scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 05/02/13 08 -------->

[Buriedundersnow]

i'll bank the 06z ppn charts from the GFS 36hrs of snow would be good

Edited February 8, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

UKMO shows the front making it into scotland on the sunday night monday morning aswell a little wierd the GFS and UKMO have the front coming in at different times even this close out and for some reason this has put the charts the wrong way round 60hr at the right and 72hr at the left

Edited February 8, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

f**k too much left trouser legin bout on the computer missed the national weather forecast and u just know they wont show sunday and monday on the scottish forecast

hahahahaha how did that change lmao

Edited February 8, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM doesnt even have the front making it into scotland at all just shows the trouble in the models at such a close timeframe and if they cant decide that then the rest of the runs must be affected

[101_North]

On balance I think I'd be more concerned if things were looking perfect with 48hrs to go!

[Buriedundersnow]

On balance I think I'd be more concerned if things were looking perfect with 48hrs to go!

yeah thats a fair point as then the only way it could go is wrong atleast we have some movement towards the right solution

[Buriedundersnow]

hopefully this weekend is going to be the one that blows the falkirk area snow shield to bits and we see a decenty dump here for a change this winter

soz for all the posts folks doing some decorating and hate doing it so been banging redbull all morning to get me in the mood to get off my backside

Edited February 8, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

12z nae looks good out at 48hr its picking up that front moving into scotland and turning to snow and hopefully the 18z will show that front making furhter progress east across the country

if we can get that LP centred more towards london in later runs then that should move the front east to hit more of the country

Edited February 8, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

uppers and dew points look good and once the winds turn more easterly look at the uppers sitting out in the north sea waiting to move in.

[JoeShmoe]

uppers and dew points look good and once the winds turn more easterly look at the uppers sitting out in the north sea waiting to move in.

Not overly sure why people are faffing over some frontal snow which rarely delivers at low levels, soon as the winds back east is when the fun starts

[101_North]

Not overly sure why people are faffing over some frontal snow which rarely delivers at low levels, soon as the winds back east is when the fun starts

Certainly never delivers in these parts! I guess my interest in the front is mainly hoping that it doesn't get into a position to spoil what might come later! Radar watching is more fun with convective showers

[Buriedundersnow]

Not overly sure why people are faffing over some frontal snow which rarely delivers at low levels, soon as the winds back east is when the fun starts

have to disagree with u a little there i live practically at sea level here in stenhousemuir and i have three snowfalls that have stuck this winter and two of they three have been from frontal snowfall.

i think with this one where the front is to move in then pivot and pull in an easterly then we will sea frontal snow to all levels then the cold uppers and that will move in straight after and will help with convection off the north sea and we will see showers to follow on after.

[Buriedundersnow]

just one last thing to add on the NAE is the ppn accum and if we were to see some northeast correction to affect more of the country then there is alot of moisture to come out of that front and could be some big totals

sorry was ment to show this chart aswell which only shows the front itself

Edited February 8, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Ravelin]

Not overly sure why people are faffing over some frontal snow which rarely delivers at low levels, soon as the winds back east is when the fun starts

Probably because most of those 'faffing' are in central and western England that don't benefit from an easterly convective setup?

I agree with you though, usually an E or NE flow off the North Sea is more interesting. It certainly is more fun watching the radar feed and trying to guess which one of the showers is going to hit you, and when. That's not to say I wouldn't happily take a bit of frontal snowfall followed by bright, cold days with convective showers.

[JoeShmoe]

have to disagree with u a little there i live practically at sea level here in stenhousemuir and i have three snowfalls that have stuck this winter and two of they three have been from frontal snowfall.

i think with this one where the front is to move in then pivot and pull in an easterly then we will sea frontal snow to all levels then the cold uppers and that will move in straight after and will help with convection off the north sea and we will see showers to follow on after.

yes, my bad, was being a little east biased there

[Big Innes Madori]

BurriedUnder!

You been oan the E110 this Efty?

More posts than the Royal Mail mate

Big Innes

Edited February 8, 2013 by Big Innes Madori

[Buriedundersnow]

BurriedUnder!

You been oan the E110 this Efty?

More posts than the Royal Mail mate

Big Innes

nah just the redbull and a little note for anyone thinking of doing redbull before decorating open the tin of paint first as shakey redbull hands and a screwdriver dont mix very well stabbed myself in the hand twice

[edo]

http://www.amber-tee...CFdQ92wodbxYA2A

Homeopathic way of dealing with teething, works on a variety of other ailments. My sister uses for migraines.

Nice frost on the ground this morning.

magic cheers cheggers after 1 hr of sleep last night I shall be investigating

[edo]

nah just the redbull and a little note for anyone thinking of doing redbull before decorating open the tin of paint first as shakey redbull hands and a screwdriver dont mix very well stabbed myself in the hand twice

Cheers BUS you have been doing a sterling job recently taking pressure off young LS whilst he deserts us at times to phanny aboot with physics .... its much appreciated keep up the good work

[Buriedundersnow]

well at this point this afternoon the GFS is the only model showing anything that might see us prolonging the cold spell past this weekend and possibly to a lengthy cold spell as it is the only model going for a second slider low and the UKMO and ECM look like there more wanting to send energy over the block so i thought i would do a little post on the gfs and what i would like to see evolving from its 12z run and hopefully the other two can come towards this.

i might be wrong as still learning and hopefully LS can tell me later if i am right.

i am posting three charts from the 12z GFS on the first one u can see the LP between greenland and iceland which is the second attempt at a slider now in the second chart we see the energy in that LP splitting as it starts to slide and in the third chart we see the energy backing west aswell as trying to slide under the block.

now i would much more prefer to see that LP stay more intact and the whole thing sliding under the block which would allow ridging in the atlantic and also promote the block to retrogress towards greenland and totally block off the atlantic and this would fall into line with upper air patterns forecast for the period and would lengthen the cold spell and give us every chance of an OMEGA BLOCK setting up with the PV segment over canada pulling away to the pole and i feel if this doesnt happen we might see that PV moving back to canada.

this is the best solution of the top three and hopefully in future runs the other two will come into line here instead of wanting to force energy over the top of the block but as always its just a case of waiting and watching

would also like to add i feel if we can get things to go how i have explained and get an OMEGA BLOCK setup then if that piece of PV decides to come back to our side of the hemisphere then theres every chance it will drop down the east of greenland and into our back yard

Edited February 8, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[LomondSnowstorm]

On a bus at the moment so I'm unable to fully brief but you're right BUS, once the Canadian PV goes then all it takes is for the energy to undercut and we have some proper blocking setting up to the north with the chance of that Siberian vortex throwing us a bit of PV or at least some very cold uppers in a northeasterly flow. The jet looks on its last legs, just one final knock out blow after this would do I feel ( and that's even if this easterly doesn't end lasting longer). GFS 12Z could be better I feel in the short term, other models look fairly epic I think.

[lorenzo]

NMM zoning in on the Snaw for the weekend, Sunday morning looking healthy with a steady build up overnight.

Would be perfect if a nice covering is achieved for the weekend, could finally get the kids out on the sledge!

[Buriedundersnow]

NMM zoning in on the Snaw for the weekend, Sunday morning looking healthy with a steady build up overnight.

Would be perfect if a nice covering is achieved for the weekend, could finally get the kids out on the sledge!

what do u think the chances are at this short range of maybe seeing some northeast correction on future runs

[skyeblue]

Sat24 rain radar Sunday /Monday is perfect . 24hr + Snowfall

You did not here it from me thou .don't want any come backs

Just check it oot & make your own mind up !!!

[Buriedundersnow]

Sat24 rain radar Sunday /Monday is perfect . 24hr + Snowfall

You did not here it from me thou .don't want any come backs

Just check it oot & make your own mind up !!!

where can i find it