzen to post this type of photo....

Wanni' buy a snawblower fir yersel pal? Only twa years auld an' niver bin oot o' its boax!!!(Erse!!)

Seriously Cheggers....It would be a good buy...well at least according to the flying dutchman on the model thread it would..

"End for this reason - en another factors, we are up to something really big. The real cold was very long time closed locked up near the sea of Kara. It want to rolle out! End for this reason I had totally different vision than the other masters! They had only expected on the MJO forecast that there would be warming around 10 - 13th Februari but I didn't think so. I think we are in for a big surprise!"

See! there you go, can't argue with that!......... God love 'im!

Edited February 9, 2013 by Blitzen

[Guest]

Lets hope they are right I've had less snow in Aberdeenshire than I had in kilmacolm :-/

You went the wrong way Jon. Even in '93 the drifts weren't as big in Kilmacolm as they were here two weeks ago. Some of the drifts are still here almost three weeks later, which is an indication of the size of them

Edited February 9, 2013 by CatchMyDrift

[jon_d1983]

CMD I'm begining to think that!! Need that easterly like 2010/2011 to arrive up here.